CIA expects Russian attack next week

[Klaralven]

The US intelligence services have issued the most urgent warning to the NATO allies of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine . According to SPIEGEL information, both the US secret service CIA and the US military informed the federal government and other NATO states over the course of Friday that, based on new information, there were fears that the attack could take place as early as next Wednesday.

According to several diplomats and military officials, the United States gave many details about the secret briefings. Routes for the Russian invasion were specifically described, as well as individual Russian units and what tasks they were to take on. February 16 was given as the possible date for the start of the invasion.

What information the sharp US warning is based on was initially not known in Berlin. However, it was said that the US accounts were very detailed and supported by many sources. Nevertheless, according to the line, one cannot assess and predict for oneself whether an attack is imminent. A point in time around mid-February had long been considered plausible. However, insiders also believe it is possible that the USA deliberately spread the information in order to torpedo the Russian attack plans.

Western military and diplomats said in the evening that the US secret services had apparently intercepted indications that the Russian leadership had prepared the military for next Wednesday. Whether this already represents a decision cannot be said with certainty at the moment.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/krise-in-osteuropa-cia-rechnet-mit-russischem-angriff-kommende-woche-a-2e10a45f-b6eb-4b1a-b692-2edc64c04adf

[msongs]

1. youtube - winston churchill, the wilderness yrs 8 episodes....putin as hitler

[bahboo]

2. oy....

interesting times...

[uponit7771]

3. LOL ... if Putin doesn't attack CIA can claim they thwarted him.

[Xolodno]

6. Reminds me of a very work-political department I used to work in.

I was asked to build a better statistical model, the current one was only correct about 5% of the time. The one I built was 14% and I concluded there were other variables that we do not have access to, nor legally can get, so no model is going to suffice.

A bit while longer, the person who invented it, who was now a Director touted the model as capturing 80% of the salesforce that leave. Yeah sure, it did do that, but it also captured a lot of the salesforce that didn't leave, thus a huge error rate. Like finding a needle in the hay stack, top off 20% and say the needle is in the rest. Well no shit sherlock.

But that's how he played it to the higher ups and avoided the obvious issues.

[uponit7771]

8. lol ... and the higher ups just took his word for it. Too many people are innumerate

[Xolodno]

11. Yeah, he managed to get away with that shit for awhile.

Then they hired a President who also had a background in Economics, re-org'd all the analytics divisions...then he was canned.

The new President actually offered me a higher position, but had to turn it down. Family member had cancer and I knew it was going to consume my time and maybe put me on FMLA. She beat it thankfully and I probably could have went back and asked for the promotion (he told me once things settle down, book a meeting with him and he would find something for me), but I got offered an "offer I can't refuse" in another division of the company, more money and less stress. So it all worked out.

[uponit7771]

14. NICE !!

[moondust]

4. routes, units and their tasks

That's pretty specific intel. I don't recall a public release of specific intel being used as a tactic before. If reasonably accurate it could indeed torpedo Russian plans by removing the element of surprise and telegraphing knowledge of their capabilities. Putin would be a fool to do it.

[DFW]

5. A risky, though maybe necessary move

Letting on that we know that much in the way of their specific plans has the advantage of making them think twice about marching into hostile territory that anticipates their every move.

It also reveals to Putin and his generals the extent of our penetration of their forces and intelligence, which is something I would only do if I had rock solid information that all preparations for an attack were already completed, waiting only for the « go » order.

[Yanicosco]

7. CIA?! I don't trust them or the FBI as far as I can throw 'em! n/t

[Tommy Carcetti]

9. Let me guess...

Victoria Nuland and her magical coup cookies, amiright?

[Yanicosco]

10. Who? Wha? n/t

[W_HAMILTON]

12. Da, comrade! Da!

[Yanicosco]

13. My God. You trust them?

You must be under 40

[W_HAMILTON]

15. I trust them more than I do Putin.

[Yanicosco]

16. Talk about damning with faint praise! lol ,n/t

[W_HAMILTON]

17. Except that's the choice here.

I mean, you don't even need the CIA's assessment to see that Putin is gearing up to invade.

[Yanicosco]

18. Whatever n/t