Reuters/Ipsos congressional ballot poll has Dems ahead by 8 points

[bigtree]

...time for another flurry of 'Dems still in trouble' reports from NYT and others.

PollTracker @PollTrackerUSA
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Democrats 42% (+8)
Republicans 34%

@Reuters
/@Ipsos
~ 4,404 Adults ~ 1/31-2/7
https://ipsos.com/en-us/news-pol

Link to tweet

YouGov, Feb.16 (5pts.) :

Link to tweet

[LAS14]

1. What does this tell us? The whole problem with re-districting is that congress will be made up...

... of people who don't represent the majority of Americans.

[Omnipresent]

6. Ive seen numbers like, that for past polls...

Both are too low in percentages and way early in the cycle to mean much.

[OhZone]

2. O_O

[pwb]

3. Hopefully that percentage will increase over time.

The Blue are forming up.

[SoonerPride]

4. That poll is essentially meaningless.

Gerrymandered districts, restricted voter access, etc. mean Democrats can win the popular vote by a large margin and still get crushed and lose a ton of House seats.

Generic party popularity contexts mean zilch.

[bigtree]

9. we should wait for one that shows republicans winning

...before we take the polling seriously.

Yeah, that's how it works in internet politicaland.

[SoonerPride]

14. I'm just saying generic ballots don't mean anything.

[bigtree]

17. maybe

...I've had people tell me mere words uttered can determine the course of elections. I don't know.

But, yeah, a generic poll is just a snapshot estimate of the mood of the electorate at a given time... unless it's a negative poll for Dems. Then it's a harbinger.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Not so. Gerrymandering gives Republicans a built in advantage, but 8 points is a large lead

If this is a true indicator, and stays that way until the election, Democrats will be much more competitive than "conventional wisdom" has been predicting

[Doremus]

5. It's always the undecideds.

[progressoid]

7. they are split on who can restore trust in government: 36% Democratic candidate, and 33% Republican

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/half-americans-say-certain-to-vote-upcoming-midterms-021522

Americans are generally split on the important factor/issue when deciding who to vote for – 22% want a candidate who can restore trust in government, 21% want a candidate who is strong on the economy, and 17% want someone who has a plan to tackle COVID. Americans are evenly split on which party’s candidate would have a better plan for the economy (38% Democratic candidate, 39% Republican). More Americans believe Democrats are stronger on COVID-19 (42% Democratic candidate, 32% Republican candidate), and they are split on who can restore trust in government (36% Democratic candidate, and 33% Republican candidate).

Nearly half (47%) of Democrats believe that Democrats have been unable to get things done because Republicans are blocking their efforts, 25% think Democrats accomplished most of their objectives in 2021. On the other side, 46% of Republicans say Democrats have been too busy fighting amongst themselves, and 33% say they have been unwilling to push things through.

[TheRealNorth]

8. Still a lot of undecideds and fence sitters....

Who seem to break for the person with an "R" next to their name in the past few elections.

We need to get that "D" approval to 50% to feel better (and even then, who knows if that will be enough d/t gerrymandering).

[cdguster]

10. Give it time....

After the January 6 Committee begins televised hearings, and the SCOTUS overturns Roe, these numbers will look even better.

If I was Biden, I'd announce a plan to forgive student loans in 2023--he'll need a Dem Congress/Senate for that--and hope the young vote, already pissed about the loss of abortion rights, comes out in droves.

[gopiscrap]

19. welcome to DU

[uponit7771]

11. If we get another confirming poll like this with us ***EVEN*** then this spells nightmare for GQP

... and I'm talking about NEW polls because we were already up by 2 in Jan

This is good news people ... good news !!

[spanone]

13. the more tfg is out there ranting, the more Democrats will show up to vote

[Kingofalldems]

15. Kick and rec for Trump's secret pals.

[Kingofalldems]

16. Go Democrats!

[Wounded Bear]

18. Sounds good, lot of time left to GOTV...nt