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Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:25 PM

Joe Manchin votes with Republicans 54% of the time (from 2018)

Last edited Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:39 PM - Edit history (2)

From his own website:


Senator Manchin Votes with President Trump. Click here to learn more.

Since 2011, no Democrat currently serving in the Senate has split with the party more often, including 80 votes in which Senator Manchin was the only Democrat to break with his party and vote with the majority of Senate Republicans.
Overall, Senator Manchin has voted with the majority of Senate Republicans on 1,172 different votes or 54% of the votes he has taken as a United States Senator.


https://www.manchin.senate.gov/about/bipartisanship/legislation

The last two years is one thing. The last ten years is something else entirely. Something he is proud of, apparently.

On edit:

The link is of course from a couple years back when he was running for re-election last. However Manchin's voting record shows that in the last 3 congresses combined, he voted with Republicans and Trump 50.4% of the time.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/

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Reply Joe Manchin votes with Republicans 54% of the time (from 2018) (Original post)
ColinC Dec 2021 OP
LoisB Dec 2021 #1
ColinC Dec 2021 #3
LenaBaby61 Dec 2021 #24
andym Dec 2021 #2
ColinC Dec 2021 #4
Budi Dec 2021 #13
ColinC Dec 2021 #14
Budi Dec 2021 #15
qazplm135 Dec 2021 #9
Celerity Dec 2021 #25
BlueCheeseAgain Dec 2021 #5
ColinC Dec 2021 #7
Budi Dec 2021 #16
redstateblues Dec 2021 #6
JustAnotherGen Dec 2021 #8
ColinC Dec 2021 #10
Budi Dec 2021 #17
ColinC Dec 2021 #18
Budi Dec 2021 #23
ColinC Dec 2021 #28
Budi Dec 2021 #29
karynnj Dec 2021 #69
ColinC Dec 2021 #70
karynnj Dec 2021 #76
ColinC Dec 2021 #77
DLevine Dec 2021 #11
LenaBaby61 Dec 2021 #26
Fiendish Thingy Dec 2021 #12
Budi Dec 2021 #27
Hortensis Dec 2021 #71
Budi Dec 2021 #73
Hortensis Dec 2021 #75
Colgate 64 Dec 2021 #19
ColinC Dec 2021 #20
Calista241 Dec 2021 #21
ColinC Dec 2021 #22
Calista241 Dec 2021 #40
George II Dec 2021 #30
ColinC Dec 2021 #31
George II Dec 2021 #65
ColinC Dec 2021 #66
George II Dec 2021 #67
ColinC Dec 2021 #68
George II Dec 2021 #72
ColinC Dec 2021 #74
lapucelle Dec 2021 #32
ColinC Dec 2021 #33
lapucelle Dec 2021 #34
ColinC Dec 2021 #35
lapucelle Dec 2021 #36
ColinC Dec 2021 #37
lapucelle Dec 2021 #38
ColinC Dec 2021 #39
lapucelle Dec 2021 #41
ColinC Dec 2021 #42
lapucelle Dec 2021 #43
ColinC Dec 2021 #44
lapucelle Dec 2021 #45
ColinC Dec 2021 #46
lapucelle Dec 2021 #48
ColinC Dec 2021 #49
ColinC Dec 2021 #47
lapucelle Dec 2021 #50
ColinC Dec 2021 #51
lapucelle Dec 2021 #52
ColinC Dec 2021 #53
lapucelle Dec 2021 #54
ColinC Dec 2021 #55
lapucelle Dec 2021 #56
ColinC Dec 2021 #57
lapucelle Dec 2021 #58
ColinC Dec 2021 #59
lapucelle Dec 2021 #60
ColinC Dec 2021 #61
lapucelle Dec 2021 #62
ColinC Dec 2021 #64
UTUSN Dec 2021 #63

Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:27 PM

1. He's bragging about this?!?

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Response to LoisB (Reply #1)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:27 PM

3. Yes. Apparently he ran on it.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #3)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:09 PM

24. THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:27 PM

2. Does Your Member Of Congress Vote With Or Against Biden?

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Response to andym (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:28 PM

4. Not the point. The point is whether they vote with democrats.

Manchin proudly does not.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #4)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:40 PM

13. What? That's a fair question when dolling out criticism

 

Let's list how the others compare.
We really should use this as a guide to judge who's there doing the job they were sent to do, and who's slacking.
I mean, taxpayers a footing a huge amount of $$$ & expect them all to tow the line. Right?

Let me locate the House for starters....who's contributing & earning that taxpayer funded job, with healthcare, retirement, investments & plenty of vacation time, & who's dragging aling at the bottom.

This is an important judge as to whether they should be there or be out.

Let's dig deeper while we're on the subject.



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Response to Budi (Reply #13)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:42 PM

14. I think the fairer question is how they get elected

Is it reasonable to assume that Manchin would have been re elected if he voted with Dems 99% of the time? Probably not.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #14)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:45 PM

15. I don't think reasonable figures into the voting record of any Red State

 

In my opinion anyway.

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Response to andym (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:32 PM

9. He says it

He thinks it's a positive.

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Response to andym (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:10 PM

25. Welp, you (it is usually another poster who used that as his go-to meme and failed every time) can't

claim Manchin as a 100%er anymore, lol.

Which of course he never was, as he was literally the most damaging Dem to Biden's agenda long before this hot steamer of a power play with BBB.

It was just that Manchin did his wrecking and blocking BEFORE final votes were taken, so his infidelity was not measured on the link's table.

That chart always was basically meaningless anyway, as the difference between a perfect record and the lowest score in the Senate for a Dem was only 2 votes for ages, now is only 3. Also NO final vote taken in the Senate or the House by a Dem ever blocked a Biden initiative at the end of day.

The closest any came was again...... drum roll..... Manchin, who sided with the Rethugs against Biden when they passed their anti vaxx resolution, but will be vetoed, and Manchin's voting partners, the Rethugs, do not (of course) have the votes to override.

Meaningless protest votes are DWARFED by Manchin's wreckage, blocking (he forced Neera Tanden to withdraw for OMB head consideration, for example), gutting, and all round obstructionism pre final vote (Sinema's too).


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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:29 PM

5. I suspect that the majority of those were votes with overwhelming majorities.

I'm curious what the stat is for party-line votes, when most of one party votes against most of the other.

Still, it's curious he's actually bragging about this.

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Response to BlueCheeseAgain (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:30 PM

7. To be fair, I think it helped him win re election

...in a ruby red state that voted for Trump by a landslide.

And you make an important point about the crucial votes. Although if he was a deciding vote, the vote wouldn't happen at all most likely if he didn't support it.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:46 PM

16. Yup. Its a ruby red state. He's been there long enough to know the game

 

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:29 PM

6. My Senators vote R 100%. I'd be glad to have him in my state

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:30 PM

8. And right now

Schumer is the Majority Leader.

That's all that matters.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #8)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:32 PM

10. I mean it matters a lot. But only as much or almost as much as voting rights and

BBB

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Response to ColinC (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:49 PM

17. Which wouldn't even be on the discussion table with Sen Maj Leader McConnell.

 

Along with a lot more that Biden has already managed to secure.
Like judges, cabiinet, ambassadors, etc

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Response to Budi (Reply #17)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:55 PM

18. Yeah

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Response to ColinC (Reply #18)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:09 PM

23. Truly sucks that he holds the stack of cards as he does.

 

Its beyond words, actually that of all the things he could do with the power he has right now, he used it to drive Americans into the pending abyss. Those millions who've managed to hold on by the knuckles with the faith in Biden's policy plans.
Sucks worse that McConnell is the alternative.
BBB, BIF should never have been a hard decision at all.


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Response to Budi (Reply #23)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:35 PM

28. Despite some big stuff not passing (still inconclusive on some), I do acknowledge that a lot of good

has come with the democrats controlling the senate agenda. Which obviously would not be the case without Manchin caucusing with the Democrats.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #28)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:45 PM

29. Its a fragile fine line, but power is still in our hands.

 

Schumer & his Dems will get as much done as possible with what they have.
Prob helps that Schumer & our seasoned Democrats have seen enough tough battles to apply those experiences & pull this situation out of the deep rut it's sitting in.

I think this one requires the wisdom of the past.
Ya know?

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Response to ColinC (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:18 PM

69. Have you forgotten what it was like with Majority leader McConnell?

No hearings for nearly a year for Merritt Garland? Every committee investigating the Democratic administration? I remember a comment when we rather unexpectedly won the majority in 2006, that the difference between that nearly identical majority (51 but with Cheney as VP) and winning the House was that we could stop bad things from happening. However, if we could expand that majority, keep the House and elect a Democratic President, we could begin to do good things.

If the Republicans take back EITHER House, we lose the ability to much in the way of good things. We will be left with just those things that can be done by executive order. If Manchin chose to caucus with the Republicans tomorrow - Biden would lose the important ability to get judges approved. In addition, even under reconciliation, we would need one of the Republicans (possibly Manchin) to defy a party filibuster to pass anything.

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Response to karynnj (Reply #69)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:26 PM

70. BBB and Voting rights matter about as much or more than

Not going back to McConnell. BBB represents a badly needed and overdue safety net, finally addressing climate change on some level and addressing our failing infrastructure.

Voting rights represents a safeguard from the encroaching authoritarianism taking over our states and the GOP.

Sorry for being what I hope is just overly cynical, but if both these bills fail, we might as well just hand the gavel back to McConnell.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #70)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 03:02 PM

76. You imply it is a choice and your conclusion sees only the extremes

I think some pieces of BBB will survive - even if they are just the ones Manchin is ok with. On climate change, I think it is possible that some Republicans will vote for a stand alone bill that helps somewhat. In 2009- 2010, if you look at the Senators who indicated that they would support the Senate version of the Markey bill that John Kerry was trying to put together, you would see that there were over 10 Democrats then unwilling to say yes because they were from rust belt states - Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio was an exception and he had worked with Kerry to make the bill more acceptable. There were then several Republicans for it. (Had all the Democrats backed it, it would have had the needed 60 votes.)

As to voting rights, if we can't pass legislation, the DOJ needs to get more involved.

I would rephrase your point to say that getting some help on both BBB and voting rights COULD be important to prevent going back to McConnell. My point is that McConnell being Majority leader precludes anything like BBB, voting rights, women's rights etc and it insures endless investigations of Democrats. It is WORSE than the loss of those two incredibly important bills - because that option INCLUDES not having them and adds lots of even worse things.

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Response to karynnj (Reply #76)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 03:07 PM

77. Yeah I'm getting cynical.

All I can say is I hope you are right and I am wrong. I really, really want to be wrong....

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:35 PM

11. Wow. Bragging about supporting Trump. JFC. nt

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Response to DLevine (Reply #11)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:11 PM

26. THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:40 PM

12. B-b-but his fan club on DU claims he has a "100% Biden loyalty" voting record!

Or, he did until he co sponsored the anti-Biden, anti-vaccine mandate bill…

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #12)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:15 PM

27. His "fan club" doesn't see McConnell as an alternative.

 

His "fan club" knows exactly what McConnell would do with anything of Biden's that crosses his desk.

At least his "fan club" is aware of that shaky misstep of no return.



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Response to Budi (Reply #27)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:37 PM

71. :) I guess if someone's volunteered me I should take

the obviously intended insult as a compliment. I would never want to be mistaken for a frightened ankle-chewer for our party and useful idiot for the other whenever the going gets tough.

Eugene Robinson's a very insightful man, of course, but he's just plain wrong that no one can ignore this reality. Being reactionary is basically the same as being determinedly ignore-ant of reality.


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Response to Hortensis (Reply #71)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 02:26 PM

73. And that is what remains when all the chatter & noise stops.

 

Who prefers hard RW McConnell over Dem Maj Leader Schumer, anyway?

Makes ya wonder after awhile.

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Response to Budi (Reply #73)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 03:02 PM

75. None of those who repeatedly insist we should get rid of Manchin

need anyone to explain what that would mean. They know.

I feel sick thinking about it. Time to think about something else.

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 04:59 PM

19. And probably 100% of the time when it counts... nt

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Response to Colgate 64 (Reply #19)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:01 PM

20. If it counts and he doesn't support the bill, the bill does not go up to a vote

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:01 PM

21. Most Senators, Members of Congress and Presidents would kill for Manchin's 62% approval rating.

In his home state.

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Response to Calista241 (Reply #21)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 05:04 PM

22. Sacrificing your principles to be liked is certainly impressive

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Response to ColinC (Reply #22)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:28 PM

40. I think his principles just don't agree with ours.

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:16 PM

30. The last year is the most important. Until one vote last week he's voted with Biden 100%....

....of the time since Biden took office.

Here are the Senators who are now not at 100%. The 18 that are now at 97.4% were 100% before last week.

Shortly after New Year's Day we'll find out how many votes each has missed, too.

How often the member votes in line with Biden’s position

97.40% Richard Blumenthal D CT
97.40% Robert P. Casey Jr. D PA
97.40% Catherine Cortez Masto D NV
97.40% Richard J. Durbin D IL
97.40% Tim Kaine D VA
97.40% Ben R. Luján D NM
97.40% Joe Manchin D WV
97.40% Jon Ossoff D GA
97.40% Alex Padilla D CA
97.40% Gary C. Peters D MI
97.40% Jacky Rosen D NV
97.40% Charles E. Schumer D NY
97.40% Debbie Stabenow D MI
97.40% Brian Schatz D HI
97.40% Raphael G. Warnock D GA
97.40% Sherrod Brown D OH
97.40% Martin Heinrich D NM
97.40% Tina Smith D MN
97.30% Maria Cantwell D WA
97.10% Mazie K. Hirono D HI
94.90% Tammy Baldwin D WI
94.90% Cory A. Booker D NJ
94.90% Tammy Duckworth D IL
94.90% Edward J. Markey D MA
94.90% Jeff Merkley D OR
94.90% Ron Wyden D OR
94.90% Elizabeth Warren D MA
94.70% Kirsten E. Gillibrand D NY
94.70% Patty Murray D WA
94.70% Chris Van Hollen D MD
92.30% Jon Tester D MT
92.10% Bernard Sanders I VT

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Response to George II (Reply #30)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:22 PM

31. The last year is anecdotal

And based only on votes that went to a vote specifically because he supported them. If he was not the tie breaker, his track record would be far less supportive of the Biden agenda according to his career.


His career shows what kind of democrat he is (conservative democrat who ran on trump's legacy).

There's a reason for it, and he is one of the last of his kind who we rely on for a ton of important things. But there is no denying he has voted (slightly) more with Republicans than he has with democrats.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #31)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 07:51 AM

65. So what votes has he blocked? People keep saying that with no specifics ....

....and keep in mind that BBB is going to be voted upon shortly after the New Year.

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Response to George II (Reply #65)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:00 PM

66. I haven't heard anybody say he blocked any votes.

His being the swing vote, however defeats the purpose of holding a vote without his support. Only votes that he supports actually go to a vote in a 50/50 senate. Contrast that in a non 50/50 senate with the last Congress and we find that he votes with democrats around 50% of the time.



He isn't a toe the line democrat and never was. He is also from West Virginia and needs to be reelected so in the broad scope of things, he's giving us a lot with judges and control of the agenda overall.

And the jury is still out on BBB. I will be ecstatic if that and voting rights get passed.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #66)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:05 PM

67. There have been posts all over this site claiming it.

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Response to George II (Reply #67)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:08 PM

68. I understand the claim to be we don't vote on legislation unless it has 51 votes to pass

The 51st vote is usually Manchin.

Perhaps they think his not supporting a bill is equivalent to blocking it because it likely won't pass without him?


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Response to ColinC (Reply #68)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 02:23 PM

72. The 51st is Vice President Kamala Harris.

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Response to George II (Reply #72)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 02:58 PM

74. While technically true, she is low on the list of holdouts to transformative legislation like BBB

Making Manchin the tie breaking deciding vote as he is a holdout. Because while our 51st vote is guaranteed, our 50th vote is not. Making Manchin functionally more of a 51st vote than Harris -in a manner of speaking.

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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:25 PM

32. Your link says that Trump is still president.

And that page links to data that says Senator Manchin votes with Republicans 50.4% of the time, Senator Sanders votes with Republicans 23% of the time, and Representative Ocasio-Cortez votes with Republicans 18% of the time.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here's data from last week:

Manchin votes with Democrats 97% of the time, Sanders votes with Democrats 92% of the time, and Ocasio-Cortez votes with Democrats 91% of the time.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/joe-manchin/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/bernard-sanders/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/alexandria-ocasio-cortez/

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #32)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:26 PM

33. My link is based on his career. Yours is anecdotal based on only a year.

Also. He ran on voting 54% of the time with Trump. It is less now (based on last three congresses), but this is something he campaigned on.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #33)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:42 PM

34. Your link is to an old, obsolete webpage that has Trump as president.

Your link is not based on on anyone's "career", other than Donald Trump's. And according to your link, Trump is still president. That webpage links to FiveThirtyEight "Votes with Trump Scores".

That's the exact data I cited, along with the most recent "Votes with Biden" scores.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

All of my links are current and the statistics cited are from data analyst Nate Silver's 538 website. To review:

According to DATA last updated on December 15, 2021

Senator Manchin votes with Democrats 97% of the time
Senator Sanders votes with Democrats 92% of the time
Representative Ocasio-Cortez votes with Democrats 91% of the time

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/joe-manchin/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/bernard-sanders/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/alexandria-ocasio-cortez/

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




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Response to lapucelle (Reply #34)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 06:45 PM

35. It's from 2018. it is what he ran on.

My 538 link is up to date and includes the voting records of all senators in the last 3 congresses.

In the last 3 congresses Sanders voted with Democrats 83.9% of the time. Manchin voted with Democrats 49.6% of the time.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #35)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:15 PM

36. And during the same period, Senator Sanders voted with Republicans 24% of the time

and Representative Ocasio-Cortez voted with Republicans 18% of the time.

Trump didn't have three Congresses. The 117th Congress began on January 1, 2021 and will run until January 1, 2023.

While hobbyists and dabblers enjoy entertaining idiosyncratic theories, professional data analyst Nate Silver calculates that given Trump's margin of victory in West Virginia in 2020, Manchin's predicted Votes with Democrats score would be 63%.

Manchin's actual score is 97.4%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-congress-votes/joe-manchin/

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #36)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:19 PM

37. Manchin voted with Republicans almost 2.5 times as much as AOC.

If you include a larger time period, Manchin's vote consistency in voting with Democrats is tenuous at best.

And again, he RAN on a 54% Trump voting record . Which indicates that he wants to be perceived as an independent, Trump supporting Democrat.

And if that 54% was not accurate, one would wonder why he would want to overinflate his support of Trump policies on his own website if he doesn't want people to think he supported Trump.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #37)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:22 PM

38. I'm sure Nate Silver will take it under advisement. N/T

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #38)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:25 PM

39. He gave us the data already. Nothing to advise.

One set of data is in the less than a year timeframe since Trump left. And the rest of the data is in the four years during Trump. Combining the data gives us only a slightly different picture than the four years under Trump. But not too much.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #39)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:37 PM

41. Yes, Nate Silver has given us the data.

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #41)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 07:54 PM

42. There have been 39 votes cast by Manchin this year.

Of those votes, he voted with Democrats 37 times. In the 306 votes prior, he voted with Trump 153 times. If you consider the past votes as voting against Democrats 153 times and vote for democrats 37 times, he has voted with Democrats 190 times out of the last 343 votes giving him a 55% voting record with Democrats.

Compared to sanders who voted with Democrats 35 times in the last year, and 243 in the 2 congresses prior. Sanders has voted 278 times with Democrats out of the last 343 votes giving him an 81% voting record with Democrats.

Source: I counted each individual vote on the 538 site and did the math.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #42)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:15 PM

43. I rely professional statisticians and data analysts for valid, reliable information

and logically sound inferences.

Complex topics like this are best left to experts.

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #43)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:16 PM

44. Basic math can be done by both professional and non professional statististicians

Especially if the professional statisticians lay out the data in a way that can be easily extrapolated.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #44)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:30 PM

45. Easy extrapolation using basic math...

Yes, well that's probably why it's best to rely on professional data scientists with standards and expertise.

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #45)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:32 PM

46. Which I did.

I took the professional's data from 306 votes and combined it with his other data set of 37 votes cast. I used their percentages to determine the exact number of votes cast, and combined the raw numbers to find the new percentage. Scientifically I understand it is usually better to use a larger data set for comparisons and accuracy when trying to draw conclusions, over a smaller one.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #46)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:37 PM

48. This is why people rely on experts.

Extrapolation formula refers to the formula that is used in order to estimate the value of the dependent variable with respect to an independent variable that shall lie in range which is outside of given data set which is certainly known and for calculation of linear exploration using two endpoints (x1, y1) and the (x2, y2) in the linear graph when the value of point which has to be extrapolated is “x”, a formula that can be used is represented as y1+ [(x−x1) / (x2−x1)] *(y2−y1).

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #48)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:40 PM

49. Extrapolation definition

the action of estimating or concluding something by assuming that existing trends will continue or a current method will remain applicable.



Nobody said anything about using a specific fomula outside of the formulas already used (FiveThirtyEight s method of finding a percentage of votes based on voting records).

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #45)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:35 PM

47. Of course even if we don't use my extrapolation, your source's larger data set shows Sanders has a

(115 and 116 congress)far better voting record as voting with Democrats than manchin does.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #47)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:43 PM

50. Yes, it's probably preferable to leave your extrapolation out of it.

Extrapolation Formula refers to the formula that is used in order to estimate the value of the dependent variable with respect to an independent variable that shall lie in range which is outside of given data set which is certainly known and for calculation of linear exploration using two endpoints (x1, y1) and the (x2, y2) in the linear graph when the value of point which has to be extrapolated is “x”, a formula that can be used is represented as y1+ [(x−x1) / (x2−x1)] *(y2−y1).

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #50)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:45 PM

51. Or use a dictionary definition of the word instead of reaching for

Alternative out of context formulas.

But hey. I'm glad you finally agree that a larger data set from your source shows Sanders is a far more reliable democratic vote than Manchin.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #51)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:49 PM

52. I trust experts like Nate Silver with complex topics like data analysis. N/T

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #52)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 08:57 PM

53. Nate silver says

Sanders voted against Trump 76% of the time in the 116th Congress. And Manchin voted against Trump 67.3% of the time in the 116th Congress.

In the 115th Congress, Silver says Manchin voted against Trump 39.3% of the time. And Sanders voted against Trump 86% of the time in the 115th Congress.

Your preferred data set using the 117th congress only includes 37 votes. Mine includes a total of 306 votes.

Sanders is a far more reliable democratic vote (or at least anti Trump vote) in the largest data sets available from Nate Silver. Glad you agree!

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Response to ColinC (Reply #53)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 09:30 PM

54. Your original headline was innaccurate and you conceded that with the edit.

As things stand now, according to Nate Silver, Joe Manchin votes with Democrats 97.4% of the time.

Facts and expertise are our friends. We're Democrats.

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #54)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 09:31 PM

55. Facts and expertise include all the facts. Something you seem relentless in not doing.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #55)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 09:33 PM

56. Data analysis is complex & best left to experts. Statistical "conclusions" reached through dubious

methods ungrounded in either data science or applied mathematics are (at very best) opinions.

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #56)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 09:37 PM

57. Then cite all their data and include ALL their data. Don't be selective about it.

If you really believed in their analysis, you wouldn't be so selective using a myopic set of data. Their data covers the last 3 congresses. Based on that data, Sanders has a far more reliable voting record with Democrats than Manchin does.

If you really believed in the data and analysis, you would concede that. I could tell you only like the data when it suits your argument, though.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #57)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 09:58 PM

58. The data is on FiveThirtyEight. What isn't there is an amateur compilation of unrelated data sets

from which are derived "extrapolations" calculated using nonstandard formulas and decidedly unscientific methods.

Nate Silver does not appear to be a proponent of the Apples and Oranges School of Statistical Calculations. Neither am I.



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Response to lapucelle (Reply #58)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 10:36 PM

59. It is. Which is why I know you are being selective about it.

All the data suggests what Manchin proudly declared on his website: he is not a toe the line democrat who votes all the time with Democrats. And votes far less liberally than Sanders or AOC.

Whether you choose to acknowledge that all of the data suggests this is entirely up to you

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Response to ColinC (Reply #59)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 10:39 PM

60. There's nothing selective about the FiveThirtyEight's organization of unrelated data sets. N/T

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #60)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 10:43 PM

61. That's why you included all the votes since 2017 included on 538, right?

Or did you choose to select only the votes from this year? If you chose to select only a portion of the data to make your case, that is certainly being selective. I, however, choose to see the big picture.

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Response to ColinC (Reply #61)

Mon Dec 20, 2021, 10:54 PM

62. ...

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https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16166691

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Response to lapucelle (Reply #62)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 01:11 AM

64. Relevant because he campaigned on that number

And it was listed on his own website.


It is also far closer to his overall percentage than the ultra isolated and selective number of 97%.

Has Joe Manchin voted with Democrats 97% of the time overall? Or does that number exist because he is the only swing vote and votes are only taken in the senate on bills that we know he will support?


Again I did the math. And Nate Silver did the math. And according to the overall data provided by Nate Silver, Joe Manchin has voted with Democrats about 55% of the time over the last 5 years. You can choose to deflect and say I'm not a statistician but the data provided concludes as much.


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Response to ColinC (Original post)

Tue Dec 21, 2021, 12:23 AM

63. K&R

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