Is the country getting close to "herd immunity"?

[kentuck]

Many people are still getting the Covid virus. Millions have a natural immunity from having the virus already. Over two hundred million Americans have taken the vaccine.

People are slightly more optimistic that the virus has become "manageable". There is evidence that the severity of the virus has decreased in recent weeks and months.

There is an acceptance with some folks that it is endemic, like the flu, and we will have to deal with that as we go forward. They feel that the worst of the pandemic is behind us.

I hope they are right.

[hatrack]

1. No, but we've probably achieved Herd Stupidity . . . .

.

[Throck]

3. Herd stupidity recently achieved?

Tack on a decade or two.


Or three.

[Throck]

2. If it follows the cycle of the Spanish Flu of 1918 YES.

However if this is a virus that was manipulated by man, then no telling what may happen.

[bigtree]

16. The 1918 influenza strain never disappeared, rather it continued to mutate and is still around

The 1918 influenza strain never disappeared, rather it continued to mutate and a version of it continues to circulate to this day.

Dr. Keith Armitage, a professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Case Western Reserve University, says this is likely due to a combination of herd immunity and the virus mutating to produce a less severe illness.

The 1918 influenza strain never disappeared, rather it continued to mutate and a version of it continues to circulate to this day.

“The 1918 influenza virus eventually mutated to the point of not having a high number of deaths — again, eventually over 3 years or so. We may very well be witnessing this process with ongoing variants of SARS-CoV-2,” said Rohde, noting that there is too much uncertainty to know if this is definitely the case.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-can-learn-from-the-1918-flu-pandemic-as-the-omicron-variant-spreads#What-happened-to-the-1918-flu-strain?

[Ohio Joe]

4. We are at what... 2k+ dead every day...

I’d say no.

[kentuck]

5. How many Americans may have developed an immunity?

...to the point where the virus is not deadly?

[Ohio Joe]

6. I don't know...

I’m neither a doctor nor scientist but as best I understand it, the virus will continue to mutate and get less deadly. So if someone had the original virus, then if they catch it 10 mutations later… They have some immunity but it’s still a different virus. My gut tells me that within a year or so we’ll be at a point where we would get a shot every six months or a year much like a flu shot. For those refusing to get vaccinated, I would not be surprised if it remained deadly for a number of years.

[JanMichael]

9. The dead people are fully immune now. Also having had COVID does not confer permanent immunity.

So my serious answer is - I do not know.

[kentuck]

11. I doubt that anyone has "full immunity"..

...but enough immunity to keep from dying. That was the thing about the vaccine. It did not prevent or keep anyone from catching the virus. It kept the severity at a lower level and kept many people from dying from the Covid. The whole idea was to develop an immunity to the disease. Hopefully, that has happened to a large extent.

[Mary in S. Carolina]

7. 80.1% of everyone, over 5 years old, in the US

has had at least 1 shot and almost $1,000,000 dead according to the CDC. I think we are getting close, but I am not an expert. If we could get everyone to get the remaining 2 shots, we could probably get back to normal.

[kentuck]

8. "Normal" is a relative term.

But we could get to a much-improved situation.

[BlueJac]

10. No

[bigtree]

12. Experts: Immunity wanes over time, new variants mean population-level immunity won't remain stable

While data on reinfections of the Omicron variant is limited, some experts say most people will have a grace period during which they are unlikely to become sick with the same variant again.

But they caution that immunity wanes with time, and the potential for more variants to emerge means the population-level immunity earned during the Omicron wave won't remain stable.

Omicron subvariant BA.2 raises new questions about puzzling evolution of virus behind COVID-19

"If you've had Omicron, you're probably good for a minimum of three months before you'd really have to worry about catching it again, unless the next variant is super, super different than something we've seen before," said Bruce Mazer, a professor of pediatrics at McGill University and associate scientific director of the COVID Immunity Task Force.

"It really depends on how the virus mutates. If the virus stays the same as the ones that we've been vaccinated against, or Omicron, then you've got good protection for a while. Unfortunately, if it mutates again, then we don't know."

Samir Sinha, director of geriatrics at Sinai Health System and the University Health Network, said the strength of immune response will depend on a person's age and overall health. The very old, very young, and immunocompromised will have weakened responses, and the degree to which a person became ill may also come into play.

"Sometimes depending on the severity of your infection, it might also translate into the immune response that you might create. If someone had a severe infection that might have been prolonged as well, they might have a much more robust immune response and potentially a higher level of immunity," said Sinha.

"But you can't just tell by that — there are so many different factors to determine what your level of immunity is and how long that immunity will last."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/omicron-reinfection-risk-1.6331600

[Samrob]

13. We are closer to "herd lunacy."

[Wingus Dingus]

14. I think so. Considering the ratio of omicron infections to deaths now,

compared to this time last year (original virus before widespread vaccination), it's definitely getting better in terms of not overwhelming the medical system. At some point Omicron will run out of people to infect--it's inescapable if you have to be out in the world.

[Mr. Ected]

15. Oops, I misunderstood your question.

I thought you were referring to Trump giving his herd immunity from prosecution for the events of 1/6/21.

I think we're closer to COVID herd immunity than Trumpies are to criminal immunity, but it's neck and neck.

[Voltaire2]

17. There is no evidence that Covid

will dissipate because of ‘herd immunity’. Instead it appears to be capable of mutating around either vaccines or prior infections.

See ‘the flu’ for an example of another set of viruses that we just don’t develop herd immunity to.