The numbers game in the senate

[keroro gunsou]

Question for those here who are more knowledgeable than I, hint, everyone else but me. How many seats do we need to take in this midterm to negate whatever power that senators sinema and manchin have to completely fuck things up with their obstinate flip flopping in the name of being bipartisan? How does it look? I live in wisconsin and from what I can read in the tea leaves is senator johnson is in trouble and could lose, so that’s one in our favor.

Anyone else have some insight and wisdom they can impart to this knucklehead?

[Phoenix61]

1. 3 nt

[keroro gunsou]

2. so flip johnson from wisconsin

and who else are likely republican losers?

[DLCWIdem]

6. We can pick up Pennsylvania with Fetterman

[Wounded Bear]

11. I hear they have more than one good Dem candidate...

I'm a Westerner, so I don't know.

[DLCWIdem]

14. Yes. I can't remember his name right now.

Fetterman has name recognition as he is the current Lt governor but may have some trouble with minority voters. Looks to be a good primary to watch as long as it doesn't get too acrimonious or toxic.

[634-5789]

8. PA looks logical.

[DLCWIdem]

3. Wouldn't 2 do it? That would give us 50 with a tie breaker.

[NurseJackie]

5. No, just one flip would do it.

-1 Republican
+ 1 Democrat
= a difference of 2

[NurseJackie]

4. If we flip ONE seat, that gives us a TWO vote advantage.

If we flip ONE Republican seat, that gives us a TWO vote advantage. (-1 Republican ... +1 Democrat equals a difference of two.)

[DLCWIdem]

9. But Manchin and Sinema won't vote with us. So we need 2 to get at least a rules change

[NurseJackie]

10. True, but that wasn't part of the original question.

... at least not that I could specifically discern.

[Wounded Bear]

12. Actually, the OP does mention the Manchin/Sinema problem...nt

[NurseJackie]

15. Yes, but there was no mention of wanting to know what was needed in order to change senate rules.

It was just a generic "problem" that addressed no specific goal. For calculating purposes, if we treat those two as being likely to always vote with the GOP, then we'd need to flip a single GOP seat to bring the Senate back into a 50/50 parity with the VP as the tie breaker... and that solves the "Manchin/Sinema problem".

[DLCWIdem]

16. But they have 50

If we treat Manchin and Sinema as voting Republican then they have 52 while we have 48. If they lose 1 in next election they go to 51/49. If they lose 2 then it goes 50/50 with Harris pulling the tie breaker. I have a feeling that once that happens though Sinema will flip back. Manchin will stand his ground though, IMO.

[634-5789]

7. We need 3. Three's that number we are shooting for!

[Wounded Bear]

13. The more the merrier...