Why Voter Suppression Probably Won't Work

[brooklynite]

UVA Center for Politics

Former President Trump and his political allies continue to push baseless allegations of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election more than a year after Joe Biden’s inauguration. Largely in response to those allegations, Republican state legislatures around the country have enacted dozens of laws intended to tighten identification requirements, limit access to absentee voting, reduce the time period for early in-person voting, and limit the use of drop boxes for absentee voting. Democrats have responded to these new laws by proposing legislation in Congress to override these laws but have failed to pass new voting rights laws due to unified Republican opposition and the unwillingness of 2 Democratic senators to modify the filibuster rule in that chamber.

An important question raised by both these new laws and Democratic efforts to override them is just how effective such voter suppression laws would be in reducing voter turnout among Democratic-leaning voter groups. In an earlier article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the impact of expanded absentee voting on the 2020 election. I concluded that increased use of absentee voting had only a small impact on turnout and no effect at all on the Democratic margin in the 2020 presidential election. In this article, I expand my focus to look at the effects of other voting procedures that Republicans have targeted, including increased availability of early in-person voting, use of drop boxes for absentee voting, and stricter identification requirements for absentee and in-person.[1]

The results reinforce the findings of my previous research. These voting rules had only minor effects on turnout and no effect at all on the Democratic margin in the presidential election.

[Walleye]

1. I agree. Before 2020 it was Republicans mostly used mail in ballots

The GOP has so dirtied up and complicated the election procedure, nobody’s going to want to vote particularly their own people. However, Democrats are gonna vote by hook or by crook. The more they try to keep us from voting the harder we try to vote. That’s history

[JohnSJ]

2. Redistricting is a potential problem, and is also an element of voter suppression

[brooklynite]

4. Actually Cook calculates that Democrats come out AHEAD (2-3 seats) in redistricting

[dsc]

11. from an awful base

if we had fair maps we would gain at least 10 seats.

[Demsrule86]

13. But we can gain 10 seats by gerrymandering states like California, New York ETC...

probably more than 10.

[dsc]

17. This 2 or 3 includes a very aggressive gerrymander of both NY and IL

and while not a massively aggressive one of CA a quite decent one.

[Demsrule86]

14. So we beat them at their own game...by gerrymandering Democratic strongholds.

[FBaggins]

3. Which is why the greatest threat to democracy...

… or at least to Democrats retaining political power…

… is the constant drumbeat that we’re watching the end of democracy.

I continue to maintain that we will lose far more votes to people not showing up because they believe that the game is rigged - then we’ll ever lose because some state disallows drive thru voting or handing out water in line.

Added to the normal political cycle and the president’s polling numbers - this will kill us.

[Demsrule86]

12. I absolutely agree with you...this constant negativity here and elsewhere about are electoral

prospects discourage voting. And those who engage in this ( you know who you are) should stop. How about lending a helping hand instead of using those (could be useful) hands for handwringing.

[tritsofme]

16. Leadership shares a lot of fault on this, IMO.

They inexplicably set sky high expectations for bills like HR1, which they knew had no chance of passing the Senate. It never made sense.

[XacerbatedDem]

5. So...

are they saying TFG lost the election because too many people turned out and voted for Biden?

Huh, so that's how that works.

[Hoyt]

6. +1. As Stacy Abrams said when Georgia enacted their BS law last year, voter education is the key.

[Demsrule86]

10. The ability to 'fix' the votes tossed out for BS reasons in Georgia really helped...hats

off to activist groups who called voters and got them back to the election offices to stop the GOP steal in Georgia.

[Hortensis]

7. Suppression is just one arrow in their quiver that includes gerrymandering,

blatant election theft by state governments, election apparatuses and courts, and of course the electoral college advantage.

But still it's encouraging to think it could be true. "Such efforts could even backfire by angering voters..."

No attempt to measure this, but yes they do tend to do that, just not enough.

[Demsrule86]

9. Several of their maps have been struck down by state Supreme courts...Ohio and North Carolina

for example. Also, Democrats are finally fighting back by gerrymandering high population blue states...about time.

[Hortensis]

18. :) Hi. Yes. And many more lawsuits wending their ways through.

Yes, it is time, which is why it's being done now. And hope it's enough, of course. Given what the Republicans have become, the last two elections should have given us a large advantage. "The people" have really been screwing the pooch.

[Demsrule86]

8. I agree. In fact, it may bite the GOP in their collective asses as many older Republicans votes

use mail-in ballots and early voting as well.

[SharonClark]

15. Motivation to vote for or against a candidate was high in 2020, but

voter suppression laws do work to suppress turnout among the population they are intended to suppress. Dems just worked 5 times harder in 2020 to get the voters to the polls despite fewer absentee ballot voting days, shorter hours at the polls, fewer polling places in Democratic areas, long lines at the polls in Democratic areas, limited drop boxes, restriction on ballot gathering, restrictions on who can register people to vote, and everything else the GQP threw at us. Since 2020, more voter suppression bills have passed which will make it worse in 2024.

I'm not as naive as the writer of the article. Suppression laws work or the GQP wouldn't keep passing them.