Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief

[HUAJIAO]

Russia has enough troops ready to take Kyiv, says former Ukraine defence chief

THE GUARDIAN
Luke Harding in Kyiv
Sun 6 Feb 2022 08.49 EST

White House believes Moscow has amassed at least 70% of firepower needed for mid-February invasion.

Russia now has enough troops to seize the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, or another city, but Moscow’s forces are not yet sufficient for a full takeover and occupation of the country, according to Ukraine’s former defence minister.

In an interview with the Guardian, Andriy Zagorodnyuk said the situation looked “pretty dire”. “Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine. But we still don’t see the 200,000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion,” he said.

His comments follow an ominous briefing by the Biden administration about the Kremlin’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border. The White House believes Moscow has assembled at least 70% of the firepower it needs to give Vladimir Putin the option of a major military operation by mid-February.

On Sunday, the US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said an invasion could take place at any time. “It could happen as soon as tomorrow or it could take some weeks yet,” he told NBC. “We’re in the window where something could happen. We believe the Russians have put in place the capabilities to mount a significant operation.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/06/russian-troops-ready-to-seize-ukrainian-capital-says-former-defence-chief

I also greatly worry about Taiwan !

[Duncanpup]

1. Here is hoping for peace

[Irish_Dem]

2. He doesn't need 200,000 troops if he first uses air power and missiles?

Air power is often used in battle to soften the target and cut back on the need for ground troop forces and to prevent troop casualties.

Of course this plan would mean many more civilian casualties.
And destruction of the infrastructure.

Putin and his generals have decisions to make.
I don't know how evil they are.

[Klaralven]

3. There are lots of pictures of tanks, guns, and vehicles.

But I haven't seen pictures of tents, temporary barracks, or other troop housing on the Ukraine border.

[David__77]

5. This all seems like hype to me.

…

[EX500rider]

9. Actually that was the most chilling article I read last week..

....said the Russians were moving up MASH hospitals to the front, not a good indicator. (might have been BBC, can't remember)

[dalton99a]

10. Medical units AND blood supplies

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-says-it-sees-little-scope-for-optimism-in-u-s-proposals-on-ukraine-11643290065
Russia Sends Medical Units to Ukrainian Front
Jan. 27, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/
Russia moves blood supplies near Ukraine, adding to U.S. concern, officials say
January 29, 2022

[Lucky Luciano]

4. They'll keep the peace during the olympics. Beijing doesn't want their time to shine ...

…be ruined. Putin will grant that favor…after the Olympics? Watch out.

[Lancero]

12. Depends on how the Olympics go for em.

If they're taking a lot of wins, they'd be mighty annoyed if something else happened to steal away attention. If it starts to look like they're going to do poorly, they'd most certainly prefer people to be looking at something else.

[NickB79]

6. 43 million Ukranians

Iraq had 24 million when we invaded with 177,000 troops initially.

20 years later, how did that work out?

[HUAJIAO]

7. Just for balance, Russia has a population of 146,000,000.

and about 1,000,000 in the military. Ukraine's military is between 215,000 and 250,000.

[former9thward]

18. The Iraq war went fine in terms of overthrowing the government.

That just took a few days. The failure was trying to recreate Iraq as a Western style republic.

[dalton99a]

8. Photos

[Tommy Carcetti]

11. Kyiv is an absolutely stunning city

Gold domed churches and ancient fortresses throughout.

Besides the human cost, I would hate to see the potential cost to history.

[Lucky Luciano]

14. Agreed. I loved Kyiv. Highly underrated traveling destination. Was there for work twice.

I explored like crazy mostly by foot on the weekends. Probably walked 15 miles each day on the weekends.

[HUAJIAO]

16. For your listening pleasure...

Myung-Whun Chung with Orchestre Philharmonique de Radio France

[Buckeyeblue]

13. Why wouldn't NATO preemptively perform some strategic hits on the build up?

If I know I'm going to get into a fight, why let the other person hit me? Why not move first?

I'm pro full defense of Ukraine. I think it's essential to stand ground against Putin.

This is way more important than either of the gulf wars.

[former9thward]

19. Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

There is no treaty obligation to defend it.

[Buckeyeblue]

20. But an invasion of Ukraine is a threat to countries in NATO

[Xolodno]

24. Actually, no.

A number of NATO nations don't give a damn about Ukraine. This isn't a hill they will get nuked over.

[former9thward]

25. What about the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 in Crimea?

No threat then?

[Dial H For Hero]

21. Um...because it would start WWIII? Keep in mind Russia has *lots* of nukes.

Even were it (somehow) guaranteed to stay conventional, the European members of NATO have very little ability to project military power these days.

[Buckeyeblue]

22. So then we'll just let Russia invade?

Russia's use of nukes would ensure its destruction.

I'm not sure I agree that a preemptive defense of Ukraine would trigger WWIII. For one thing, I don't believe China or the Saudis want WWIII.

I'm not angling for a war. But I also don't want to see Ukraine decimated before we defend.

[Dial H For Hero]

23. Presuming they do so...yes we will.

As for the definition of WWIII, I would assert that NATO going to war with Russia fits the bill quite nicely.

I am curious just what sort of preemptive strikes you're calling for. Should we send in waves of bombers? Cruise missiles from submarines?

I'm not angling for a war.

You're calling for NATO to attack Russian military assets. That is war.

[Buckeyeblue]

27. It seems like that's a mistake

Seems like if you give Putin an inch he'll take a mile. And I assume he doesn't stop with Ukraine.

But maybe I'm wrong.

[Dial H For Hero]

28. If we did strike Russia preemptively, what do you suppose their response would be?

[Buckeyeblue]

29. I think they would say they were outraged

They would threaten retaliation. But I don't think they would escalate.

[Dial H For Hero]

30. I would point out that in your scenario, NATO is already at war with Russia.

If we had (for instance) launched airstrikes from a carrier task force in the Black Sea, I can't imagine that the Russians wouldn't do their level best to sink it.

[Buckeyeblue]

31. That's a scenario you have to be ready for

I get it's risky. Isn't giving Putin a win risky?

[Dial H For Hero]

32. Are you willing to lose tens of thousands of American lives in a war with Russia? I'm not.

[Xolodno]

17. I can tell you what will happen...jack shit.

If Russia was going to invade, it would have already happened. This is classic slow walking. And I think our intelligence apparatus is greatly diminished since the DFG attacking them, as a result, many professionals left. How on earth can you report that Russia had a plan to use doctored specific footage without compromising the source that will get them killed? It was leaked on purpose by Russia to troll us.

If there was going to be an invasion at the level reported, it would have happened at the end of November. Roughly another month, its mud season.

The mobilization is on purpose and will be made semi-permanent due to Zelensky jailing not just pro Russia politicians such as Medvedchuk but even neutral politicians and once US supported Poroshenko.

The troops are not to start an initial invasion, but are there when the house of cards eventually collapses. They know it, we know it and everyone else knows it. We're just trying to get ahead of some bad publicity.

[roamer65]

26. Afghanistan II, the Sequel.

They may take Kyiv, but it will turn into a absolute quagmire for Russia.

The west will ship and smuggle arms into Ukraine via Poland and Romania.