Nate Silver thinks Omicron may have peaked in NYC

[Tomconroy]

He has an interesting metric for thinking it's possible:

Link to tweet

?s=20

Google searches for 'covid symptoms' are dropping.

[C_U_L8R]

1. If we've learned one thing in the last two years

It ain't over until it's over.

[Tetrachloride]

2. Google fatigue , holiday, snow, travel interruptions are possible

[dweller]

3. ooh , I wonder 🤔

If Dr. Fauci will start predicting election results based on unvaxxed maga deaths?



✌🏻

[Pinback]

7. LOL, yup.

Trashing thread.

[Nevilledog]

4. Nevilledog thinks Nate Silver should stay in his lane.

[dweller]

6. ☝🏼

✌🏻

[USALiberal]

9. I was waiting for someone to whine about him. Nt

[Nevilledog]

10. Glad you didn't have to wait long.

[budkin]

5. Has Nate Silver been right about anything since 2012?

For real.

[liberal_mama]

8. I hope this is true, but the test sites in my area have been packed

My husband tested positive today and symptoms have been terrible, even though he's vaccinated. When he called his employer to tell them he had Covid, his boss said that almost all the employees had called in sick with Covid today and they were going to have to close down. He works for a big company too.

[Tomconroy]

12. Positivity rate has been flat the last few days and cases actually

Are hardly increasing. Hard to know for sure but it does seem to be following London by maybe ten days. Let's hope.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Mad_Machine76]

11. Lemme stop you at "Nate Silver thinks"

He's a statistician and sometimes he's been right about some things. But he's not a doctor and certainly not an epidemiologist nor an infectious disease expert and I will wait to hear what Dr Fauci says first.

[elias7]

13. Not an epidemiologist, just an outspoken often wrong statistician with a big megaphone

[PurgedVoter]

14. Nate was amazing till he got money

It gets kind of hard to point fingers when your fingers might just point at who dumps cash on your doorstep.

[BGBD]

15. A lot of people in this thread just don't like Nate Silver

...but I haven't seen a single person make a data-driven argument that he's wrong.

[Bucky]

16. Nate Silver's math skills don't impress me. Follow this link to see for yourself

Follow this link. It's World-o-Meter's New York Covid page.

Scroll down to the daily new infections charts. That's what a peak looks like.

At the end of October they were having ~4000 new infections per day.

At the end of November they were having ~7000 new infections per day.

At the end of December they were having ~53,000 new infections per day. These are all based on the running 7-day average of new infections. Do you see a pattern?

On Jan 1 there were an average of 59,000 new infections for the past 7 days
On Jan 2 there were an average of 62,000 new infections for the past 7 days
On Jan 3 there were an average of 65,700 new infections for the past 7 days

[Dorian Gray]

17. I think peoples worry peaked in nyc

My very unscientific speculation is that we would park next weekend. A week after New Years. Then slowly start declining.

50.000 positive cases a day the last few days. And I know a bunch of people who had tested positive on at home tests and not on officia tests. So the numbers are much higher.

School going back will be fraught but my daughter starts back up today. I’m comfortable sending her and I’m resigned ri getting this in our household. (She is vaxxed and we are boosted).

Our only “hope” is thus half her friends and their families already had it over break.

[634-5789]

18. Since the 2016 Election fiasco, Nate silver can kiss my old wrinkled ass. He's WORTHLESS.