why this picture should make us happy tonight - from Nate's 538 update just now.

[NRaleighLiberal]

?1

Conventions, debates are now done. MSM has spun what it can. It is now about two weeks of a superior ground game focused on swing states. Look at the line, and extrapolate it out two weeks. I see this as a great status update tonight. And slipping votes/stealing would be pretty obvious with where things should be by election day if the trend holds.

[meadowlark5]

1. Yay!! I hope it sticks!

[naviman]

2. Exactly

The momentum is with us!

[flamingdem]

4. We've got O-mentum! n/t

[flamingdem]

3. Nice. It never went much higher did it?

How quickly we forget, I remember 75% a bit fuzzy if it hit 80% one time

[Bigredhunk]

34. I Think It Was 81% or 87% Shortly After The 1st Debate

Before all the post debate spin and liberal hand-wringing, I think Nate had it up to one of those two %'s (81 or 87). Not sure though.

[Spazito]

5. Romney's supposed 'momentum' looks much more like "joementum"

That graph looks very promising!

[hrmjustin]

6. wonderful pic

[applegrove]

7. .

[font size=20] GO BAMA[/font]

[catbyte]

8. I feel better seeing it trend back up to 75%

[klook]

9. Elizabeth Warren's chance of winning = 89% too!

Hell yeah!! Long way to go, but I'm feeling better lately.

[renate]

26. that is so awesome!!!

[amuse bouche]

10. Now that's what I love to see

Thank you. This made my night. Wheeeeeeeeeeee

[nolabear]

11. Yep. Barring something utterly out of the blue we are in wrap-up mode. GOBAMA!

[Thekaspervote]

12. 74 on 538?

When I look at 538 I'm seeing 71 up from 68. Others posted that earlier as well. Great if it is 74

[NRaleighLiberal]

13. Its the now cast, which pretty much shadows the nov 6 forecast in trends.

[defacto7]

14. I'm also seeing mid September

at 100% Obama and 0% Romney on the above graph. ????

[defacto7]

17. But yep

that's what the site says! on the president now cast. 74.1% to 25.9%

and 100% Obama in mid September???

[NRaleighLiberal]

19. yes, his numbers were incredible pre-debate 1

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. the now cast was near 100% after the Dem convention and pre-debates.

shows how much the first debate tanked the win probability for quite some time. coming back at last.

[aaaaaa5a]

29. The NOW CAST and Nov. 6th number will eventually converge. nt

[Chichiri]

15. That's the now-cast. The forecast is at 71.0%.

That's 1.9 points up from yesterday.

[NRaleighLiberal]

16. Yup - the trends in both are the same - easier to see the trend in this version, hence the pic.

feeling pretty fine tonight!

[krawhitham]

23. 2.9 points from yesterday

68.1 to 71

[krawhitham]

20. That is the NOW cast not the NOV 6th forecast

[NRaleighLiberal]

21. Yep - it sure is. the forecast and now cast have parallel trends/slopes.

[pointsoflight]

22. Exactly where we were in early September, but 6 weeks closer to election day!

[Thekaspervote]

24. Thx for pointing out the difference with the now cast

I'll take it sleep well

[Turborama]

25. K&R and thanks for sharing. It looks really cool if you turn it on its side

It kind of looks like an alien with antennae sticking out of its head. Hoping those antennae get reeeeally looong!

[Ellipsis]

27. Awesome

[JB126]

28. Beautiful!

Thanks, I really needed that tonight! FORWARD!!!!

[ProudProgressiveNow]

30. Quite a bounce! K&R

[lobodons]

32. Who knocked over the candlestick?

damn, this makes me able to sleep better tonight. But still, that does look like a candlestick that has been knocked over.

[Jazzy_Obama]

33. This is wonderful

But I won't celebrate yet untill I see the presidents victory speech & Romney Conceding! Then I'll pop the champagne cork!

[SleeplessinSoCal]

35. I especially like the falling red line. Gives me a little more faith in the electorate.