Hey! I'm looking for some coverage of Ukraine's Military Defense.

[rgbecker]

My main source of info so far about pending invasion is from the NY Times. While there seem to be many pictures of Russian Tanks, Missile carriers, Fighter jets, helicopters etc. all I've seen of Ukraine's capabilities are pictures of individual soldiers in WW I like trenches. No equipment ie: Trucks, tanks, Howitzers, jets, helicopters...nothing...not even groups of more than 10 guys standing in the same area. There was a picture of some Florida national guardsmen getting ready to leave and some movies of some training with anti tank bazooka like weapons.....but again not too many troops and no equipment.

So has anybody seen anything different that would lead them to think there will even be a fight?

[dalton99a]

1. Ukraine is no match for Russia

[Beachnutt]

2. Can you post a chart like that of

US - Russia
UN - Russia
?

[dalton99a]

4. From 2015:

[Beachnutt]

5. Thank you

[niyad]

18. That is really 2015. The US defense budget is wayy over 550 billion, for one.

[JHB]

12. Not a neat one-glance chart, but a 3-minute video of chart items

Also, as far as I can tell the image you responded to is from 2014, when Russia was moving into Crimea. The video is from 2020.


edited to add: 4-minute 2021 video comparing NATO forces vs Russia

[dalton99a]

15. +1

[Beachnutt]

17. Thank you for posting this

[rgbecker]

6. I wonder where they keep all this stuff...do they have forts or airbases?

You would think the news guys would be taking pictures of some defensive installations or something.

[dalton99a]

10. Yes, they have military bases. From 2014 maps:

[PortTack]

7. Ukraine has no intentions of trying to match Russia's fire power. They are training for a protracted

Guerrilla war.

Think the Russians in Afghanistan, or Vietnam. Neither were successful in over throw

[NickB79]

14. Neither was Iraq or Afghanistan on paper

And yet we fought for 20 years before we had enough and left.

Asymmetrical warfare is the name of the game. And Ukraine has homefield advantage. Urban, door to door combat negates most modern weapons systems that Russia has in abundance. It all comes down to how many Russian body bags they're prepared to send home before the people turn on Putin.

[haele]

3. I'm pretty sure they've already got an idea of what Russia plans to do and are waiting.

It's actually pretty obvious what Russia is planning to do. The only question is whether or not the Russians have enough high tech communications weapons to counter the Ukrainian defensive options. Pretty obvious the Ukrainians have been planning on various asymmetrical war tactics, which is pretty much the only option the Russians are leaving them with.
Considering the corrupt gangland standard of living the Ukrainians and their Russian counterparts living in the Russian held areas have been going through since 2014, not many of the still free Ukrainians who have been building up a middle class based on merit vice political favors are going to put up with.Russian Oligarchs taking over again.

Haele

[PortTack]

8. Try looking at DW.com or other EU news sources. Much more reliable...NOT the guardian!

They are no better than our m$m

[Midnight Writer]

9. I've been wondering about drones.

I don't know shite from shin-ola, as I'm sure I will find out soon, but it's been on my mind.

It seems to me that hundreds or thousands of drones could be very effective for Ukraine. An armed drone is powerful enough to take out vehicles or personnel and are devilishly tough to defend against. They can be controlled from a remote location and risk few casualties. They could be kept in the air over "choke points" and make a border crossing by Russian troops very costly.

I know Israel has thousands of drones they use to confound enemy radar and weapon guidance systems. Does Ukraine have the same capability?

I see them as an effective defensive system, they are not expensive, and they can be used to surveil enemy movements and, when armed, disrupt them. I imagine as a soldier on a battlefield, if a few hundred drones swarm your army's position, it would be a nightmare. And to a pilot trying a bombing run, imagine dozens of drones in your airspace, armed or unarmed.

The controllers could be anywhere, in fortified areas or even outside the country.

I haven't heard any mention of this and i am curious why they would or would not be valuable here.

[dalton99a]

11. They don't have enough

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-use-of-armed-drones-could-offset-some-of-russias-enormous-military-advantage-11644676305

Ukraine’s Use of Armed Drones Could Offset Some of Russia’s Enormous Military Advantage
Turkish weapons employed by Ukraine in fight against separatists now readied in case of a broader war with Russia
By Brett Forrest and Jared Malsin
Updated Feb. 12, 2022 9:59 am ET



TB2s, viewed as utilitarian and reliable, have become the low-cost aerial weapon of choice for governments—such as Ukraine—that the U.S. and others restrict from acquiring more-advanced drones due to concerns over proliferation.

The TB2’s camera can laser-locate targets from roughly 12 miles, coordinating artillery strikes, according to defense analysts.

“Russian antiaircraft systems can’t see the TB2 at this distance,” said Yuriy Butusov, a Kyiv-based defense writer. “Ukraine has connected its camera to the battle management system and can observe at big distances with Russia being unable to take it down.”

In addition to reconnaissance and targeting, the TB2 can fire its own guided missiles. It can stay quietly aloft for 24 hours, with a maximum altitude of roughly 25,000 feet. A remote operator can manipulate the drone from as far away as 185 miles under ideal conditions. The TB2s can also take off from roads, not just airport runways, according to the manufacturer.

Recent deliveries have brought the Ukrainian fleet of TB2s to roughly 20, with more on the way, according to the Ukrainian air force.

[Midnight Writer]

13. Thanks. That answers that. Though it raises the question of why they don't have them.

It seems they would be more cost effective and more useful than "conventional" weapons.

I understand Israel builds their own for less than the price of a car. They are "stripped down" versions but they have so many that they don't need all the bells and whistles that our defense contractors want to put into every weapon system.

[EX500rider]

16. Here:

The key to the Russian strategy for conquering all of Ukraine is demoralization and multiple armed incursions that will overwhelm Ukrainian ability to handle the situation and further demoralize Ukrainians. Russia currently has nearly 100,000 troops in Ukraine or on the borders, Ukraine believes that Russia will make fifty or more simultaneous attacks using battalion size ground units, advancing into Ukraine from different locations along the northern border as well as from the larger garrison now stationed in Russian occupied Crimea. Russia also has some naval infantry units available for operations along the Ukrainian Black Sea coast as well as over 3,000 airborne and airmobile troops who can be flown in as small groups to attack or disrupt Ukrainian defense efforts. There would be a lot of artillery fire from the Russian side of the border initially as well as airstrikes inside Ukraine. All this offensive action will only last a few days because Russia has not got the supplies for anything longer. The invading units will go for some logistic targets that will provide needed fuel and food, but that cannot be relied on. The plan depends on demoralization of Ukrainians and economic collapse. NATO aid is not expected to be a major factor and keeping Ukraine from joining NATO has been a root cause of all this aggression against an independent Ukraine. Russia wants to make it clear that Ukrainians would be safer from this violence if they were part of Russia, and not an annoying neighbor.

Ukraine has formed and expanded its armed forces since 2014 and currently has 250,000 troops on active duty and most (80 percent) in the ground forces. Conscription was halted in 2013, but revived in 2014 because of the Russian invasion. Because of this Ukraine has several hundred thousand men with military experience who can be called up, armed, and organized into units to deal with a major emergency. The ground forces also include about 10,000 special operations and airborne/airmobile troops. Russia has many agents inside Ukraine and knows of the growing reserve and paramilitary forces and the enthusiasm of Ukrainians to obtain military training to defend their independence. Russia has a lot of reluctant conscripts which means a large portion of their ground forces are untrained or poorly trained for offensive or special operations. Russia is putting most of its effective units into the new Ukrainian offensive.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsf/articles/20211208.aspx

[niyad]

19. Just want to thank you, and the other posters in this thread, for a most

illuminating and informative discussion.

[jmbar2]

20. Some links

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/world/europe/ukraine-military-russia-invasion.html

Here's also a very good, lengthy analysis

&ab_channel=CISACStanford

[rgbecker]

21. Thank you everyone. Great input. Gotta love the DU. n/t

[jmbar2]

22. Just found this article from Kyiv Independent

Very informative post

https://kyivindependent.com/national/center-for-defense-strategies-can-ukraine-really-be-invaded-scenarios-for-a-russian-attack-analysis/

[rgbecker]

23. I'm bookmarking this link...they'll be the first to report an incursion.

Their current reporting down the left side, clearly dated with time stamp, is the most up to date I've found.

thank you Jmbar2