Smerconish poll of the day: Will US map be the same in 50 years? Thoughts?

[dwayneb]

This morning Smerconish question of the day was: "Will the map of the USA be the same in 50 years as it is today?"

Around 53% said no. About 47% said yes.

I'm with the "nos" on this. May be an uncomfortable opinion, but I believe that the neo-Fascist Right is on the way to assuming power in the US. I guess it's a "victory" for them if we consider usurping the Constitution and establishing an autocracy of one form or another as "winning".

The have the momentum, they have the roadmap for a successful coup, and they have the most powerful propaganda machine in history - the Internet. Plus I don't see the Left or the Democrats waking up in time to ensure the guardrails remain in place, they should have started on that in earnest a decade ago. And I don't see the ~40% of Americans that are fully apathetic with their noses buried in their electronic toys waking up either. By the time they do awaken they will be under the boot.

To me the real question is what happens AFTER the coup, we've already crossed the Rubicon about IF a rightwing coup will occur. If it's not 2024 it will be 2028 or 2032, but there is little doubt that we are steadily moving toward one-party rule here in the USA.

I used to think that secession was improbable, that we'd never see the breakup of the US as we now know it, but I no longer think that is true. Exactly how that will happen is the big question. Hard to imagine it can take place without civil war at some level; but there are quite a few that are advocating for having those discussions now, rather than descending into open warfare and needless bloodshed. Monied interests here in the USA would much rather have a diplomatic division than a civil war, that's for sure.

Thoughts?

[unblock]

1. For starters, most of what is now Florida will be under water...

I know that's not the direction you were thinking for this thread. But things like losing major cities like Miami and the massive relocation and real estate effects and so on will have massive effects on our politics, quite aside from how the current Republican psychosis plays out.

[dwayneb]

8. Not in the timeframe we are talking about here

Agree, that over the next few decades, climate change will have an enormous effect on geopolitics.

But that will happen gradually. The neo-fascist Right is ready to put their boot on our neck TODAY. And when they do, Florida going underwater will be the least of our worries.

It's funny how history goes in phases, from chaos to peace and prosperity. America had her time in the sun. Now people need to be prepared for the changes that will be coming.

If I was younger I'd try to emigrate to Canada where one might be able to raise one generation of kids in a decent free country. But I'm an old codger now, way too late to make that move.

[unblock]

9. I'm not sure Canada doesn't get annexed if the right wing gets full control of the u.s.

[dwayneb]

12. Agreed...

That's why I was saying one generation. US, Canada, Europe are all drifting toward right wing authoritarianism.

If you are young, there might be a few more decades of freedom ahead for you in Canada.

But honestly, who knows? A coup in the USA would be totally unprecedented no one has any idea where it will go. One stabilizing force will be the large corporations. They more than anyone else will resist the chaos and economic disaster that will happen if our Constitution is effectively rendered meaningless.

[unblock]

16. Large corporation are almost always supportive of authoritarian regimes

When chaos starts as people resist an authoritarian regime, large corporations are the first to demand "law and order" to force people to work obediently and not disrupt their moneymaking.

They don't want anarchy, but they are perfectly happy with brutal authoritarian regimes.

[ShazamIam]

2. I hope we will be that long discussed, N.A.U. but done with consent not by force.

[dwayneb]

6. NAU?

Not sure what N A U stand for or means.

The prevailing thinking is that secession can't happen in the USA because our Constitution makes it very difficult to accomplish that.

This makes the naive assumption that our Constitution at least in its current form has any power at any level. As we have already seen all it takes is for enough people to simple ignore it, to make it effectively obsolete.

Personally I don't this will end without a catastrophic civil war of one for or another. Plenty of folks on the far Right that would like nothing better than to use their guns on their neighbors.

[ShazamIam]

32. N.A.U. North American Union, it was being talked up big at the turn of the century. There was even a

commissioned book, presenting a history of the ties that have long existed between Canada, The U.S.A., and Mexico. I don't remember the name or the writer and I donated it after I read it. And there was not much public discussion, but there was some real planning it may have been part of the infamous PNAC plans.

Not much about it in mainstream media even when it was a hot topic on the political threads of the internet. I was on gather.com 2006/07 there was discussion there about it.


https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=North_American_Union/Articles_%26_Commentary_2005

The conservative organizations were strongly opposed so it was a hot topic on sites about conspiracies.

Most of the commentary sourced by Source Watch is opposition from such groups.

https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=North_American_Union/Articles_%26_Commentary_2005

[rickford66]

3. Red states rely heavily on Blue states.

Good luck.

[Binkie The Clown]

4. The red states will split off and become 3rd world countries. The blue states ...

... will live long and prosper.

[bronxiteforever]

5. The new map has been drawn.

Science already knows. Climate change.
“It is important, it is true, it is happening, and it is an impending disaster.”
David Attenborough


Miami 2050

Costal land lost by 2050.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2019/10/30/shocking-new-maps-show-how-sea-level-rise-will-destroy-coastal-cities-by-2050/?sh=24d5621e456c

Don’t look up!

[Willis88]

18. Climate change is having devastating effects and will displace millions

I’m not sure if Florida will be that underwater in 28 years. Looks like NYC and any other costal city will be gone too!

[bronxiteforever]

25. We all drown together. If the 'doomsday' Thwaites Glacier goes

the above map will look optimistic. The glacier is already shedding around 50 billion tons of ice into the water a year and the British Antarctic Survey says it is responsible for 4% of global sea rise. We will know soon.

A team of scientists are setting sail to the "hardest" place to get to in the world to investigate how much and how quickly sea levels will rise as global warming eats away at Antarctica's vast ice sheet.

Thirty-two experts will spend more than two months on board an American research ship to explore the crucial area where the enormous, melting Thwaites Glacier meets the sea.
https://news.sky.com/story/climate-change-scientists-embark-on-two-month-mission-to-explore-doomsday-thwaites-glacier-12510038

Check out 9 cities under water by 2030-US cities include Savannah and New Orleans.
https://www.timeout.com/things-to-do/cities-that-could-be-underwater-by-2030

Don’t look up!

[Willis88]

39. Thanks for the links! Interesting info and I most definitely will be looking up!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/11743852

[FakeNoose]

21. The map in Forbes doesn't go far enough

It shows low-lying coastal areas will all be underwater by 2050. This is very possible and not difficult to believe.

But they missed a big one: the inland areas around the Great Lakes will also be affected. The Chicagoland area, lower parts of Michigan, and the Saint Lawrence Seaway feeding into the Lake Ontario-Erie-Huron basin. The size of those Great Lakes will greatly increase as the banks of coastal areas recede. Also I'm thinking that the southern part of the Mississippi River basin will fill in with Gulf seawater up to Saint Louis, or maybe farther?

My point is that it's not just the East, South and West Coasts that will suffer. The inlands of the Midwest will get their share too when the shit hits the fan.

[bronxiteforever]

24. Good points.

[Zeitghost]

27. St. Louis

Is ~500' above sea level. Lake Superior is 600'. I'm unaware of any predictions of a 500' rise in sea level. The IPCC predicts 5"-9" in that time period.

[FakeNoose]

29. OK

Who's to say there won't be earthquakes when all this stuff happens? The Mississippi River is right on a fault line. Most of Pennsylvania is higher than that, and I'm not even sure if we'll be safe in western Pennsylvania. Maybe this isn't happening by 2050 but it will happen.

[Zeitghost]

33. Your concerns

Are not based in reality or science. Climate change is real, seal level rising to St. Louis is not.

[GoodRaisin]

28. Looks like my property might be the new beach

according to that map.

[misanthrope]

35. The map you posted above has large errors

I couldn't find it in the Forbes link you supplied. There were other depictions but not this particular illustration.

It appears to be a map that solely colored entire counties that would be affected by sea level rise, not areas that are below a certain elevation. According to long-known figures posted on USGS.gov, it's estimated world sea levels would rise roughly 230 feet above current levels.

Between San Francisco and Los Angeles, this map shows areas tinted blue that are mountainous regions with peaks at more than 3,000 feet in elevation. Conversely, it has California's Central Valley untouched, although a great portion of it lies at less than 200-feet elevation -- much of it less than 100-feet -- and is connected directly to San Francisco Bay.

Same for Oregon. Sea level rise will follow the Columbia River eastward and head down its gorge. It will also use the Willamette River to inundate much of historic Portland and intrude into the Willamette Valley. That said, it won't cover the majority of the valley as this shows, or Oregon's Coastal Range, or the Western Hills or the entirety of eastern Portland, or intruding into the Cascade Range in Clackamas County.

North of Alabama's Mobile Bay, it shows entire counties in blue which only contain portions below 230-feet elevation.

The blue tinge extends farther up the Hudson Valley than it should, over the Hudson Highlands and over part of the Catskills. Meanwhile, it shows little oceanic intrusion along the St. Lawrence River on New York's northern edge.

A curious map altogether. Not saying it isn't something to be concerned about, but this illustration isn't giving accurate information.

[bronxiteforever]

38. Sorry that your computer is broken.

[misanthrope]

41. Nothing wrong with my laptop

The illustration with the red and blue colored map did not appear in the body of post #5 was not in the Forbes article article linked below it. Nor did I see the map in the article's embedded links to:

-the author's previous article about doomsday scenarios,

-the link to the front page of The Land Report,

-the link to a Nature Communications article.

And as I explained, there are incongruities between the red-blue map as a predictor of submerged land and existing topographic maps/physical characteristics of those areas.

[FreepFryer]

7. Smerconish won't be on it, so that's a plus. Tired of talking points from that guy (Nt)

[dwayneb]

10. Forget about Smerconish

He's just a talking head.

The core topic is described in this book:

Stephen Marche "The Next Civil War"

https://www.ama*on.com/Next-Civil-War-Dispatches-American/dp/1982123214

Let me know what you think after you've read this.

[FreepFryer]

11. Nah. "The next civil war" is EXACTLY what the GOP and Putin want (Nt)

[dwayneb]

13. That's the point

Not sure what you are driving at. Of course it's what they want. This is the central tenet of Marche's book.

[FreepFryer]

15. Then I'm not sure why your OP asks whether we agree w Smerconish and not GOP / Putin.

The OP just validates a false frame.

[Tommymac]

36. This.

[hunter]

14. Canada and Mexico will be in deep discussion about their new common border...

... and the refugee problem.

Some parts of the former U.S.A. will still be ungovernable or uninhabitable, not annexed by either nation.

The Arctic Circle will be a very busy place, about half of it controlled by Canada, which will include the newly annexed Alaska, and about half controlled by Russia. Northern Europe will be sitting uncomfortably in the middle -- a zone of shifting alliances and uneasy compromises.

How's that for thoughts? Dystopian fiction is easy.

But seriously, I think the Republican Party knows it's over for them and they are behaving like the violent abusive spouse in a divorce. They'd rather burn it all down than share. That is, of course, the "family values" they demonstrate over and over again.

[Buckeyeblue]

17. I don't agree with the premise

Attempted coups are not done by the majority. It is usually a well organized minority.

I think the far right is a very vocal minority. If the extreme right took the country by force, the economy would be completely wrecked. Like almost instantly. People would pull their money from the stock market in droves. I think there would be a run on banks. The right would be forced to nationalize the financial industry. If they could.

And then there would be blue state protest. The country would be a wasteland very quickly.

I think if we are going down the path to a 1 party rule, it will be the Democratic Party that survives.

I know right now it doesn't seem that way. But what the extreme conservatives are doing is not sustainable.

Our economy is doing well. We need to run on a strong economy and Biden's job record at midterms.

In 50 years, Puerto Rico and DC will be states. That will be a change.

[Hekate]

19. Sea levels are rising

[Aristus]

20. With any luck, this will be my home:

And red-state America can go fuck itself sideways...

[brooklynite]

23. And how are you getting control of Canada?

The problem with map-making is that all you need to draw new lines is a pen.....

[brooklynite]

22. Not an uncomfortable opinion; just a pointless one.....

Too many people jump to "we're doomed!" comments.


FWIW - if the "fascists" take control in your scenario; how are the Blue states going to secede? The country is far more intertwined than it was before the Civil War.

[Progressive Jones]

26. They'll stay out of Chicago, if they know what's good for them.

Most of the MAGA in this area are rural. West of the city and collar counties. They can be taken down real quick if they try to move Eastward.

[Crunchy Frog]

30. I'm a "no" on that. No way the country is still intact in 50 years.

[Hortensis]

31. Yes, probably. Might add a couple states, PR+VI and DC usually

spoken of, but over 50 years who knows? Any of the Pacific territories? Cuba? Possible splits such as CA or MI, if people turned nasty and divisive again in future; it's not happening now, though, and things are pretty awful.

[AngryOldDem]

34. We'll be Balkanized.

Ideologically, we already are.

[Tommymac]

37. No, Puerto Rico & DC will be States. Disagree entirely with the OP's doom & gloom framing re the QOP

Though it seems really grim today, by 2030 the QOP will be totally disgraced and the Democratic Party, in some form, will prevail.

Due to Climate Change, we will have lost parts of the Gulf States, Florida, the barrier islands along the Atlantic seaboard, the Chesapeake Bay will cover large parts of tidewater Virginia and Maryland. NYC will be behind dikes and NJ will just be behind. (Just kidding on that.) The West Coast will lose all it's sand beaches, never to be seen again for thousands of years.

We will have a base on the moon and maybe Mars too.

Politically, the US has too large a Military to allow ANY disintegration in the next 100 years. That US Military is a money machine. It's what the Corporate 1% will use to guarantee that markets continue to be open World Wide, and to keep all the profit making 'little' wars going as long as can be foreseen. China and to a lesser extent Russin and the EU will be our Orwellian opponents. We were never at war with East Asia.

Whether the US is a Democracy, a 'Democracy in Name Only' or something else entirely politically, I do not see it balkanizing at all. The Military needs the huge budget and GDP to remain viable. I do see the US becoming a commercial Global Empire in all but name, controlling World Commerce.

I again state that I really really disagree with the OP's framing of doom and gloom for the Democratic Party. Most likely it will be the Democratic Party Organization that emerges triumphant and will have some form of a rump opposition party to use as it's 'Washington Generals'. Dems are rational, sane, and scientific - an unbeatable combination in the long run.

Whether that Democratic Party will be the same as today is debatable - I can see it possibly becoming the party of choice for the 1% and taking on the role of the conservative/authoritarian party in the USA, but not racist and not in the control of old white men. But regardless it will not be as progressive as it is today, and human rights will suffer.

The 52 States will still hold some form of elections; the old racist White Power structure will have been taken over by POC and minorities, but it will still remain the 1% in philosophy and actions.

Or perhaps the Christian Right will be proven correct and The Rapture will occur just like on that TV show and the chosen will be sitting at the same table with God, Goddess, Jesus and Satan playing Global Risk on the ultimate 3d gaming board, while the rest of us party like it's 2099.

[hunter]

42. I like this post.

At worst we get a DINO, "Democracy in Name Only," in a no-hot-war competition with China.

At best we achieve something much better.

Let's concentrate on that much better part.

My prediction is the Republican Party dies, and our party splits, preserving the "two party" system.

Blessedly our right wing won't be fascists.

[Greybnk48]

43. This

^^^^^^^

[Demsrule86]

40. I don't watch or listen to anything that guy has to say.

No interest.