Let's be clear as crystal. The R was FAVORED by historical trend to win VA in 2021. Period.

[LENNY0229]

We need to get it straight as people bemoan what is now going on in Virginia.

With one exception in 2013 THANKS to Terry McCaulliffe, over the last 40 or more years the party in the White House has LOST the Virgina election for governor. The R winning this year was disappointing but not a surprise. Dems just had it for two terms (they do one four-year term there, no consecutive second term), a Dem was in the White House which gins up the other party, and many people simply wanted change. In addition, there were very strong national headwinds especially around the issue of price inflation.

Terry McCauliffe did make some mistakes, and maybe could have EKED out a slight win had he not. HOWEVER, at the end of the day
it was also up to more Dems and Progressive Indies showing up.

What happened was you had a ginned up R party and moderate to conservative Indies went way over to the R side, mainly out of and issues around inflation and education.

Still McCauliffe got more votes than any other Dem in history. The problem was the Indy swing. Yes, maybe McCauliffe's education gaffe (about parents being involved in running schools) fueled that to a point, but historical trends and national headwinds also fueled it. In addition, no can just blame McCauliffe as there were still plenty of Dems and Dem leaners who SAT OUT. Had some more just shown up, that would have swung it the few points that would have been needed to eke out a win.

McCauliffe was not a "tired re-tread". He won the primary by a lot and had only served ONE term prior to this. He didn't run a perfect campaign, but not a "bad" one either. No "bad" campaign gets the most votes of any Dem in VA history and loses by just 2.5% while also enduring a swing of Indies over to the R side by a whopping 18%. He turned out a very good number of voters against strong headwinds.

Mad at someone about VA? Be mad at INDIES who went with SLICK YOUNGKIN who spoke "moderate" but has right wing views which McCauliffe CLEARLY pointed out time and again. (And also place some fair blame on Dems and Progressive Indies who sat on their butts and didn't vote.)

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Yup. A Dem win would have been an unexpected upset.

It would have reversed 40+ years of precedent.

[LENNY0229]

4. Absolutely true. It was possible but not probable according to the longstanding historical trend.

[brooklynite]

2. Why are you trying to retroactively explain McAuliffe's loss?

If the deck was stacked against him, he should have been savvy enough to odiferous his campaign strategy to accomodate that situation.

The person to blame for McAuliffe’s loss was McAuliffe. He tried to nationalize and Trumpify his challenger, and failed to address the basic issues of education and grocery costs that voters were actually concerned about.

[LENNY0229]

3. I have always said this, and it is because of recent posts to the contrary. And you are mistakenly

dismissing the WHOLE picture. And he DID address education, and he addressed many bread and butter issues. To say he simply didn't at all is not true.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. "And he DID address education, ..."

I going to guess he wishes he could have a do-over on that.

Still McCauliffe got more votes than any other Dem in history.

That's great. Youngkin got more votes than any other Rep in history AND more votes than any Dem in history. That's why he's now known as Governor Youngkin.

[LENNY0229]

6. There was the gaffe, true (taken out of context), but he said a TON about education. Such as:

*Hiring more teachers
*Supporting teachers in the classroom
*Early childhood education investment
*Keeping staff and students safe from covid

He talked about education a LOT.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. That's great, but where do we go from here?

What if RMS Titanic had left fifteen minutes earlier?

It didn't.

[LENNY0229]

9. More wins in the NEXT election and fight the R right wing crap there as much as possible.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

12. Or "here," as residents of Virginia say. NT

[SickOfTheOnePct]

11. I voted for McAuliffe

and donated what I could to his campaign; I desperately wanted him to win.

But his "gaffe" wasn't taken out of context, it was clear as day, and it pissed off lots of parents, including Democrats and independents. Even with the historical precedent running in Youngkin's favor, the voting patterns in the Commonwealth over the past three Presidential elections meant that this was Terry McAuliffe's race to lose.

And he did.

[LENNY0229]

8. And WHY did that happen by a mere 2.5%? To dismiss the historical trend and national headwinds is

not excusable. I have said in the OP that McCauliffe made mistakes. But when you
get the most votes of any Dem in the history of the state and only lose by 2.5% against strong national and historical headwinds,
that is NOT a "bad" campaign nor a "bad" candidate.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. "But when you get the most votes of any Dem in the history of the state..."

Pro tip: we refer to it as the Commonwealth.

But when you get the most votes of any Dem in the history of the state

That and four dollars will get you a cup of coffee at any Starbucks in the Commonwealth.

[LENNY0229]

13. "State" vs "Commonwealth"? Seriously? And if you are from VA you should know better than me

that this was ALWAYS the R's to lose and the D's to win. Let's please get real.

I am saying what I am saying in reaction to other posts lamenting this loss and totally blaming McCauliffe.
I have also said, again, that he made mistakes. But those were NOT the ONLY causes of this loss, and if you
are from VA and know the history then you know this. To dismiss it is incompetent election analysis.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. "State" vs "Commonwealth"? Seriously?

"State" vs "Commonwealth"? Seriously?

Thems what knows, knows, and thems what doesn't know, probably never will.

Pro tip number two: this thread would get more attention in the Virginia group.

Gotta go. I want to see how Amy does in Final Jeopardy.

Good gawd. She's got ... Oh, that would be a spoiler.

[LENNY0229]

17. Can't imagine anyone from MA, PA, or KY getting upset by saying "State" rather than "Commonwealth."

I'm from New England, have lived and gone to school in MA, and have long ties to MA and have visited it MANY MANY TIMES (going back again this summer). State and Commonwealth are interchangeable there, and have always said "State". No one ever got bent out of joint. There's bigger fish to fry my friend.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

18. That's nice, but what does that have to do with Virginia?

Have you seen the price of tea in China?

[FBaggins]

15. Why does that even matter?

What does the historical trend say about the midterm elections?

Will it make it acceptable when it happens again?

[LENNY0229]

16. Never ever said it was "acceptable". I am doing FAIR election analysis. It is not FAIR to say the

ONLY reason McCauliffe lost was because McCauliffe made errors. Every candidate makes errors. Youngkin made mouth errors too which McCauliffe worked hard to press.

As to 2022, it is theirs to lose and ours to win according to history. HOWEVER, we can OVERPERFORM, just as McCauliffe actually did this last time, and at least blunt the trend. And I have also said before that it is possible to BEAT THE TREND as McCauliffe actually did in 2013 and as Phil Murphy did in THIS YEAR.

It will take very strong and smart messaging and campaigning by D's with ENERGY and FOCUS, and it will also take DEMS and DEM leaners SHOWING UP.

One thing we must learn from this last cycle is how to blunt the loss of Indies. We do that, I think, by strongly touting the accomplishments, focusing heavily on bread and butter issues, and contrasting with the R's as them being RADICAL on both cultural and fiscal issues and having NO PLAN AND NOT BEING FOR ANYTHING.