So, the war games have begun

[EndlessWire]

I guess they started their war games on time today (Thursday the tenth.)

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-news-war-games-belarus-nato-warns-putin-against-invasion/

Everyone is nervous. I couldn't find what the Russian Navy is currently doing. They should have concluded their live fire exercise by now, but didn't hear a word about it. So, are they now doing it?

These games are supposed to continue for 10 days, ending coincidentally with the end of the Olympics, but not the Paralympics.

Meanwhile, the Russians are teasing with notice that since we pulled our embassy people, maybe that indicates that WE are planning something. Piss off, Russia. This is completely YOUR fault. History will remember this crap.

Praying for peace. Let the asshole Putin finish his games and go home. He better not cross the border.

I still have dreams of world peace, prosperity, and happiness. But, today I'm kinda teary eyed. Ukraine doesn't deserve this.

[Irish_Dem]

1. Some online reports say Feb 15 is the date Putin can move troops,

trucks, tanks in large numbers. That is when the winter deep freeze makes the ground hard enough to prevent moving in mud.

[EndlessWire]

2. I agree with you

but I read somewhere that the weather is atypical this year. Things are crazy. Which is probably good, as mud is a simple defeater of tanks.

I have a tree in my yard that drops leaves and refeathers. This year, it has regrown its leaves and put out blooms already. That's freaky.

It is curious as to why Putin would choose this timing for his "games." If he doesn't intend, or never intended, to invade, this has to be the worst timing in history. But, after the joint manifesto from Xi and Putin, one wonders.

[Irish_Dem]

3. It is all connected, and no coincidences.

Xi intends to be a global superpower and soon. He has been in African and Latin American for decades spending fortunes on their infrastructure. And buying up valuable minerals and resources. Chinese troops are stationed there as well.

Xi is now forming an alliance with Putin, to establish regional power in all of Asia.

Both Xi and Putin have a goal of bringing down western democracies, using psy-op tactics to make the US/Europe look foolish and weak.

At the same time showcasing Russian/Chinese strength and power.

Putin can move the troops around the 15th. If he uses air power and missiles he would do that most likely around the 13th? This would reduce his need for ground troops and decrease his troop casualties.

Reports indicate he would have to move his troops out by the end of March, again the mud problem.

[EndlessWire]

5. You're right.

I think it is interesting how Biden defined a world war as Russians and Americans shooting at one another. This was in the context of all Americans leaving Ukraine. My impression was that any accidental strike against Americans might result in a shooting war with American troops, and therefore, in order to avoid this situation, he wanted all noncombatants to leave NOW. I think this is why he cautioned that there was not a situation which would cause him to rescue Americans out of Ukraine. I trust this announcement and figure it's to let Russia know that such an excuse won't fly here. Russia is obviously looking for an excuse it can use.

But, when he said that if Russians shot at Americans, and Americans were shooting at Russians, that it would be a WW, to me that would mean that all our Allies would be involved. I don't think that China would stand by then, and I also think that NK is working hard to have something to contribute.

Because Russia has chosen to dig in at the border and start practicing, I got to wondering how far a shell could be lobbed from their tanks and artillery, as that could lead to a mistake. What if some green troop miscalculates and shoots across the border?

I think your time estimates could be correct. It's already the tenth. There are too many Russian components for there not to be a perilous, breath-holding period of time coming upon us. We will laugh long and hearty if Putin rolls home. If not, good luck to us all.

[Dial H For Hero]

7. The largest Russian conventional artillery has a range of up to 55 km. Their largest rocket

artillery has a range of up to 90 km.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4. I expect that if/when war comes

The Russians will initially limit attacks to long-range artillery and airstrikes rather than mass armor and infantry movements. My understanding is that the Ukrainians could do significant damage to the latter but have little to counter the former.

Qualifier - this is not an expert military opinion. There are plenty of armchair generals willing to fill that role.

[Irish_Dem]

6. I agree with your points.

Last edited Fri Feb 11, 2022, 09:27 AM - Edit history (1)

With the warning that I am not a general and don't play one on TV.

We are just talking basic battle strategy 101.
And I am a total amateur.

Yes it makes sense to do long range artillery, missiles, air strikes prior to sending in the ground troops.

This way Putin can avoid some troop casualties and also cut down on the troops needed. It will mean more civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure however. Probably Putin doesn't care about that.

Yes I am reading that Ukraine air power is weak.

And how long can they stand up to 100,000 Russian troops after missiles and airstrikes?

Some reports say the ground will be a muddy mess at the end of March. So Putin either has to get his troops in and out or stay put?

[EndlessWire]

8. Hah!

You can bet that Ukranian households are talking this very same way. We're just talking, and it's permissible. It helps to control nerves to try and figure out what comes next. We're not saying, Oh, this is what will happen. We're saying, This could happen.

So, since the weather doesn't respect borders, does muddy ground mean that he has to leave Belarus in order not to get stuck there? What if he gets stuck there?

[Irish_Dem]

10. Half of battle planning is psychology.

Psychology is my wheelhouse, that is why I am interested in how presidents/admirals/generals/field commanders think. I am just an old AF military brat and am fascinated with the Army and Navy. I don't know Army/Navy jargon or protocol at all. And have never served in the military.

Right, we are just speculating about what could and might happen, based upon limited knowledge and skill level. We are just WAG but that is OK.

Yes, Ukrainians and Pentagon generals are having the same discussion we are. It would be remiss of them to ignore what might happen.

We don't need a West Point education to see Putin is playing with everyone. We also know he is a ruthless sociopath and capable of causing a lot of trouble. But he is not psychotic/stupid/easily manipulated like Trump. Putin in some ways is much more dangerous than Trump. Putin is smart, very focused and ruthless. Of course Trump is reckless and psychotic, along with being a sociopath. So he is also causing a great deal of damage.

We just don't know what Putin will do at this point.

Typically you don't go to the trouble and significant expense amassing a huge number of troops unless you are going to do something.

The longer Russian troops just camp out doing nothing, the more money it is costing $$ Putin and the more pissed off the troops get.

The generals/admirals are doing a much better job than we are! In addition to their vast training and experience, a big advantage for them of course is they have classified intel, and we just have info from the internet.

Putin could be deceiving us in various ways. For example the weather reports about the deep freeze/mud could have been floated by the Russian military to confuse the time line. Which wouldn't fool the US military as they have their own expert meteorologists. So it would be for civilian consumption.

However yesterday Biden told all Americans to get out of Ukraine pronto. Things could get crazy fast are Biden's words. So that makes me think the Feb 15 date for ground troops might be correct. But the air power could come any day now. Airplanes don't usually get stuck in mud.

I would think Putin would only do a couple of days of air power, to avoid a propaganda nightmare of civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure. So then we might be looking at Feb 13 as the start of air power.

But he is an evil genius and it might be his aim to send a very ugly message to Ukraine for defying him. Then the air date might be sooner than Feb 13.

If Putin wants to be a superpower he must demonstrate he has regional control. So it is quite possible from a psychology standpoint, knowing how Putin operates and what he is trying to achieve, that this situation could get very bad, very quickly.

We also know that Putin is a ruthless sociopath and he would be capable of causing horrific carnage, his biggest problem in his mind is world image. He wants to be seen as all powerful, but killing women and children might not be an image he wants to project.

Back during the Viet Nam war we were stationed in parts of Southeast Asia, in those days housing was right next to the flight line so we saw our dads take off for DaNang all the time. We knew the type and function of the aircraft and what our dad's jobs were. We also knew much of it was classified, but we could figure out a bit what was going on. We knew some of what we were told were cover stories. Gary Powers for example was not doing weather reconnaissance when he was shot down over Russia.

In terms of Belarus, if you look at a map, it is north of Ukraine. So they probably have an earlier deep freeze date. I just took a glance at some of the pictures of tanks in Belarus and it looks like they are moving. Of course could be a stock photo and misleading.

When Eishenower was in the UK planning D-Day, one of his biggest concerns was the weather. He had to get massive amounts of troops and equipment across the English Channel. Bad weather could spell disaster for his plan. He had a military weather specialist at most of the planning meetings.

[misanthrope]

9. Gaming with Peter