but it seems to me Putin wants five things from Ukraine, all of which are achievable through a limited invasion that consolidates existing gains and extends controlled territory to the Dnieper river. The most important on the list are warm water ports and arable land. Taking Mariupol and its surroundings would put a massive dent in both agriculture production and trade for Ukraine which assists the third goal. The economic punch could cause the destabilization of pro-Western govt and create long-term unrest that can set the conditions for a pro-Russian govt. to be installed. The hit to national morale from long-term occupation kicks things further into a Russian advantage. This also links Crimea via land to Russia proper, another strategic goal for Putin. I think Odessa, where Ukrainian Nationalism runs pretty strong these days, would be an unnecessary risk since those other gains would effectively give Russia control over both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea blunting Odessa's economic output whenever they see fit to do so. So long as Putin occupies parts of Ukraine it is not eligible for NATO membership. That has been his very vocal demand from the start and if he can avoid massive casualties on both sides in achieving these, it's likely NATO's desire for hardship incurred through sanction wanes pretty quickly as the US becomes more focused on Pacific issues. More casualties = longer sanctions and pain for Russia and the oligarchy won't put up with that for long.
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