China Ukraine Strategy

[dvduval]

Maybe this is just another harebrained idea that would fall on deaf ears, but what do you think about the scenario?

Biden gets on the phone with xi jinping, and let him know that there will be peacekeeping forces preparing to help ensure the safety of non-combatants, and he is requesting that China send their forces to support this mission.

And the reason for the request is twofold. First, this will show unity that invadinh another country is against international law, and supporting those who are in need of humanitarian aid is just the right thing to do. This will help show that China is willing to support the sovereignty of peaceful people, and also willing to help those in need, as we all can see what happens when countries get invaded.

Second, it will deliver a clear signal that if China is NOT participating in this peacekeeping effort, it shows they support the right to invade other sovereign peoples, and therefore it is in the best interest of Taiwan that American forces are increased in Taiwan. After all, if China supports Russia invading Ukraine, it just shows they would do the same thing to Taiwan, so we will act preemptively to make sure that doesn't happen.

Of course this second step is not necessary, because China can simply help to protect the people of Ukraine from harm by participating in the peacekeeping force.

Although China and the United States are competitors, being the first and second biggest economies in the world, we can share the world unity, and help to build a more peaceful world. This is a great opportunity to work together to do that.

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. My nightmare scenario.

China invades Taiwan at the same time Russia invades Ukraine. No idea how this works out.

[Irish_Dem]

3. China is letting Putin go first to see how it works out?

[Bucky]

8. Strategically they're entirely different prospects

Taiwan is armed to the teeth, cultural unified, across a large body of water, and has stood de facto independent for 70 years.

Ukraine is low, flat land ideal for tank warfare & rapid troop movements and has always been dominated by "Great Russia" -- historically have been referred to as little Russia. The word Ukraine itself just means "the frontier" and even in English was being called the Ukraine until 10 years ago.

Biden and NATO have successfully manage this crisis, which was probably about 80% bluff -- and Biden did so with most of the Republican party all but openly supporting our global opponents. This was good work

[Irish_Dem]

9. China could take Taiwan easily.

Taiwan is not unified, some align with China.
So an invasion would also mean civil war.

China has the largest Air Force in Asia.
Has a large army and navy.

China can have Taiwan surrounded just like Putin is doing in Ukraine.

A massive air strike would first wipe out the military installations. They can electronically disable all communication.
Assassinate top military and civilian leaders with the agents already on the ground. Ships at sea lob armament to shore.
Finally ground troops are landed.

The only thing that can save Taiwan is US involvement.

China will get Taiwan in the end, I just don't know the timing.

[Bucky]

10. Your scenario, while a frightening dark fantasy, seems pretty uninformed

Doing so would trigger an economic train wreck for China itself. The reality is that Taiwan knows exactly what China is capable of and continually builds to prepare for that.

I would recommend a thorough survey of expert opinions. RAND, Brookings Institute, articles find in JSTOR, Jane's, Foreign Policy all can easily be accessed without leaving your desk.

There's a variety of opinions of whether China would be successful, or how much of a "porcupine" Taiwan can be. An invasion like what you're talking about would certainly leave Taiwan in a state that's hardly worth fighting for. Absolutely no one (except the Heritage Foundation) says it would be "easy" or without severe consequences. Xi certainly isn't pushing that line.

[List left]

4. THIS! nt

[qazplm135]

5. here's the cold reality

if Russia wants Ukraine, we won't stop them. We could, we won't.

if China wants Taiwan, we won't stop them. We could, we won't.

Because in both cases it involves committing substantial US forces to two countries that are next door to two nuclear powers.

And doing so for probably as long as we stayed anywhere else, which is to say a generation or more.

Now, we can make it painful economically, but we aren't going to do anything else, and that's what this is about...a test.

If Russia can do this relatively unscathed, then China can do it. That's why China is sticking by Russia, because Russia gets to be the test case.

[Lancero]

7. Economic sanctions wouldn't be a deterrence in Taiwans case.

Taiwan is the chip manufacturing center of the world, accounting for 52% of total semiconductor output, with around 90% of the total output for cutting-edge 5nm chips.

Trying to sanction China in response to invading and seizing control of Taiwan would do all of shit, because they could just fire back with sanctions of their own since, hey, guess what they just seized control of?

It's a reality that the US recognizes - Which is why we're investing a lot in more domestic chip production. Until we can being our domestic production up to snuff though, our economy - The worlds, really - is reliant on Taiwan. Amusingly, its a reality that China and Russia recognize too - Which is why they're investing a lot in their own domestic production.

And, well, making a bad situation even worse... Guess what country is #2 in the market? South Korea. If China takes Taiwan, they might as well turn NK loose and let them 'reunify' the country.

[Irish_Dem]

2. China is Russia's ally. Together they work to bring down the west.

Beijing probably egged on Putin in terms of the Ukraine.

China loves the fact the US is in a difficult position with Putin.

[AntiFascist]

6. Perhaps we need a worldwide alliance of democracies that is broader than the "North Atlantic"...

then we could include nations that aren't in the European region such as Taiwan. The purpose of this alliance would simply to be to shield and protect the autonomy of true democracies. Such an organization could even take action against Trump and his anti-democratic supporters, should they manage to take power again.

Unfortunately for China, they have demonstrated that they are opposed to democracy. China may prefer to keep the peace, but the only way I fear they would ever ally with the US against Russia is if we were to allow them to take Taiwan with no consequences.