WHY OUR VERY RECENT SPECIAL ELECTION WINS MATTER

[LENNY0229]

(We had special election wins in Maine, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Florida last week. The first three were state legislature races and the FL race was for U.S. House.)

First, a correction from my earlier post about our special election wins last week. The Massachusetts HOUSE win was on Dec. 1st, not last week. That an honest mistake. I cited the wrong one. However, THAT win was the first time a Dem won that seat since the mid 1850's. It was contested and the Dem won by a decent margin. The one last week in Massachusetts was a Massachusetts Senate Dem hold.

Some people responding to my earlier post said things like "These were heavily Dem areas so the Dems were supposed to win and were predicted to win." etc.

First, I clearly said that most of these were HOLDS and NOT flips. (Sorry about the Massachusetts error, though again, in Dec. in Massachusetts there was a Dem FLIP and also a Dem FLIP in Maine in November which is also damn good news and also supports my statements here that it doesn't have to be doom and gloom for us this year.)

Next, these victories matter because, as others have noted, if it was doomsday time for Dems there could, and likely SHOULD, have been an upset or at least the R's should have OVERperformed even if they lost. NONE OF THAT HAPPENED. Special elections in the dead of winter can be very UNPREDICTABLE. It all depends on who is motivated to GET OUT AND VOTE. We did not see ANY significant R margin gains as far as I could detect. Same dynamics last month in Massachusetts and in Maine in November where Dems FLIPPED that Maine House seat.

I stand by my statement that the Maine race last week was a potential flip from blue to red, and it could have happened had the D's not mounted a strong effort taking nothing for granted. The R's had a good candidate, and if Dems hadn't shown up it could have gone Red. So it was a doable upset in favor of the R's. But the Dem still won with 57% and in a 3-way race where the Indy no doubt took more from the D than the R as that person leaned more progressive than right wing. Certainly if it was doomsday for Dems then the R should have at least been able to make it a CLOSER race. But who came out and voted? Dems did, not ultra motivated R's or Indies wanting "change". It was Dems who came out. Sure, low turnout as always in these kinds of races, but who DID bother to come out? Dems!

So, as said in my other OP, Dems won because they SHOWED UP and R's didn't. They CAMPAIGNED. They didn't take anything for granted even in these Dem-leaning areas.

Now, I know next November is a different situation, and by historical trends it is ours to win and theirs to lose. But we CAN do well, at all levels, IF we do the things I said:

* Campaign hard on local bread and butter issues.
* Define the other side as the RADICAL RIGHT WING democracy attackers that they are who are coming after us.
* Tout the accomplishments (jobs, wages, infrastructure, etc.)
* Run a strong ground game starting early and with energy.

I also want to make one more comment, and this is about last November and all the doom and gloom talk. NJ Governor was theirs to lose and ours to win according to all historical trends. We won that reversing the historical trend. R's did perform very well, but they still lost when history says they should have won. Also, VA was ours to win and theirs to lose, and it was only lost by 2.5% and that is with losing Indies there by 18% (which WAS scary and what we REALLY need to reverse elsewhere). Losing Indies was the MAIN reason we lost in VA. Huge historical and national headwinds did that, along with a McCauliffe's education issue gaffe and the R's doing better focusing on local issues. Yet in VA McCauliffe still won the most votes of any Dem and damn near won the election and COULD have, I believe, if not for the gaffe and some other campaign errors (slow groundgame and a too unfocused issues message). So last November did NOT necessarily spell complete "doom and gloom" for us, and we can blunt the historical trends IF we run a strong, smart campaign.

[PortTack]

1. Great post! Adding to that, a Troup county GA dem leader, reported they won 41 state wide county

And local board elections. They were quite pleased!

Another piece of news the gop gerrymandering is going to be a wash. In fact, at this point the current seat movement shows 7 seats leaning Dems, only one gop.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/?cid=rrpromo

[LENNY0229]

2. Very good points. If Dems vote we will do ok.

[LENNY0229]

3. We can do well IF Dems get out and VOTE.