National Sec. Adviser Jake Sullivan tells NBC this am that Russia is planning an "extremely violent"

[demmiblue]

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan tells NBC this am that Russia is planning an “extremely violent” invasion of Ukraine. US has “intelligence to suggest that there will be an even greater form of brutality” against Ukrainians, “to repress them, to crush them, to harm them.”

More Sullivan, this time on ABC: “All signs look like President Putin and the Russians are proceeding with a plan to execute a major military invasion of Ukraine. We have seen just in the last 24 hours further moves of Russian units to the border…getting in position to attack.”

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[Renew Deal]

1. Where is Europe in all this?

It looks like they are going to let it happen?

[2naSalit]

2. How would they stop it?

Honestly, what could they do to stop this? All this is taking place at the interface of Russia/Europe, a massive border. The whole of Europe would have to be militarized to match this offense on the ground.

It's getting ugly. The only answers I can imagine at the moment are socially unacceptable so I'll keep them to myself.

[NightWatcher]

3. Does ugly World v Soviet Union: Final Edition?

I hope we can avoid WW3.

[2naSalit]

5. Same here.

But it seems we are dealing with someone who has a mindset similar to a controlling and abusive ex-spouse who can't accept that the divorce is final.

[PatSeg]

25. Excellent analogy

"If I can't have you, I'll destroy you."

[uponit7771]

45. +1, Britain was same way with US before 1812 war

[Renew Deal]

7. Russia is counting on this sort of passivity.

[Irish_Dem]

8. Putin sees the West as greatly weakened.

He thinks there is nothing the West can do to stop him.

And he has weathered sanctions in the past, in fact some of them turned out to be favorable to the oligarchs.

[maxrandb]

10. Putin sees one major United States political party supporting him

That is what he sees.

Why would Retrumplicans care about Ukrainian sovereignty when they don't care about American sovereignty?

[Irish_Dem]

12. Yes it is the Putin GOP. Aligned to stop democracy, no matter what it takes.

[sir pball]

4. I'll answer them for you.

The US likely has the majority of their SSGNs on station in the Med - ready to fire literal hundreds of Tomahawk missiles at the drop of a hat.

We also probably have 2 out of our 3 Seawolf submarines, which are no question the most capable and deadly naval vessels ever constructed, in the Med watching the Bosporus. If things get hot and Pooty sends any ships out....boom. There is literally nothing in the Russian Navy that can counter those boats.

If this gets hot it'll be ugly, but if we use overwhelming force it will be over quick.

[Irish_Dem]

9. The Russians have their subs off the coast of the US.

So it is a standoff?

[sir pball]

39. Russian subs are not up to US subs.

Their quietest and most capable boats are still only on par with the original Los Angeles "688" class. Our current boats are almost infinitely more capable. If they have Boreis in range of CONUS, they're absolutely being shadowed and would be sunk on the spot if they opened their silo doors.

The undersea Cold War is one we never got behind in.

[Irish_Dem]

40. But how do we stop their missiles once launched?

Of course they know they would be sunk in minutes.
So would US subs if they launched against Russia.

So the US would start WWIII if a Russian sub just opens weapon doors?

I assume that if they were going to launch, the Russians would be traveling in pairs. Hard for one US sub to hit two subs at the same time?

US and Russian subs have been playing dangerous shadowing games for decades.

[sir pball]

41. Yes, a US sub would shoot a Russian sub "just" opening their silo doors.

That's not posturing, that's a decision to fire and a completely reasonable excuse to blow them out of the water. It would be an explicit declaration of WW3: the last step before launch is opening the doors and there's no other reason for it (submariners are free to correct me here). It is the literal equivalent of drawing a gun and putting your finger on the trigger.

Boomers do not "travel in pairs"; stealth is their only defense and a pair of subs is twice as easy to detect - and twice as easy to sink, you just need to shoot two intelligent homing torpedoes instead of one. It's not hard.

Oh, and US subs aren't shadowed by Russian subs, the Russkies aren't quiet enough. A Seawolf is as quiet at 25 knots as an Improved Los Angeles is tied up at a pier. We shadow them, they do not shadow us. It's one of the few Cold War areas we were unquestionably better at, and a large reason it stayed Cold.

[Irish_Dem]

43. Russian subs, the new ones are much better.

Last year the Pentagon released a statement talking about how the new Russian subs are much quieter.

The Pentagon is also concerned that Russian subs keep patrolling closer and closer to the US coast.

[sir pball]

47. I didn't say Russian subs were bad, we're just better

The Reds are around 688I sound levels these days, which is very good. World-class, even.

A modern American hunter-killer sub is as quiet running at 20 knots as the aforementioned 688I is tied up at pierside. We could have three SSNs tailing each Russian boomer and they'd never know. The GIUK gap is still patrolled.

[marie999]

19. The US can send weapons to Ukraine and sanction Russia. That is it.

Any US military involvement against Russia would probably cause a much bigger war and if it continues for more than a few weeks it will be the beginning of WWIII.

[sir pball]

42. Yep. Have you read Red Storm Rising?

If this gets hot, that's about what I expect.

[Buckeyeblue]

13. Russia has 75% of their military clustered together

Some well placed preemptive strikes could greatly hamper the Russian effort. And I get this is the response that Putin wants. But what if the preemptive response was more severe than Putin and his generals ever anticipated? What if it could be debilitating?

I'm against starting a fight. But if I think a fight is inevitable I want to throw the first punch.

I know nuclear weapons are the elephant in the room. But if Putin used them he would not survive.

[marie999]

20. No one would survive. Are you willing to take that chance? This has to be a European war.

One of the main reasons there has not been a WWIII is that the US and Russia have been having proxy wars for 60+ years instead of a head-to-head war.

[Samrob]

31. What happens in Ukraine will NOT stay in Ukraine. I guarantee you. nt

[Buckeyeblue]

32. I agree. I think this is the strategy Europe should take

I don't think he would go nuclear. That would be a sign of giving up. I think he would pull back and take every moment he could to complain about how poorly he and Russia were treated. He would try to use it as a way to rally support.

In the meantime Europe would be more united than ever.

[BComplex]

24. I'm with you 2naSalit.

But I will say that trump enabled this asshole with his trying to extort the president of Ukraine, and when he withheld $$ and support for so long.

[ruet]

30. Provide CAS and CAP along the Ukraine/Russia/Belarus Borders. -NT-

[sarisataka]

16. On Ukraine's western border

Hoping nothing spills over.

[SoonerPride]

17. Ukraine is not a NATO member, so yes they will just let it happen

[inwiththenew]

27. Sending payments to Moscow for the gas bill

Hoping it doesn't get cut off until winter is over.

[uponit7771]

44. +1

[Baitball Blogger]

6. Too bad we can't spread a net of drones on top of them, armed with

sleeping darts.

[Quixote1818]

28. Drones is one of the main things they have

[bluestarone]

11. My thoughts here

Probably ONLY thing to do is SOMEONE (secretly) supply the Ukraine with the WEAPONS that will even out this BULLSHIT!

[USALiberal]

14. Secretly? Really?? Please post how! Nt

[sarisataka]

15. What weapons does Ukraine need

To even this up? That have rasonably modern equipment

[bluestarone]

18. I have no idea what they have.

I DO hope they have LOTS of weapons!! I want Russia to suffer if they invade!

[marie999]

21. Tactical nuclear missiles which the US will not give them.

[sarisataka]

23. Nukes are like potato chips

You can't stop at one.

No, we won't give Ukraine nukes as we have no desireto see even a "limited" nuclear war. Nor will Russia use them as that would risk the US and NATO joining the fight.

[ruet]

35. Ukraines Problem is Numbers.

They have reasonably modern equipment, including an influx of C-RAM, MPADS and MPATS, but they don't have enough of it. ...especially air assets. They need EU support in the air. IMO, the UN should enact a no-fly zone and give the EU authority to enforce it.

[sarisataka]

36. Unfortunately if you recall

Russia sits on the Security Council and has veto power. The UN will take no action or pass any resolution over may happen.

[ruet]

37. Oh Yeah, I Know.

...perfect world and all that.

[Poiuyt]

34. Remember, Ukraine voluntarily dismantled their nuclear weapons at the

end of the cold war.

[Hotler]

22. But, do the Russian soldiers themselves have a stomach for mass killing? Do they hate

Ukrainian's the way repugs hate us Dems? The only good Ukrainian is a dead Ukrainian. How many Russian soldiers are there just for a paycheck?

[uponit7771]

46. +1, which is why I think it'll be contained to the annexed areas for now. Putin aint THAT stupid

[Wounded Bear]

26. Haven't heard from Ms Bertrand in a while, she always had good reports...nt

[Takket]

29. Can Ukraine stage any kind of first strike?

Launch some middles at the forces on their boarder to soften them up and send them into disarray? Sorry I don’t know if they even have that capability but at this point I don’t think it is unreasonable for them to strike first and try to weaken Russia before they roll in.

[sarisataka]

33. Ukraine has one missile battalion,

It could be to strike Russian command and control points. That would disrupt them for up to 48 hours, maybe. It would be best used as Russian forces cross the border.

It is very difficult to disrupt dug in troops. It takes a sustained effort of bombing and artillery to meaningfully reduce their combat effectiveness. Russia would see such an effort coming and take countermeasures. Also it would make Russia the aggrieved party, justifying an invasion.

It would require multiple nuclear weapons to disrupt Russian forces to the point an invasion is not feasible. Even then they could recover and attack later- and Kyiv would likely be a glowing, smoking crater.

[marie999]

38. I would think that Putin would love to have Ukraine attack Russia.