Omicron wave will crash on US with 60% of people infected by March and 140 MILLION new infections -

[Klaralven]

Omicron wave will crash on US with 60% of people infected by March and 140 MILLION new infections - but 90% will never show symptoms, University of Washington warns

Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said Omicron could cause about 140 million new COVID infections from January to March
Infections were expected to peak at 2.8 million new daily cases on January 28
Omicron would eventually infect about 60 percent of all Americans
But the majority will show no symptoms and have fewer hospitalizations and deaths compared to previous surges as Omicron is believed to be milder
Daily deaths were predicted to peak at about 2,800 in mid-February
Confirmed Omicron cases have increased by 19 percent day-over-day, up to 1,781 as of Wednesday morning as COVID spreads before the holidays

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10337845/Enormous-spread-Omicron-cause-140-MILLION-new-infections-January-1-March-1.html

'Enormous spread of omicron' may bring 140M new COVID infections to US in the next two months, model predicts

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/12/22/covid-omicron-variant-ihme-models-predict-140-m-new-infections-winter/8967421002/

Omicron will cause more infections but lower hospital rates, analysis shows

https://www.npr.org/2021/12/22/1066649196/omicron-will-cause-more-infections-but-lower-hospital-rates-analysis-shows

[VMA131Marine]

2. A death rate of even 1% ...

would result in 1.4 million new deaths if there are 140 million new infections.

[Tetrachloride]

5. With overwhelmed hospitals, ... could be.

[former9thward]

11. Where is 1% coming from?

No evidence of that.

[Celerity]

20. the lethality rate for any of the variants was never close to 1%, and Omicron will have a far lower

rate than most, if not all.

Also we have the VACCINES now.

There has been constant misinformation of this since the beginning of the pandemic. You had doom porners on here claiming the US would have 3, 5, 7, even 10 million deaths by spring 2021.

The number of cases are only based off reported, tested ones. In the US alone there have been tens upon tens of millions of cases never listed due to their asymptomatic nature, or ones that were simply never tested.

would result in 1.4 million new deaths if there are 140 million new infections.

is NEVER going to happen from Omicron

[VMA131Marine]

24. 834,000 deaths out of 52,000,000 confirmed cases

That’s an average death rate of 1.6%. Maybe that’s skewed higher by the cases occurring before there were vaccines and treatment protocols, but you can’t say 1% is an unreasonable fraction.

[Celerity]

27. That total case number is massively undercounted. Tens of millions

(perhaps over 100 million) of non reported cases, either asymptomatic or simply never tested.

The case lethality rate is nowhere near what you (and others, for a year and half plus now) claim. That claim is junk science.

[VMA131Marine]

29. You mean you think it's massively undercounted.

Even if the number of cases is double that reported, the death rate would still be 0.8% and now you’ve also assumed that a total of 1/3rd of the country has had COVID.

[Celerity]

32. Your assumptions are not based in science, and also, another point, you are not taking into acount

multiple infections for some people.

You also are failing to take into account the effectiveness of vaccines in terms of death prevention, which is a curious stance for a person falsely and ridiculously accusing ME of pushing so-called RW talking points.

Plus, now you are doubling down and claiming a 1.6% case lethality rate, even higher than you initial 1% example.

Why are you so bought in to trying to induce doom and panic?




Covid cases in US may have been undercounted by 60%, study shows

Number of reported cases ‘represents only a fraction of the estimated total number of infections’

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/26/us-covid-cases-undercounted-study

The number of Covid-19 cases across the US may have been undercounted by as much as 60%, researchers at the University of Washington have found.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, builds on research which has found the number of reported cases “represents only a fraction of the estimated total number of infections”. It has important implications for how many Americans need to be vaccinated to stop outbreaks.

The paper comes as a swath of states across the south and midwest, especially Arkansas, Missouri and Louisiana, experience outbreaks driven by Delta variant infections among unvaccinated people. “There are all sorts of different data sources we can draw on to understand the Covid-19 pandemic,” said Adrian Raftery, a professor of sociology and statistics at the University of Washington and senior study author.

But, he said, “each source of data has its own flaws that would give a biased picture of what’s really going on. What we wanted to do is to develop a framework that corrects the flaws in multiple data sources and draws on their strengths to give us an idea of Covid-19’s prevalence in a region, a state or the country as a whole.”

snip

[Crunchy Frog]

33. The CDC thinks it's massively undercounted too.

I think they were estimating around 140,000,000 as of last May.

You can check out their website if you don't believe me.

[VMA131Marine]

37. So, 140,000,000 actual cases means

Another 800,000 deaths if we have another 140,000,000 cases. And even considering repeat infections, just because someone survived it once doesn’t mean COVID won’t kill them the second or third time. Then there’s all the long COVID cases.

[Celerity]

28. Also, you are making two futher massive errors.

1. Omicron is, given the totality of the evidence so far, far milder in terms of intensity of disease and lethality.

2. You are ignoring the fact over 60% of US is now double jabbed, over 70% single jabbed, and soon 40% will have received a third booster jab. Even being single jabbed, let alone 2 or 3 times (especially 3) greatly cuts down the chances of death, as well as serious hospitalisations.

Your claim of 1.4 million deaths to come from Omicron is simply wrong, from a number of points.

[VMA131Marine]

30. I think you're on the wrong forum

Take your talking points to Free Republic.

Plus, there is not enough data yet to say for sure that omicron is less dangerous to unvaccinated people than delta. We do know that vaccination cuts the rate of serious illness, but there are still a lot of unvaccinated people.

[Celerity]

31. Are you serious? How dare you accuse me of being a RWer when I am simply using

science to counter your OTT doom posting, doom posting based off flawed logic, science, and numbers.

You owe me a an immediate apology.

[VMA131Marine]

35. I am serious

and don’t call me Shirley.

[Celerity]

36. you are WAY out of bounds, and breaking TOS, I am NOT some fucking closet RWer, its bullshit

[VMA131Marine]

38. You're the one downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic

with absolutely pie in the sky made up numbers.

[Celerity]

39. your 1.4 million new deaths number is ridiculous and not science based, it is pure fear mongering

pie in the sky made up numbers.

that is you, not me

and you calling me a RW Free Republic type is fucking BULLSHIT, all because I disagree you (and gave multiple reason why, all science-based)

your numbers are alarmist, and way OTT, and ignore a tonne of facts that make them profoundly overstated

your are breaking TOS by smearing me personally

[VMA131Marine]

40. The current death rate on confirmed cases ...

(because we can’t count unconfirmed cases) is 1.6%. Even if the vaccines and better treatment protocols cut that in half to 0.8%, then another 140 million CONFIRMED cases (and to belabour the point, those are the only cases we can count) would result in another million plus deaths. The death rate for the flu is 0.015% and I don’t think anyone in the scientific community has suggested that the rate for COVID will go near that low.

[Celerity]

41. you cannot find a single credible scientist who says that the case fatality rate in the US for

COVID is 1.6%, especially with Omicron, AND when the actual amount of cases (which massive studies for over a year plus have claimed are severely undercounted) are factored in. To claim that we have an accurate TRUE case count on a historical basis is anti-science nonsense.

And your numbers push a RW meme by completely ignoring vaccine effectiveness in preventing deaths, as the clear majority of deaths happened before there was as widespread full (at the time, so double jabbed) vaccination rates as there are now (61.7% atm, and over 70% partially vaxxed. and that is for the entire population, and a lot of the unvaxxed are sub 30 years of age, sub 20 years of age, who have a staggeringly LOWER death rate than the older cohorts, especially 65yo and up, who are vaxxed at much higher rates)

There is no chance that 1.4 million new deaths will come in the US from Omicron. That is anti-science, alarmist fear-mongering, and fundamentally relies on YOU (not me) using RW framings that try and dismiss the death prevention effects of vaccines.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=USA

[PTWB]

43. I appreciate your diligence and your attempt to inject reality into the hysteria.

I'm sorry that poster accused you of being a RW troll. That was uncalled for.

[beaglelover]

44. Agreed!

[Celerity]

46. Its just bizarre to claim a huge new, never before seen 1.4 million strong death wave coming, caused

by Omicron, when there is no scientific basis for that claim, and it also being simplistically extrapolated off an extremely problematic and overstated case fatality rate.

There is not a single advanced nation were you are seeing any sort of huge death spikes despite there being huge spikes in cases from Omicron.

Many EU nations have either no, or a just a handful of Omicron deaths, despite a huge spreading of Omicron for weeks. As of 2 days the UK only had 14 Omicron deaths TO DATE, despite it being in the country for over a month, and now spreading at rates of well over 100,000 cases a day. The vast majority of deaths are from non Omicron strains. We have yet to have a single Omicron death here in Sweden, despite Omicron first being tested around the middle of November.

I do not understand why a person would be so eager to have a monstrous, 1.4 million strong death wave come, so eager that they delve in to RW denigration of vaccines, and also, with apparently no irony, accuse ME of being RW simply for challenging that anti-science nonsense.









Here in Sweden, to date we have only had 89 total deaths since the beginning in March 2020, for our youngest half (so 5.05 million out of 10.1 million) of the population. This would be like the US having around 2,937 deaths out of the youngest 161.5 million

9 total, since March 2020, school age deaths (5 to 19 yo) despite our K-12 schools never really shutting down, except for some high schools in 2020. This is like the US having a total of 297 schoolchildren die since March 2020.


Sweden numbers from Folkhälsomyndigheten (our CDC)


https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

total deaths to date and listed by age group





cases per day (we are now over 5,000 per day)




deaths per day (the highest on this chart is 12, From September 16th, all but 6 days have been under 10)

[VMA131Marine]

45. Well, as time goes on we will see who is right ...

and who is dead, literally.

I hope I’m wrong and the mortality rate is much lower that it’s been, but the most reliable number remains 800,000 deaths in 50 million confirmed cases. Furthermore, for the last 3 months we’ve been averaging around 100,000 confirmed cases per day and about 1,000 deaths; that’s a mortality rate of 1% on confirmed cases. Are you that delusional that you think another 140,000,000 cases won’t result in absolute carnage.

[Celerity]

48. You absolutely will be wrong, by a massive amount. I almost never make definitive statements, but

do so here. You are grossly overstating the deaths to come from Omicron, (for a multiplicity of reasons I already covered), and you were entirely out of bounds slagging me off as some sort of RW troll simply for disagreeing with you, especially as YOU are one leaning into RW framings of vaccines (as ineffectual against death) in order to push your inflated numbers.

Slating me as a RW Free Republic-style troll was and is utter bollocks, and is against TOS, as it was a pure personal attack.

[VMA131Marine]

49. Lighten up, Francis!

[The Magistrate]

50. You Scrappin' With The Wrong Gal, Fella....

[VMA131Marine]

51. Why? Because I realise there isn't nearly enough data

Last edited Sat Dec 25, 2021, 03:03 PM - Edit history (1)

to make the definitive claims she’s making.

The statement that omicron causes less severe illness that delta is, at best, based on anecdotal evidence. There is certainly no statistically significant science behind it.

[The Magistrate]

52. Among Other Things, Dear

Because you commenced by accusing her of being a trolling right-winger, which started you out in deep hole. Also, she knows a lot more than you do....

[VMA131Marine]

53. As to the last point, bullshit

Last edited Sun Dec 26, 2021, 04:22 AM - Edit history (1)

This opinion piece says exactly what I’ve been saying in this thread: it’s far too early and there is not nearly enough data to conclude that omicron is less deadly than delta. Therefore, a statement that omicron will not cause large numbers of COVID19 deaths is unsupported by the evidence. She was the one that started this by dismissing my numbers out of hand with pure bullshit reasoning.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/21/omicron-mild-cases-numbers/

[madville]

3. Since I got my booster in November I kind of want to get Omicron

I’d rather get it now than say in a couple of months when my booster has worn off. Plus I was just reading that if you get infected after the booster you can likely develop “super immunity”, I’ve always wanted super powers ……

[LisaL]

6. Looks like your chances of getting it are pretty good.

In fact, it looks like our chances of getting it are pretty good, whether we want it or not.

[madville]

7. I work and interact with people everyday

Vaxxed, unvaxxed, masked, no masks, etc. Starting to feel like it’s a foregone conclusion to get this wave.

[Calculating]

14. Same

Got my booster two weeks ago, might as well get omicron sooner rather than later since it seems inevitable at this point.

[Tetrachloride]

4. Ask your pharmacist about other vaccines

Ask your pharmacist while you still have time:

flu
tetanus
shingles
and a booster

Stock up on non-perishables. Clean out your refrigerator. Clean and restock.

Vinegar salad dressing keeps longer.

Do not hurt yourself shoveling snow.

[madville]

12. I got my booster, tetanus and flu in November

Going to the grocery store tomorrow to get at least a another months worth of basic supplies and more toilet paper. Should be good for 3 months without shopping after that as long as the freezer/electricity holds up.

[Thtwudbeme]

47. We have already started doing that

I am not sure why others are not.

Fine- you won't die if you are vaccinated. But, the truck drivers are going to be out sick. So are grocery store stockers.

Schools WILL shut down- who the hell is going to teach the kiddos while their teachers are out on sick leave? Subs? Ha! We can't even get those NOW.

Jan/ Feb/ March are going to be a bitch in the US-

[Ms. Toad]

8. This is misleading because of people's math illiteracy

Omicron will cause more infections but lower hospital rates, analysis shows

Marginally lower hospitalization rates multiplied by dramatically higher number of infected people will result in a much larger number of people in the hospital. We are bursting at the seams now.

Globally, the analysis projected that the world will see 3 billion or more infections over the next three months, which is as many as the entire two years of the pandemic, said Dr. Chris Murray, director of the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

It is too early to have reliable numbers on hospitalization, but one estimate I've seen is 1/3 as many.

So - assuming that is correct (a ginormous assumption) - we would have the equivalent of 7.3 months' worth of hospitalizations a month. (The hospitalizations were not evenly spread over the 3 years, so it won't be quite as bad as that sounds - but we don't have spare capacity around here to absorb even a fraction of a month's extra hospitalizations.

[LastDemocratInSC]

17. Innumeracy is math illiteracy.

I'm just nit picking.

[Ms. Toad]

18. Ok . . . n/t

[BannonsLiver]

42. Try not to get too down.

Plenty of pandemic left, I’m sure.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. IHME Estimates Have Been Notably Unreliable

They eventually get it right because they keep adjusting their models to meet reality.
Early in the pandemic they were routinely overestimating, prior to peaks.
I'll take this warning with a grain of salt in the short term.
We'll see if their modeling methods have become more reliable.
In the meantime, I'll just continue with mitigation measures recommended by the experts.

[LisaL]

10. Yea, we don't know the exact number of infected.

But clearly it's going to be a lot of infections. My state beat a record for today.

[ProfessorGAC]

13. No Doubt It Will Be Dramatic

But, the "official" numbers show 52.5 million cases to date.
>30 million were before vaccines were made widely available.
It's hard to rationalize that 2.75 times the cases will be developing with over 200 million fully vaxxed & 60 million further boosted.
Their numbers don't make sense to me, even knowing omicron is more contagious.

[uponit7771]

26. +1, This is what pisses me off about the current group think on omnicron seeing there are 2 other

... nations saying their hospitalizations using RELATIVE NUMBERS aren't like they were with Delta.

There's no data showing our numbers wont be similar

[marybourg]

15. Daily Mail

[Delphinus]

16. Yeah,

I wondered about them as a source too.

[Ms. Toad]

19. Roughly equivalent to the National Enquirer,

according to friends in the UK.

[Celerity]

34. we call it the Daily Heil, its a reactionary RW rag, was and is massively pro Brexit and pro Tory

[NowISeetheLight]

25. Not as severe as Delta?

From what I’ve been reading the instance of hospitalization with severe illness is less with Omicron. Of course you still have the Covidiots who won’t get vaccinated to deal with, but for most of us vaccinated we should be in good shape.

It is more transmissible though so social distancing and masks are still going to be with us.

[Renew Deal]

54. I know a bunch of people that caught it in the last two weeks.

The last time I knew a bunch of people that were sick was March-April 2020. This thing is really spreading.