Putin is trying to do to the Donbas region

[EndlessWire]

what he did to Crimea in 2014, and Georgia in 2008. If he follows the suggestion of the Lower Duma, and declares the Donbas regions as their own independent Republics, then he can say he did not invade Ukraine. Which, make no mistake, he did.

This whole thing seems to be an attempt to take over the Donbas region. When he took over Georgia, he established military bases in that territory. That's probably what he is seeking to do here, except that he is menacing Kiev bigtime, and seems like, without a NATO reaction, he would probably try to take the entire Ukraine area. But, he'd settle for the Donbas.

He has himself in a pickle here, because he would have to disengage from the two rebel areas, which IMO is where he has to save face. The rest of the world just wants him to go home, whereas those two areas are dependent on Russia's support. They don't want him to go home. So, he's kind of in it right now.

Why can't Poland and Litho take on Belarus if Belarus participates in shelling Kiev? Better yet, why can't they take over Kaliningrad? How would Putin like that? Not trying to start WWIII, just musing. Putin has sounded out NATO, and doesn't anticipate NATO with boots on the ground. But, did he consider that Poland and Litho can operate independently of NATO? Is the Donbas region worth losing Kaliningrad and Belarus?

Putin is getting away with every lowdown thing he does. He plans to get away with this, too. There has to be an immediate and very consequential outcome here. He seems to sniff at sanctions. Maybe he'd like to negotiate over Kaliningrad (I think he would throw Belarus under the bus.)

If he succeeds in this gambit, he'll just be back for more. As it is, he is right on time with the war plans he has advertised, and the whole world is aware of what he intends to do.

[Raven]

1. You got my Saturday brain going. I had wondered about Donbas but

honestly don't know about the region to go much further. I appreciate your post.

[doc03]

2. Does Poland have any kind of military that can take on Russia? Wouldn't give Putin the excuse to

move into Poland too? Then what? Putin's goal is to bring back the USSR.

[Wounded Bear]

3. That's why Poland joined NATO...nt

[doc03]

5. The op says Poland is not in NATO, I wasn't sure but they are a NATO country so there is no

way they will get involved.

[EndlessWire]

9. No, I didn't say that they are not a NATO country.

I don't know all the NATO rules. What is to stop them from applying themselves without NATO, even if they are members? Ukraine cannot prevail against the Russians, and it will be horrible if Russia is allowed to just waltz in, kill a lot of Ukrainians, and take the country. Someone has to help Ukraine.

Ukraine should be allowed immediate membership in NATO, yet they can't be allowed in because of this and that. Give them a provisional membership so Russia can be repelled. Russia actually thinks that they can sit in Belarus and lob missiles at Ukraine. There should be a consequence there if they do that. Sanctions are great, it will hurt them a lot, but then they will be sitting in Ukraine with a smug smile on their faces, and when we tell them to get out, they will say, "Make me."

I guess I am really upset over reading that Russia plans to arrest many people who oppose them, once they get in there. This is an old story that I am sick of.

No one wants to invade Russia! No one wants Russia! But, Russia just can't be allowed to occupy Ukraine. The whole pretext is just to take the Donbas, but he'll keep coming back.

[EndlessWire]

6. They don't intend to just sit there

and let NATO troops defend them. But, people are saying that they cannot do anything unless they are attacked directly. But, I think that if Belarus helps Russia attack Ukraine, then they should be able to do something defensive back.

We just approved a big bundle in billions for Poland to buy military hardware (at least 250 tanks plus other hardware.) It is my understanding that NATO countries can only sell hardware to other NATO countries. But, we have also sent over 3,000 troops to Poland. Poland has about 4 divisions of troops of its own.

Lithuania also was reinforced recently. They only have around 20,000 active duty, but they have at least 100,000 reserve troops to draw on, plus a few thousand NATO troops (US). They could probably take Kaliningrad away from Russia. It would give Putin a headache.

[former9thward]

12. It is incorrect that NATO countries can only sell hardware to other NATO countries.

The U.S. sells military hardware to non NATO countries all over the world.

[EndlessWire]

13. TY for clearing that up. n/t

[Wounded Bear]

14. As do the French, British, and Germans...nt

[EndlessWire]

8. It does.

Putin is counting on fighting only Ukraine. He needs to be made to fight on several fronts. Much more than he is counting on. Belarus had better watch out, because they can be fighting on two fronts, unable to help Russia. And, Russia can lose Kaliningrad. Maybe Poland would like to annex Kaliningrad. Maybe Kaliningrad would like to say goodbye to Russia.

Anyway, there is no way Russia can move into Poland just like that. There would be an awful lot of countries saying "no" to that. Plus, Putin has committed what, 70% of his entire military to his little "take the Donbas" adventure. They're going to be engaged fighting Babushkas on the ground.

NATO is free to reinforce NATO countries as much as they want. Russia has brought this on itself. Putin has done this. No one wants to invade Russia. But, Belarus and Russia had better watch out.

[Wounded Bear]

4. The norm for authoritarian aggressors is to infiltrate them...

have them declare "independence" and then have the puppet government "invite" Russia in for "defense" against the evil west.

[EndlessWire]

10. Which is what Putin has done several times. n/t

[Eyeball_Kid]

7. Your "theory" might be correct.

Putin isn't invading for a multitude of reasons. That he's using his "invasionary" force for a negotiating position of strength makes sense.

I had written earlier that Putin wants his Crimean occupation to be formally recognized internationally, and that he's giving himself a negotiating position by bargaining to withdraw his army in return for legitimizing his annexation of Crimea. Your perspective is similar, and Putin may be planning on more than just Crimea as a "legitimized" possession. And again-- he has to be stopped. Putin will nickel and dime himself into expanding a Russian empire by using threats of international war.

Biden, IMO, was correct by pushing Putin into Plan B, which is what you are surmising. Otherwise, Putin would overrun Ukraine in a matter of days. Sure, he'd suffer heavy losses in soldiers, materiel, and massive trade sanctions. He could destabilize his own country because everyday Russians aren't interested in expanding Putin's empire. They'll get nothing in return, so why would they be supporting this stuff? Besides, many Russians don't want their relatives in Ukraine blown to bits because of Putin's wet dream.

[EndlessWire]

11. If he is targeting Kiev

then it does appear like he plans to take a run at all of Ukraine. And yeah, I think that will be over in three or four days, with nothing left but the mop up. The population of Kiev is terrified but determined.

Why does Putin get to do this? Because Ukraine is not a NATO country. Bring Ukraine, Sweden and Finland in, and then see how enthusiastic Putin is for this shit.

[moondust]

15. Almost 2,000 ceasefire violations

in eastern Ukraine on Saturday.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/almost-2000-ceasefire-violations-logged-eastern-ukraine-diplomatic-source-2022-02-19/