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Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:06 PM

Unconventional Wisdom - Why Democrats may increase their control over the House And Senate

The conventional wisdom has long been that an incoming president will always lose Congress in the first mid-terms, though historically it's not as clear cut.

I'm going to make a prediction. In November, the Democrats will gain ground in both the House and the Senate. It won't be a blow-out- maybe 2 to 3 seats in the Senate, and another 8-10 in the House - but it will give Biden some maneuvering room that he doesn't have today. The reasons I believe this includes the following:

1. The Pandemic is reaching a stage of being manageable. This doesn't mean that it's over. I think Covid-19 and its many, many variants are here to stay. However, we are reaching a stage where the disease is manageable, and where the understanding of how to treat it is sufficient that future variants will be fought largely by booster shots and oral pharmaceuticals, which wasn't true under Trump. This means that areas are now going off mandates, but it also means that Biden is effectively telling the states that it is now up to them to manage their health initiatives, with the Federal government acting as a coordinator and backstop. It means that we're now stuck with a permanent pockets of virus incubation, but frankly I think that the states most guilty there are simply going to fade away in importance as their economies get hit with an Antivaxxer tax.

2. The Pandemic, the supply-chain issues, inflation, the Great Resignation are all interrelated. As the pandemic's political import fades, so too will the supply-chain issues, the great resignation is a realignment of workers with opportunities that is showing signs of weakening, while inflation is now cresting, meaning that it's not going to get any worse and should start getting better. This is happening globally. The Fed will almost certainly start applying the brakes with interest rate rises, the economy should cool somewhat (though not dramatically) and a few high profile committees looking into price gouging should start curbing the opportunistic companies that are raising prices under cover of inflation.

3. When the Soviet Union fell in 1989, Republicans proclaimed the victory of capitalism over communism and seemingly overnight, Western businessmen were flying in droves to figure out how best to fleece the newly "enfranchised" workers. Democrats were more wary, because the Federal Russian Republic was still fundamentally Russian - a cold, geographically large, resource-rich country with a history of authoritarian leaders going back to the Tsardom of Russia in 1541. Russian interests, in general, have been butting heads with American ones going back to not much long after the American Revolution. Putin's latest on-again, off-again invasion has suddenly reminded a lot of older Americans especially that Russia still has more nuclear weapons (6,400) than the US does (5,500).

4. This means that the Republican party is about to be cloven down the middle between those who see Russia as an ally (mostly those who want to see the US crash and burn so they can institute their own theocracy, libertarian paradise, confederate stronghold or survivalist playground in its place) and those who remember nuclear preparedness drills in grade school, when we were all supposed to duck under our tiny, flimsy school desks when the flash lit up the windows indicated that the end of the world was nigh. This could not have come at a worse time, for the GOP. It means that Biden, a *bleeping* Democrat, is now standing up to Putin surprisingly well as a potential wartime president, with what is clearly a manufactured pretext by an historical antagonist. His ratings are climbing pretty quickly even despite the deluge of bad press. If Putin backs down, then it is this moment of Bidens that people will remember in November. If he doesn't, I fully expect that the US will be funneling drones, equipment, intelligence, and perhaps eventually, troops into the Ukraine within the next few weeks, though I expect troops on the ground are going to be the last piece of the puzzle, only if everything else fails.

5. Meanwhile, in Trumpland, there are a lot of very conflicted MAGAts. Trump was clearly buddies with Putin, even if Putin is no longer taking his calls. The GOP wants to woo these same MAGAts back to the fold, but the most ardent MAGAts increasingly see the GOP as the enemy, much preferring their Lord and Messiah, Trump. This is likely going to translate into a fairly brutal set of primaries, and if "establishment" candidates win positions, I expect that the MAGATs are likely to sit on their hands in the general election and vice versa. If anything, the "disarray" that I'm seeing on the Democratic side has less to do with the Hillary vs Bernie battles of 2016 and more the typical bickering about which things to fund first. Manchin and Sinema are both still somewhat problematic, but I don't necessarily see the continued grandstanding playing out past April. In comparison, the GOP is tearing itself apart.

6. The electoral maps, which a lot of Democratic pundits in particular have expressed concern about before they were completed, are turning into something of a wash - courts are calling out egregious gerrymandering in places where it could make a difference, state initiatives are forcing independent re-draws of gerrymandered maps, and Democratic lawyers are winning lawsuits where Republicans have tried to disenfranchise voters. There might be even a slight tilt to the Democrats at this point, though it would be very small. This is good - an electoral map should be balanced, not clearly partisan either way.

7. Investigations. Trump is facing severe legal jeopardy on multiple fronts at this point. The investigations are moving slowly, but it's worth acknowledging that, unlike when Trump was in office, the Justice Department is not going to quash the investigations. I expect indictments to start flying in the May-June timeframe: the Jan 6 investigation, SDNY, multiple civil lawsuits, electoral fraud, RICO, and more, and several Republicans will likely be facing jail time. Will Trump? I doubt it, though I wouldn't be at all surprised if one or more Trump children aren't wearing orange jumpsuits by the election (Kuschner would be my guess). The point is that while I do not see the investigations changing many Republican minds, it will influence a lot of independents, and it will leave a lot of chaos in its wake politically.

8. Right now, replacing DeJoy is stalled in the Senate, but I'm not sure they'll be able to stonewall much longer. Ironically, if the Ukraine conflict kicks off, Biden may be able to call on the War Powers act to ensure improved communications, which includes making sure that mail can arrive in a timely fashion. Biden is not going to call on these powers unless there is a clear and present danger, but it gives him leeway. I expect that state lawsuits against DeJoy may also finally start making their way through the courts. One way or another, I think it will be hard to stop vote-by-mail in 2022, which is clearly an objective of the Republicans.

9. Overreach. The more extremist elements of the GOP are hitting a point of diminishing returns. Red states are enacting increasingly draconian laws in any number of areas, from abortion to voting restrictions to worker constraints and rolling back civil rights laws, you're seeing plans for whole fleets of Freedom Convoys clogging up the cities and highways. What's worth noting is that the Freedom Convoy in Canada was condemned by most of the country, including by truckers who might otherwise have been sympathetic. This to me is a sign of overreach - the reactionary forces are now beginning to engender a reaction of their own as people get fed up with the bad behavior, the lack of civility, the petty meanness, and the attempts at gaslighting.

Now, we're still nine months from the election and the situation could change quickly, but I think the Conventional Wisdom that the Dems are going to lose ground in the Fall is mainly propaganda.

Thoughts?

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Arrow 17 replies Author Time Post
Reply Unconventional Wisdom - Why Democrats may increase their control over the House And Senate (Original post)
Metaphorical Feb 2022 OP
FreepFryer Feb 2022 #1
Bernardo de La Paz Feb 2022 #2
AZProgressive Feb 2022 #3
Elessar Zappa Feb 2022 #4
rso Feb 2022 #5
WarGamer Feb 2022 #6
Metaphorical Feb 2022 #10
AZProgressive Feb 2022 #13
Eyeball_Kid Feb 2022 #7
amaico Feb 2022 #8
dweller Feb 2022 #9
CousinIT Feb 2022 #11
Ohio Joe Feb 2022 #12
martigras Feb 2022 #14
thenelm1 Feb 2022 #15
Septua Feb 2022 #16
Septua Feb 2022 #17

Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:21 PM

1. I think I saw Undeniable Existential Threat of a foreign-aided openly fascist opposition party... :)

...in there somewhere great thoughts, letís work hard til then to make it happen!

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:25 PM

2. Thoughtful interesting analysis that I lean towards. A Distinct Possibility. . . . nt

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:30 PM

3. Finally some positivity

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:33 PM

4. I think you're right.

We have an opportunity to defy conventional wisdom. If all Democrats show up to vote, weíll win imo.

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:35 PM

5. Democrats

Good points.

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:38 PM

6. These things may affect 2024... but 2022 is too soon.

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Response to WarGamer (Reply #6)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 10:02 PM

10. I'm not so sure about that

I myself thought things were pretty bleak earlier, and I don't think the above is a foregone conclusion, but I've been trying to reconcile the gloom and doom that I'm hearing with what I'm actually seeing, and the two are not even remotely in sync. We're thirteen months into Biden's presidency, and in that time, he's already managed to have a profound impact upon the judiciary, has pushed a major infrastructure package, has removed the US from Afghanistan, has undone much (if not all) of the damage that his predecessor inflicted on the economy, has revitalized NATO, and has managed to make vaccines available to more than 250 million people, all with a razor thin majority in the Senate, including two fairly conservative members that he has to keep happy to maintain that majority.

Remember that the doom and gloom is mostly coming from the news organs of the top 0.1 percent of the population, the ones who do not want to be parted with any of that. The economy is doing very well right now and likely needs to be slowed a bit, unemployment is at historic lows, and this is really before any of the infrastructure work has really kicked in. Yes, BBB and the election bills would have been nice to have, but I don't think that it would have made a damn bit of difference in the news coverage.

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Response to Metaphorical (Reply #10)

Mon Feb 21, 2022, 12:04 AM

13. I think BBB would have helped a lot

Media was covering both infrastructure bills very heavily and if BBB passed that would have been a major accomplishment. Aside from electoral success it would have helped a lot of people.

Voting rights was more difficult because of the filibuster but when Republicans are cheating State by state we need it so Democrats can win in the future in fair elections. Things are bad in Arizona when it comes to the GOP legislature curtailing the right to vote. Voting rights is arguably the most important issue because 2020 is not the last time they will try to steal an election. Not sure how the media would have covered it but it is a very important issue.

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:47 PM

7. Well done.

You're addressing the continuing dominance within the American electorate of "common sense." Folks want a better life for themselves and their children. All of this GOP-right wing aggressive crap is running its course. It's not in our best interests to clog up cities and commit acts of racial hatred and treat American streets as if they're shooting galleries. While RW media continues to promote the rise of chaos and Trumpism, the sensationalism is losing its edge (IMO). So we're going to see a shift in public sentiments. And it may begin with the truckers' two-step. RW media is gearing up for a gloat-fest. They're ready to promote grievance on a massive scale to legitimize and idolize truckers on a mission from hell. I expect that the vast majority of people will be revulsed by the sheer destructive character of this immediate series of running events, they'll see that GOPers in leadership are cheerleading from the sidelines, and the whole affair will be worse than Fellini on acid. In sum, the radical right's actions will result in a Democratic and Independent reaction. And since there are a whole lot more Dems and Indies than Fascists On Meth, we'll see an increase in anti-fascist (no one will call it that) sentiments and voting than in the past. That's what will bring a Dem increase in membership in both the House and Senate. So I'm right with you in your analysis.

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 09:56 PM

8. I predict what the experts predict

 

A rout in the House and not in our favor.

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 10:00 PM

9. Antivaxxer tax ?

First Iíve heard of this, I fully support with collected $$ going towards those vaxxed
🤔


✌🏻

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 10:35 PM

11. Massive voter suppression?

Wondering if anyone thinks that will affect mid-terms and if so, how much?

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Sun Feb 20, 2022, 11:38 PM

12. Agreed...

And well laid out

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Mon Feb 21, 2022, 12:08 AM

14. One other thing to consider

Scotus is set to repeal Roe vs Wade. I think they have no idea how ticked off women are going to be when that happens.

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Mon Feb 21, 2022, 12:09 AM

15. And those on their side just keep digging deeper in the crazy nonsense.

What's the 1st rule of holes? Or the corollary of same? If your opponent wants to keep digging the hole, let'em? Or stay out of their way?

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Mon Feb 21, 2022, 12:57 AM

16. Thoughts

I think the odds for Conventional Wisdom proving true are slimmer than previous mid-terms...

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Response to Metaphorical (Original post)

Tue Feb 22, 2022, 11:54 PM

17. After today's outrageous comments from Trump...

..relative to Putin invading Ukraine and others thinking Trump would have done better, I don't know why the hell anybody would vote for any damn republican for any damn office.

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