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brooklynite

(94,680 posts) Sun Jan 16, 2022, 10:16 PM Jan 2022

Boris Johnson betting odds (from Paddy Power)

Boris Johnson will be out of office in:
2022 (2:5)
2023 (11:2)
2024 or later (3:1)

The next Conservative Leader will be:
Rishi Sunak (13:8)
Liz Truss (11:4)
Jeremy Hunt (11:2)
Michael Gove (6:1)

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Boris Johnson betting odds (from Paddy Power) (Original Post) brooklynite Jan 2022 OP

For those unused to how British and Irish betting odds are expressed muriel_volestrangler Jan 2022 #1

muriel_volestrangler

(101,347 posts)

1. For those unused to how British and Irish betting odds are expressed

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Jan 17, 2022, 05:56 AM

Jan 2022

that means, for instance, if there was no altering of the odds to give the bookie a profit, then they think it's a 5 in 7 chance he'll leave office in 2022, 2 in 13 in 2023, 1 in 4 for 2024 or later. Removing the profit, that works out roughly as chances of:
2022: 64%
2023: 14%
2024+: 23%

The next general election doesn't have to be held until 2024.

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