Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

sarchasm

(1,012 posts)
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 11:28 AM Dec 2021

A 1997 Wired Article Predicting '10 Things That Could Go Wrong In The 21st Century'

I'd like to remain positive but ....
-----------



-----------

– Tensions between China and the US escalate into a new Cold War — bordering on a hot one.

– New technologies turn out to be a bust. They simply don't bring the expected productivity increases or the big economic boosts,

– Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasi-communist nationalism that threatens Europe.

– Europe's integration process grinds to a halt. Eastern and Western Europe can't finesse a reunification, and even the European Unification process breaks down.

– Major ecological crisis causes a global climate change that, among other things, disrupts the food supply - causing big price increases everywhere and sporadic famines.

– Major rise in crime and terrorism forces the world to pull back in fear. People who constantly feel they could be blown up or ripped off are not in the mood to reach out and open up.

– The cumulative escalation in pollution causes a dramatic increase in cancer, which overwhelms the ill-prepared health system.

– Energy prices go through the roof. Convulsions in the Middle East disrupt the oil supply, and alternative energy sources fail to materialize.

– An uncontrollable plague - a modern-day influenza epidemic or its equivalent takes off like wildfire, killing upward of 200 million people.

– A social and cultural backlash stops progress dead in its tracks, human beings need to choose to move forward. They just may not...
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
A 1997 Wired Article Predicting '10 Things That Could Go Wrong In The 21st Century' (Original Post) sarchasm Dec 2021 OP
Okay that's weird underpants Dec 2021 #1
especially considering his/her handle ... lol! sarchasm Dec 2021 #3
Get this author an astrologers column! ret5hd Dec 2021 #2
Most futurist predictions are crap. This was pretty close mostly. JanMichael Dec 2021 #4
Except for the "alternative energy sources don't materialize" part. calimary Dec 2021 #10
There are plenty of alternative energy sources. Voltaire2 Dec 2021 #14
alternative energy sources materialized, the battery tech to make effective use of them didn't Amishman Dec 2021 #30
"The history book on the shelf, is always repeating itself" - ABBA bucolic_frolic Dec 2021 #5
Bookmarked. Boomerproud Dec 2021 #6
the last thing on that list is the most damning.......... Takket Dec 2021 #7
"Cement shoes"!!!!!!!! Takket for the WIN! calimary Dec 2021 #12
"Cement shoes" of the human species ... now that's a KPN Dec 2021 #13
It is odd, that where they are incredibly prescient on many things, they are very wrong betting karynnj Dec 2021 #8
There is still 79 years left in the 21st century nt Javaman Dec 2021 #9
This small part is just the possible contrarian outlook. Overall Wired Celerity Dec 2021 #27
That wasn't a prediction. It was a plan. hunter Dec 2021 #11
Crime has been trending down for 2 decades. Voltaire2 Dec 2021 #15
Really; I sitting here wondering why eveeryone thinks its SO spot on. oldsoftie Dec 2021 #17
That's because of the decline in smoking rates as much as anything (n/t) Spider Jerusalem Dec 2021 #20
Fossil fuel prices are still quite low here TexasBushwhacker Dec 2021 #18
Many people dont think about the consequences of very low oil prices oldsoftie Dec 2021 #22
We will have to go nuclear to seriously make a dent TexasBushwhacker Dec 2021 #35
And thats a reality that most here just dont want to accept. But the right one. oldsoftie Dec 2021 #36
It's way up in NYC Polybius Dec 2021 #25
But you have to admit, domestic terrorism is way, way up from 1997. n/t intheflow Dec 2021 #32
K&R MustLoveBeagles Dec 2021 #16
In the Year 2525 old as dirt Dec 2021 #19
I remember Delphinus Dec 2021 #21
I remember that song well! burrowowl Dec 2021 #26
Quasimodo predicted all this Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2021 #23
. Carlitos Brigante Dec 2021 #28
100% TRUE orangecrush Dec 2021 #24
"A short-lived satirical pulp." Bernardo de La Paz Dec 2021 #29
The last 2 are eerily prescient, got a chill with the last sentence. lark Dec 2021 #31
Plenty of technologies have produced unexpected results IronLionZion Dec 2021 #33
A review from 2014 of this - and more ... TomWilm Dec 2021 #34

JanMichael

(24,890 posts)
4. Most futurist predictions are crap. This was pretty close mostly.
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 11:39 AM
Dec 2021

A lot closer to being on the money than the Jetsons.

calimary

(81,299 posts)
10. Except for the "alternative energy sources don't materialize" part.
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 01:00 PM
Dec 2021

Seems to me we do have some, what with the growing solar and battery and other technologies happening.

Voltaire2

(13,045 posts)
14. There are plenty of alternative energy sources.
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 01:38 PM
Dec 2021

We just are trapped in corrupt governments that cannot end fossil subsidies and/or force the fossil fuel industry to pay for its damage to the planet through taxes on carbon emissions.

Amishman

(5,557 posts)
30. alternative energy sources materialized, the battery tech to make effective use of them didn't
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 09:28 AM
Dec 2021

And honestly, the alternative energy sources is mostly cheap and fairly efficient solar cells. I still don't believe wind is viable in most locations due to low average output, high initial cost, and maintenance.

Modern nuclear designs need to be implemented immediately. We have better tech there, its just not being built.

Lithium ion batteries are the current wall, need something both more efficient and with more easily obtainable inputs.

bucolic_frolic

(43,173 posts)
5. "The history book on the shelf, is always repeating itself" - ABBA
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 11:56 AM
Dec 2021

It's just the same cycles, over and over, decades, centuries, millennia apart. Saracen invasions, plagues, fascist power, depressions, revolutions, wars. As if Nostradamus discovered something from the historical record.

Takket

(21,573 posts)
7. the last thing on that list is the most damning..........
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 12:11 PM
Dec 2021

We as a global community, not just the USA w/ drumpf, are allowing right win fascists to essentially be the cement shoes of our species, dragging everyone else to the bottom with it. drumpf, putin, brexit......... those are the major players but the problem is everywhere. the next to last thing on that list is a plague. covid hasn't been 200 million dead bad but the "social and cultural backlash" problem has made it so much worse than it had to be. we as a global community should thrilled that years of research and progress gave us the chance to make a vaccine for this thing in only a year. And here we are a year after that, and because of the "social and cultural backlash", we are still living with the virus every day because something like 1/3 of the globe refuses to take it.

Can you imagine that?

That is what i mean by cement shoes........ those of us, the vast majority that want to listen to experts and do the right thing are continually forced to live through the worst of everything because, to use the term from the USA, the "cement shoes" people want to own the libs.

For "social and cultural" reasons the cement shoes don't want a ban of assault weapons, even though the majority of us do.

The minority want to ban abortion, burn books, rig elections........ and oh yeah, SAVE the planet from climate change!

and it isn't happening............. because we just can't "move forward"

but it isn't all bad news. We still have the filibuster

calimary

(81,299 posts)
12. "Cement shoes"!!!!!!!! Takket for the WIN!
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 01:04 PM
Dec 2021

Maybe that’s how WE rename THEM. What a GREAT meme strategy! Visual as all-get-out! A mental picture that says all and is an easy point to make! And you can SEE it in your mind!

Picture it! And USE it! Spread it!!!

KPN

(15,646 posts)
13. "Cement shoes" of the human species ... now that's a
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 01:37 PM
Dec 2021

powerful metaphor if there ever was one for today’s far right. Hell, for the Republican Party today … the Cement Shoes Party aka GOP.

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
8. It is odd, that where they are incredibly prescient on many things, they are very wrong betting
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 12:21 PM
Dec 2021

Against technology. Both on technology and productivity and energy. It should be noted that we'll before 1997, many of these things were projections by experts, including climate change and a global pandemic. Others such as a cultural backlash after change and US and China conflict were predictable.

Celerity

(43,399 posts)
27. This small part is just the possible contrarian outlook. Overall Wired
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 02:57 AM
Dec 2021

was not at all betting against tech.

hunter

(38,316 posts)
11. That wasn't a prediction. It was a plan.
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 01:01 PM
Dec 2021

Those who control the economy think they can profit from these horrors.

They don't realize how brittle our world economy is and probably wouldn't survive any sort of collapse.


Voltaire2

(13,045 posts)
15. Crime has been trending down for 2 decades.
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 01:46 PM
Dec 2021

There is no cancer epidemic overwhelming our healthcare systems.

Productivity continues to increase, the bosses have taken all the gains.

The EU’s problem is not in the east, it is over in the northwest.

Food supply crisis hasn’t happened yet, but could happen soon.

Fossil fuel prices are unfortunately low.

oldsoftie

(12,548 posts)
17. Really; I sitting here wondering why eveeryone thinks its SO spot on.
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 02:14 PM
Dec 2021

Much of it is generalization
Our cancer death rate has dropped every year for several.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,192 posts)
18. Fossil fuel prices are still quite low here
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 02:31 PM
Dec 2021

But in other parts of the world, they pay double or triple what we pay at the pump.

I agree that the price of fossil fuels is too low, but I know that people are running around with their hair on fire that gas has gone up $1 a gallon over what it was during the beginning of the pandemic when PEOPLE WEREN'T DRIVING.

The thing is, unless you live in a state that depends on fossil fuel income, you can't understand how devastating artificially low fossil fuel prices can be. There's the fact that it encourages people to continue to buy gas guzzling behemoths just to commute to work. But there's also the fact that when gas prices drop too low for too long, oil companies can't make a profit and start shutting down production, laying off tens of thousands of workers, from high paid engineers to rig workers. The trickle down effect of those layoffs, from foreclosed homes, to mom and pop diners in oil towns going under is devastating.

oldsoftie

(12,548 posts)
22. Many people dont think about the consequences of very low oil prices
Sun Dec 26, 2021, 08:38 PM
Dec 2021

And many people also think the US can lower oil usage on the level of many much smaller countries. As technology stands now, no, we cant.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,192 posts)
35. We will have to go nuclear to seriously make a dent
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 05:14 PM
Dec 2021

I like solar and wind as much as the next tree hugger, but they have nuclear reactors in Europe producing 1/4 of their electricity. We have 20% nuclear produced electricity, but if we're going to reduce nasty ass coal (currently at 19%) something is going to have to fill that gap. Right now natural gas is at 40%. It's not clean, but it's a lot cleaner than coal.

oldsoftie

(12,548 posts)
36. And thats a reality that most here just dont want to accept. But the right one.
Tue Dec 28, 2021, 08:22 AM
Dec 2021

Nuke plants today are nothing like the old days. And thats the ONLY way to reliably keep the power on to 320 million people

Polybius

(15,423 posts)
25. It's way up in NYC
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 12:21 AM
Dec 2021

Probably elsewhere too. It was going down for two decades, but the last two years have been rough.

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,002 posts)
29. "A short-lived satirical pulp."
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 07:24 AM
Dec 2021

"If anything remains more or less unchanged, it will be the role of
women." David Riesman, conservative American social scientist, 1967.

"It will be gone by June." Variety, passing judgement on rock 'n roll
in 1955.

"Democracy will be dead by 1950." John Langdon-Davies, A Short
History of The Future, 1936.

"A short-lived satirical pulp." TIME, writing off Mad magazine in
1956.

"I am tired of all this sort of thing called science here... We have
spent millions in that sort of thing for the last few years, and it is
time it should be stopped." Simon Cameron, U.S. Senator, on the
Smithsonian Institute, 1861.

lark

(23,102 posts)
31. The last 2 are eerily prescient, got a chill with the last sentence.
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 10:01 AM
Dec 2021

It so encapsulates what is happening right now in this country and we may not survive it. For the first time I am ok with not having grandchildren because I fear for the world they would live in. I'm very concerned about the future and so worried that the right wing asses will kill us and the earth for the profits of the rich and the hatred of the sheep who believe the rw lies they are told

IronLionZion

(45,447 posts)
33. Plenty of technologies have produced unexpected results
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 10:28 AM
Dec 2021

as in they worked out great but disrupted industries and displaced workers through automation.

I'm worried about the 200 million dead prediction. And we've already seen backlash against progress. MAGA and BREXIT are all about taking society backwards.

TomWilm

(1,832 posts)
34. A review from 2014 of this - and more ...
Mon Dec 27, 2021, 04:33 PM
Dec 2021
Se the full article in Wired 1997

... The authors didn’t anticipate many things, including: large terrorist attacks that provoked unending military responses, increasing and institutionalized economic inequality, how difficult some medical questions really are (they forecast that a gene therapy for cancer would be found around 2012), the rise of nationalism and fundamentalism, any negative effects of globalization, and pushback to (and evil corporate use of) genetic modification of livestock and crops.

By now, they thought we would be voting online from home in presidential elections — no hackers or Bush v. Gore in their world. They thought we would have a “superpower nonaggression treaty” between the US, China, Europe and Russia, and instead we have more conflict with Russia than since the Cold War ended. They thought world GDP growth would top 6%; it’s actually projected to be 3.7% this year.

They thought the Middle East would be out of oil and we’d have third stage hybrids that ran on pure hydrogen; instead, the US is now the world’s top oil producer and electric cars are still rare. They thought that organ donations from animals would be common, birth defects would be completely eliminated, and that education would be radically reformed from kindergarten through university. Oh, and human life expectancy should reach 120 next year.

While they were a little closer on some of their computer industry predictions, they really overestimated humankind. To be fair, on page 129 they have a list of “Ten Scenario Spoilers” that includes a couple that came close: Russia devolves into a kleptocracy run by a mafia or retreats into quasicommunist nationalism that threatens Europe. And a social and cultural backlash stops progress dead in its tracks. ...


https://avataric.wordpress.com/2014/10/18/boom-era-wired-magazines-part-3/
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»A 1997 Wired Article Pred...