Timothy Snyder: "What is Putin thinking?"

[Nevilledog]

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Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
"A tyrant thinks along with fear and death. In the case of Putin and Ukraine, thinking with death has perhaps generated a grand vision; thinking with fear has perhaps reminded a tyrant of the kinship of vision and vulnerability."

snyder.substack.com
"What is Putin thinking?"
Now "what?" but "how?" With fear and death.
9:13 AM · Feb 15, 2022

https://snyder.substack.com/p/what-is-putin-thinking

"What is Putin thinking?" This is an attractive way of posing the question about Russian military operations. It simplifies, because it allows us to focus on one person. It is engaging, because we can never know. Putin and his observers can be satisfied with such a framing: Putin because it lends him the spotlight he needs to play his shadow games, observers because it keeps them guessing what strange beast is projected against the wall.

It is a misleading question, though, because a tyrant never thinks alone. The history and literature of tyranny suggests that there is no such thing as solitude. A tyrant might appear isolated, but in reality thinks together with two ruthlessly inseparable companions: fear and death. If we consider the tyrant's companions, Putin's actions in Ukraine might begin to make a bit more sense.

Death first. No one must speak of a tyrant's death, least of all he. And yet death is present, growing ever closer, the silence around it ever louder. Ever more ambitious projects must be summoned to banish the unmentionable. If the dreams are grand enough, perhaps they can even transcend death, by binding the tyrant's memory with the eternal history of the nation. This is one way to understand the odd essay in which Putin imagines a millennial unity of Russia and Ukraine. The myth suggests a grand project, to be delivered by a decisive deed: a crushing military invasion of a weaker neighboring country. And so a tyrant, thinking with death, devises a policy that delivers it to others.

And yet. A tyrant thinks with death, but also with fear, and the second can be a check on the first. The very sincerity of a tyrant's wish to overcome death can leave him vulnerable. It can lead him to undertake projects that, in their very grandeur, expose him to ridicule or defeat. Perhaps here Putin might have grasped the folly of invading Ukraine: not for Russia or its interests, about which he need not care, but for himself. Should Russia face difficulty in a war, as it eventually would, this could generate opposition, from people who want their sons back from the front, from people who want peace. Putin could face a challenge, so to speak, from the left.

*snip*

[C_U_L8R]

1. Fascinating. Thanks.

Speaking of death and tyrants, anyone else notice Putin doesn't look so hot lately. Puffy and splotchy. Bad diet or something else?

[mitch96]

3. Does he drink?nt

[dalton99a]

4. Only on ceremonial occasions

[Tetrachloride]

2. More ungrateful martyrs and their ungrateful friends and family

rich and poor
Ukrainian, Russian, dogs, cats
white snow, yellow snow, red snow, grey snow, black snow

my last poem until July

[fightforfreedom]

5. Putin is not stupid.

He knows he can take over Ukraine quickly. What happens after he took over Ukraine is the problem. He would have to keep tens of thousands of troops in Ukraine for years. He would have to deal with underground Resistance groups throughout Ukraine. Groups that would be well funded and armed by countries like us.

He would be hit by sanctions from many countries. Holding Ukraine would bankrupt Russia over time. Putin knows that. He could try to take over another small part of Ukraine. I believe some parts of Ukraine are pro-Russia. I heard a news report saying Putins goal is to divide the people of Ukraine. Get them to turn on each other.