DEMS WON FOUR SPECIAL ELECTIONS LAST WEEK!!

[LENNY0229]

We won special election in Maine for Maine House (suburban district that could have gone red), Massachusetts for Massachusetts House (a FLIP from Red to Blue - No Dem had held this seat since the mid 1800's), Virginia for Virginia House, and Florida for U.S. House. Again, one of these was a FLIP and one (the one in my home state of Maine) could very welll have gone red. There were no guarantees. In ALL cases, the Dems won by BIG margins.

These offer insights into 2022 which due to historical trends is obviously a challenging year. It ALWAYS is for the party in the White House. But these are unique times and we have a GOP that is now the INSANE and ULTRA RADICAL DEMOCRACY-HATING GQP aka THE TRUMP CULT and if we run SMART and STRONG campaigns we CAN win. Here is what I recommend and what I saw in these races we won last week.

* FOCUS HEAVILY ON THE LOCAL BREAD AND BUTTER ISSUES (Jobs, Jobs, Jobs,; help with childcare, increasing wages, supporting in person education, beating down the virus, infrastructure including broadband, etc.)

* TOUT DEMOCRATIC ACCOMPLISHMENTS (hundreds of millions of vaccines administered, free covid tests, American Rescue Plan, Infrastructure Bill (projects starting THIS YEAR), strong and steady job and wage growth, unemployment under 4%, etc.)

* BRAND THE GQP AS RADICAL ANTI-DEMOCRACY RIGHT WINGERS (WHICH THEY ARE) WHO ARE WAGING AN ALL OUT ASSAULT ON VOTING RIGHTS, WOMEN'S RIGHTS, CIVIL RIGHTS, AND OTHER RIGHTS. (There must always be both a postitive message and negative message to show the stakes of the election. If the GQP gets in, THEY ARE COMING AFTER US AND ARE ALREADY DOING IT ALL OVER THE COUNTRY.

* GROUND GAME GROUND GAME GROUND GAME. Work the ground EARLY and HARD.

[Sherman A1]

1. But, but, but......

This doesn’t fit into the preprogrammed narrative of the cable noise drama infotainment media.

Just doesn’t comply with the Democrats in disarray mantra……..

[True Blue American]

5. You see that too?

MSNBC is the worst.

[Sherman A1]

9. They are all useless

I watch foreign news sources to find out what is going on . NHK news on right now.

[True Blue American]

11. I like the Guardian or local news.

[Sherman A1]

13. The Guardian is good

It is on the news feed on my phone.

[True Blue American]

19. Honestly my IPAD is my

News source. Phone when I am out waiting on something.

I try to hibernate in January and Feb. if it is bad. Books on Libby.

[samsingh]

22. there is no programmed narrative - but healthy fear. During the final weeks of 2016

i can't count the number of times people kept writing - 'relax, Hillary has this'. Hillary is great, but when you have the FBI, russia, and other dark money involved outcomes can change as we saw. I don't think trump won 2016, but was able to exert just enough changes to beat the system.

[MrsCoffee]

27. She won by 3 million votes. More people voted than in the history of this country.

Changes? Is that what you call his political warfare? Changes?

Corrupt, blackmailing, psyops using, coup attempting piece of shit won by exerting changes?

2016 will go down as the most corrupt election in our history to date.

But, it was Hillary or overconfidence or apathy or some other boogeyman? Hillary is great, but…..

BUT the mf’er cheated. Blackmailed election officials and once in office even bought off a Supreme Court judge and got him to retire. He was nothing more than mob boss who cheated his way into the system.

It wasn’t overconfidence. It wasn’t apathy. It wasn’t our candidate who drew more voters and won by a wider margin than ever before.

We definitely have to be vigilant for the midterms. But 2016 was not about overconfidence.

[happy feet]

34. Thank-you!

and, of course, Comey reopening email investigation right before the election-unprecedented.

[JohnSJ]

38. It was Comey. By all polls Hillary was leading by around 4 points, and 11 days before the general

election, Comey released a letter to the republicans.

The republicans and the media falsely said the email investigation was reopened. That was a LIE. The illustrious media then paraded every right wing pundit across their outlets perpetuating that LIE.

It was only on late Friday, the weekend before the election that Comey quietly came out and said there was nothing new to reopen any investigation.

The damage had been done. Hillary had lost the entire lead she had.

One does not need to be a rocket scientist to realizes the cause and effect from Comey's recklessness, and violation of the Hatch Act.

[calimary]

42. I will NEVER forgive Jim Comey for that.

He could come to me on his knees, with a gift box full of diamonds, and I’d still kick him in the teeth and out the door.

Might snatch the diamonds though…

[JohnSJ]

46. Yes. About the only thing trump did tright was to fire his ass, though it was for the wrong reason

[betsuni]

64. +1

[Demsrule86]

29. By all historical measures Hillary did have it...but of course Comey steeped in and some

on our side betrayed Democrats and Progressives by not voting for Hillary...may all of those who did not vote for Hillary never have a peaceful night...they brought on the court fiasco, babies in cages...all the horrors of the Trump administration.

[Demovictory9]

2. excellent

[True Blue American]

3. Great news!

But have you heard any of this on cable news?

MSNBC has become unwatchable. Every morning Jonathon LeMire begins his show with how much trouble Biden and Democrats are in, how they failed. This morning he showed a whole video of Trump babbling on NewsMax. If I wanted to watch NewsMax, Jonathon, I would.

The delightful Kasie Hunt is filling in for Brianna. Both brilliant. Goodbye MSNBC. You are not fit to watch.

[calimary]

43. It's unwatchable. They're rushing the funeral early.

And Chuck Todd sure loves accentuating the negative.

Sure glad I have DU - to keep some semblance of my sanity.

[True Blue American]

47. Both of us!

[malaise]

4. Excellent post

Great news

[Lovie777]

6. Thank you . .

all I've had been reading about is Democrats - doom and gloom bullshit with no mention of GQP in the fight for their semi soul of their party plus January 6th.

[ashredux]

7. Of course ALL of them were "stolen" from the GOP......

Republicans now NEVER lose any election….

That is their One Trick Pony Playbook

[maxrandb]

12. Well, they Retrumplican that lost by 49% in FL has refused to concede

Gee, it's almost like this is becoming a pattern.

But please MSM...more stories about Dems disarray

[jmowreader]

62. He lost by 59 percent!

That bastard got BURIED and still refuses to admit it.

[druidity33]

8. Have we lost any special elections? nt.

[Emile]

14. Good question!

[onenote]

36. One vacant seat was won by a Republican

The special election was cancelled because no one filed to run against the Republican candidate.

[bucolic_frolic]

10. I suggest to you

the Democratic Party has been challenged to GOTV in many elections. At times it's like the apparatus just wasn't adequate. For example, we elected Obama '08, but flubbed 2010 midterms.

What are we seeing now? An engaged party and country? If voting became a habit rather than a 'oh, those guys in suits don't juice me very much' attitude, could we outperform past elections by a big margin?

I don't know. But the evidence you suggest gives hope. We need to push all the buttons, all hands on deck. This is the biggest crisis we've faced since WWII.

THanks for the OP!

[Demsrule86]

30. We didn't flub the mid terms...our side stabbed President Obama in the back by not showing up.

If we show up, we win.

[FBaggins]

15. None of this appears to be true. Links?

The Maine seat has been trending blue for the last decade and the margin of victory (about 18%) was about the same as the last two elections.

I don’t see any Massachusetts house election in the last few days (let alone a flip off a long-standing red seat). There was a state senate election, but the democrat was effective unopposed.

Both the VA and FL seats were as expected. You say “there were no guarantees” - but that Florida seat is at least D+30. If that’s not a guarantee I don’t know what is. The Virginia House seat us similarly bright blue.

We don’t need to know what works in holding D+30 districts. It’s the dozens of D+5 districts that we’re worried about

[kwolf68]

16. I agree with you on this, but...

I don't see any of this as any true indicator of the elections. That all said, had Republicans won 4 elections, even in right leaning areas, that would be peddled as evidence that the nation will send out Democrats in November.

It's a double edge sword. Democrats win elections but there is no mandate. Republicans "win" elections even if they don't get the popular vote and they govern like they got 90% of the vote. It explains why a party who has won the popular vote in 1 single presidential election since 1988 somehow created a 6-3 supreme court majority.

[sheshe2]

52. Here is the link to MA.

Belsito is first Democrat to take 4th Essex since 1858
By John P. Muldoon -November 30, 2021

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/


Not last week, 11/30/2021 but good enough for me.

[IronLionZion]

17. Shouldn't we dwell in gloom and doom

and keep sharing media hit pieces where Dems are finished and should just give up?

[Demsrule86]

31. Some think so but I don't...I think we may have a surprise for the GOP.

[IronLionZion]

33. It would be great if GOP let their guard down and phoned it in

while not realizing that they lost a lot of voters in big swing states from COVID.

Depending on how fast the Fed can reign in inflation, GOP won't have anything left to hit us with since there are plenty of jobs and COVID numbers should be down by November I hope.

[Demsrule86]

40. True that.

[Icanthinkformyself]

20. Good news

for Democrats is everywhere. I've learned to ignore the political games the media plays and stopped buying the 'Dems in Disarray, Republicans poised to win big' BS. It's all just blowing smoke to keep the campaign horserace going for the ad buy profits. It's 'Capitalism' at it's 'finest'. The expected toxic red tide is turning into a cleansing blue wave. I see light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train coming at us. Vote, donate, phone bank, knock on doors. Whatever it takes to GTVO.

[Norbert]

21. Yeah but we're doomed.

The extreme outlier poll with the small sampling has Biden approval rating at 35%. We're dooooooooomed.

[lees1975]

50. That's the one the media will find, not the YouGov trackers where Biden is now regularly at 50%

[samsingh]

24. this is good. Many of the repug states elsewhere in the country have corrupted their voting

to let repugs win more seats than they should so we need to win in the areas that are still counting votes fairly.

[Etherealoc1]

25. I agree, stick with the bread and

butter issues, accomplishments,

and the extra votes to get the

needed help over the finish line.

Forget TFG but contrast how

99.9% of the Democrats are

fighting for all Americans while

the Republicans did nothing

but try to obstruct progress.

[LENNY0229]

56. In some places invoking TFG may be important. DEPENDS on the place. But not everywhere.

[JI7]

26. Focus on Local Level Campaigning. Don't be distracted by Cable News .

This is how Right Wingers always win things like school boards and other things that most media never pays attention to .

Talk about how Biden and Democrats gave money to fix bridges and other things that will get improvements.

[LENNY0229]

57. Yup

[onenote]

28. Reality Check - The OP is overstating things by quite a bit

As post #15 indicates, the OP has exaggerated the significance of last week's special election victories. None of them provide any predictive guidance for November 2022.


Maine: The Democratic candidate won a special election to fill a vacant state house seat. The Democratic candidate got 57 percent of the vote. In the two previous elections, the Democratic candidates had won with 58.6% and 59.6% of the vote.

https://www.pressherald.com/2022/01/11/democrat-jim-boyle-wins-special-election-for-seat-in-maine-house/
https://ballotpedia.org/Maine_House_of_Representatives_District_27

Massachusetts: There was no special election to fill a vacant state house seat in Massachusetts last week. There was a special election to fill a vacant state Senate seat. The Democratic candidate was unopposed in a special election to fill a vacant State Senate seat; the seat previously had been held by a Democrat who also faced no Republican opponent in the previous two election cycles.
https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_State_Senate_First_Suffolk_%26_Middlesex_District

Virginia: The Democratic candidate got 75% of the vote in a district that is majority minority and in which the Democratic candidate won with 80% a year ago and with 85% in 2017 (in 2019 the Democrat was unopposed in this district).
https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_House_of_Delegates_District_89

Florida: The Democratic candidate won a special election to fill a vacant US House seat, getting 78.7% of the vote -- the same percentage as the Democratic received in 2020 (the Democratic candidate was unopposed in 2018) https://ballotpedia.org/Florida%27s_20th_Congressional_District

[Demsrule86]

32. Ina midterm year, one would expect the GOP to win some special elections...

the fact that they haven't and not just this group either is a good sign...so why not look at the bright side rather than discourage our voters and make them feel like it is no use...if that happen many will stay home. I don't understand why you post this.

[onenote]

35. No one 'expected' the repubs to win any of these particular elections

Why did I post this? Because facts matter. I'm not trying to discourage anyone. But do you really think that a post that falsely claims that we flipped a seat when no such thing occurred is a good thing? If so, why not post that we won control of the all of the state legislatures? Not true, but it would make people feel good. (By the way, the Republicans have won a special election this year -- well, actually, they won without having the election held since the Republican candidate was unopposed).

And it's just silly to think that anyone, anywhere, expected Republicans to win any of these four special elections in districts where Democrats have consistently won by double digits (and in some cases where Republicans don't even bother to field a candidate).

There are 28 special elections scheduled between now and July. You can follow them here: https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2022

You will see that in nineteen, Democrats are the incumbents and in nine, Republicans are the incumbents. No one who follows these matters expects any of these races to flip a seat from red to blue or from blue to red. Why? Because they are all "safe" seats based on the margin of victory in previous elections. Indeed, in many of the districts, there was no opposition fielded in the previous election (and in some it is likely that there will be no opposition fielded in the special election). Where there were two (or more) candidates in the previous elections, the winning margin almost always was more than 25 percent and often was 30+. The closest thing to a "competitive" district is Michigan House 43, where the special election will be held on May 3. That seat was won by a Republican in 2020 by "only" 19.4%.

We need to work our butts off in competitive districts. We don't need to spend time spiking the football over races where the outcome is predetermined.

[Demsrule86]

39. That is the point, it a truly terrible year for us, I would expect to see upsets. And I haven't.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

49. Yep. Facts matter and I appreciate you posting this solid info.

If only we could be ENcouraged, rather than DIScouraged to do all we can rather than give up in the face of the facts. I have trouble doing this myself, but prefer a realistic look at the situation. Knowing that these seats were pretty much safe, is an important part of the picture.

[LENNY0229]

60. Let me please enlighten you a bit further though as to why these wins matter:

The Maine seat WAS in fact vulnerable, and the Dem won strong. And Dems won other recent special elections.

In November a Dem flipped a red seat in a Maine swing district. (Maine House race)

In December a Dem flipped a red seat in Massachusetts that a Dem hadn't held since 1858. (MA House race)

In ALL these recent special elections, R's did not improve their margins. If there was a massive anti-Dem sentiment, the R's should have performed better. They didn't.

D's didn't take the seats for granted and ran good campaigns. IT MATTERS!

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

65. OK, thanks for the updates.

However, the problems are going to be these new laws Rs have been passing that suppress the Dem vote, and allow the Rs who have seized the administration of the elections to declare R candidates as the winners, regardless of the actual vote counts.

GOTV, great messaging, etc will not matter, then. That's where much of the Dem pessimism is coming from now. It's a understandable feeling of powerlessness.

[LENNY0229]

53. See my other post where I correct the Massachusetts detail, and see my other points.

[Mysterian]

37. Yay!

[flying_wahini]

41. All the crooked Rep. counting votes must have quit

[mvd]

44. K&R

Positive posts are greatly needed right now.

[turbinetree]

45. Like Ezra Klein said to Lawrence O'Donnell....5 days ago ...

Ezra Klein: Real Political Engagement Can Defeat Trumpism
Jan 13, 2022

[Zambero]

48. That's funny...

I was just informed by another DU-er on another thread that, beginning today, we should throw in the towel and resign ourselves to certain defeat come fall. I don't know about anyone else, but I am cancelling the prior instructions!

[LENNY0229]

54. That's the kind of stupid crap that ensures election losses. MY GOD.

[OneCrazyDiamond]

51. Thank you for this.

I kinda think we will keep the house, and pick up at least 2 in the senate. I dont see how the GQP is viable after Jan 6th.

[LENNY0229]

55. THERE IS ONE CORRECTION I DO NEED TO MAKE AND A FEW MORE POINTS:

First, a correction. The Massachusetts HOUSE win was on Dec. 1st, not last week. That an honest mistake. I cited the wrong one in the OP. However, THAT win was the first time a Dem won that seat since the mid 1850's. It was contested and the Dem won by a decent margin. The one last week in Massachusetts was a Massachusetts Senate Dem hold.

Some people responding have said things like "These were heavily Dem areas so the Dems were supposed to win and were predicted to win." etc.

First, I clearly said that most of these were HOLDS and NOT flips. (Sorry about the Massachusetts error, though again, in Dec. in Massachusetts there was a Dem FLIP and also a Dem FLIP in Maine in November which is also damn good news and also supports my statements here that it doesn't have to be doom and gloom for us this year.)

Next, these victories matter because, as others have noted, if it was doomsday time for Dems there could, and likely SHOULD, have been an upset or at least the R's should have OVERperformed even if they lost. NONE OF THAT HAPPENED. Special elections in the dead of winter can be very UNPREDICTABLE. It all depends on who is motivated to GET OUT AND VOTE. We did not see ANY significant R margin gains as far as I could detect. Same dynamics last month in Massachusetts and in Maine in November where Dems FLIPPED that Maine House seat.

I stand by my statement that the Maine race last week was a potential flip from blue to red, and it could have happened had the D's not mounted a strong effort taking nothing for granted. The R's had a good candidate, and if Dems hadn't shown up it could have gone Red. So it was a doable upset in favor of the R's. But the Dem still won with 57% and in a 3-way race where the Indy no doubt took more from the D than the R as that person leaned more progressive than right wing. Certainly if it was doomsday for Dems then the R should have at least been able to make it a CLOSER race. But who came out and voted? Dems did, not ultra motivated R's or Indies wanting "change". It was Dems who came out. Sure, low turnout as always in these kinds of races, but who DID bother to come out? Dems!

So, as said in my other OP, Dems won because they SHOWED UP and R's didn't. They CAMPAIGNED. They didn't take anything for granted even in these Dem-leaning areas.

Now, I know next November is a different situation, and by historical trends it is ours to win and theirs to lose. But we CAN do well, at all levels, IF we do the things I said:

* Campaign hard on local bread and butter issues.
* Define the other side as the RADICAL RIGHT WING democracy attackers that they are who are coming after us.
* Tout the accomplishments (jobs, wages, infrastructure, etc.)
* Run a strong ground game starting early and with energy.

I also want to make one more comment, and this is about last November and all the doom and gloom talk. NJ Governor was theirs to lose and ours to win according to all historical trends. We won that reversing the historical trend. R's did perform very well, but they still lost when history says they should have won. Also, VA was ours to win and theirs to lose, and it was only lost by 2.5% and that is with losing Indies there by 18% (which WAS scary and what we REALLY need to reverse elsewhere). Losing Indies was the MAIN reason we lost in VA. Huge historical and national headwinds did that, along with a McCauliffe's education issue gaffe and the R's doing better focusing on local issues. Yet in VA McCauliffe still won the most votes of any Dem and damn near won the election and COULD have, I believe, if not for the gaffe and some other campaign errors (slow groundgame and a too unfocused issues message). So last November did NOT necessarily spell complete "doom and gloom" for us, and we can blunt the historical trends IF we run a strong, smart campaign.

[Joinfortmill]

58. 👍

[Blue Owl]

59. That's the spirit!!!!

[Nictuku]

61. K&R

Seems the media is quiet about this. K&R for more exposure. Thank you for posting!

[Mike Nelson]

63. Yay!

... I trust that was four out of four! I would add two topics to your fine guidelines... Crime and Inflation. We need to get tougher on Crime - starting at the top. If the ex-President gets away with crimes, what example does that set? Also, support the Police as the trained professionals running around with guns, not your teenaged son!. And, we should celebrate the strong economy by getting Inflation down. After seeing the last two Republican Presidents drive the economy off the cliff, we should know which platform works!