Just my opinion, If Putin wanted to take over all of Ukraine. He would have done it by now.

[fightforfreedom]

I still believe Putin wants to take another piece of Ukraine, destabilize Ukraine. Putin is evil, but he is not stupid. A full scale attack against Ukraine would not be in Putin's best interest. Of course I could be wrong.

Putin is playing politics. I hope he does not miscalculate, because things can spin out of control.

[Walleye]

1. Putin has already miscalculated. Joe is not Donald

We are once again shoulder to shoulder with our allies

[Irish_Dem]

2. He is enjoying tightening the screws.

He is showing off his power and brutality.

We simply do not know what his next move will be.

But he is certainly quite capable of taking over Ukraine.

[EndlessWire]

26. I think we do know.

He recognized those two breakaway states. He now has permission to "defend" them and establish a Russian military base or two.

He has conducted the misinformation phase, and is continuing to claim that Ukraine is doing the bombing.

He is setting the stage for alleged bombings and mayhem inside Russia, for the claim of aggression.

He is moving his troops and equipment toward the border, not away.

The Olympics are over. The training schedule is over.

It looks very bad. But, Putin is doing exactly what the experts said he would do. They told us, using a novel approach to the problem. Why he would do that is anyone's guess. Someone is pushing him in the wrong direction.

[Irish_Dem]

27. I agree with you if I had to guess.

Some say his generals are pushing him. But I didn't think Putin was so easily pushed.

I suspect China may be egging him on. They have a new alliance where they see themselves as the new world order superpowers.

China wants Putin to be successful in the Ukraine as it gives them the right to go into Taiwan.

[EndlessWire]

33. China is awfully upset

over the Quad alliance. We have to defend Taiwan by treaty (?), but we'll be lucky if we are not then defending Australia. And, didn't they have an encounter recently?

This is all very bad. Curses to Putin and Xi both.

[Irish_Dem]

38. Oh yes China sees them as a threat to their national security

and regional power.

Yes indeed, a Chinese warship shot a laser at an Australian Air Force jet which could have blinded the pilots. It was reckless and dangerous.

It was an Australian P-8A aircraft, reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare plane which was flying over the Arafura Sea, the body of water between Australia's Northern Territory and the island of New Guinea to the north.

China is angry that Canberra is going to buy some nuclear subs from the US. China also disputes territory in the South China sea.

If China would invade Taiwan, they could probably do it very quickly and it would be all over by the time the US got involved.

China intends to be a superpower and soon. They must have regional control as a step to that goal. So we are going to do the same thing as Putin is doing. Show the world who is boss.

Yes it is very bad, and we are looking at a possible very big power shift. Most people have not yet connected all the dots.
Trump/GOP/Putin/Xi.

[randr]

3. Just my opinion

In the end the military industrial complexes on both side are going to win big time. The cold war is dependent on threats, of which both sides take turns providing.

[EndlessWire]

34. Cold war?

How about a nice, glow-in-the-dark conflagration where no one survives in order to make new war toys?

Order up the Cold War, any day of the week.

[randr]

43. The Cold War is a very expensive and dehumanizing substitute

for peace and understanding. While it has averted the dive into mass insanity the alternative is so much more profitable.

[PortTack]

4. JMHO...his biggest miscalculation was the mood of the country and allies to defeat him

There are other reasons that make me a lot less hopeful

The Russians have been waiting for the ground to fully freeze so they can go cross country. That date this yr was 2/16
They have amassed huge field hospitals and an enormous blood bank. Worrisome

[bigtree]

5. it's actually a bid to destabilize the Ukraine government through intimidation of forces

...also looking for some provocation, or some provocation they can claim, to precipitate more military aggression and advances.

It's not a zero sum game, but it's not tiddlywinks either. Putin is using military aggression to control Ukraine. Whether they lob missiles into the country, or occupy territory, the aim is to force their influence on Ukraine by inches.

No one should be lulled by their reluctance to stage a massive, all-encompassing attack right now, as they array their forces to gain tactical advantage over Ukraine.

[Irish_Dem]

28. I agree, we cannot be lulled into thinking Putin is bluffing.

Putin is intimidating the West and Ukraine in an attempt to control. He can lower the hammer at any time.

[EndlessWire]

36. They have realized

that Kaliningrad is vulnerable, and they are busy reinforcing their military in that area.

We sent troops and equipment to Poland, just in case. Nothing would move from a NATO country, but if Putin starts up, Poland will be in it.

I think we should beef up Lithuania so both sides of Kaliningrad has that pressure not to attend the party that Putin may be planning.

[Buckeyeblue]

6. I agree. Having his troops in place just waiting is not that great for them

I think NATO should be more aggressive toward this threat. The Russians are out in the middle and exposed. A calculated attack could severely weaken the entire Rissian military.

Threats should have consequences.

[Buckeyeblue]

9. I'm not normally hawkish but I also don't like threats being held over me

At a certain point when diplomacy goes nowhere, you have to say, if you want this let's go.

[EndlessWire]

29. Isn't it strange how the thinking

turns around when you push people too far?

I was thinking yesterday that Putin has brought up 75% of his troops and lined them up at the border. He has sounded out NATO and they have convinced him that they will never fire against Russia because Ukraine is not NATO.

So, he continues on. But, we have all the satellite images of his tanks, trucks, and helicopters. A massive bombing run to eliminate all the hardware should do it. Then, let him try to walk into Kiev.

Really, it is an advantage to see them huddled together in clusters. Not really smart of Putin.

I'll bet the meetings on the 24th will not happen. But, if they do, I'll bet that Putin gets told to expect something really bad to happen, and it won't be just empty sanctions.

[Ghost Dog]

44. Then there would be nuclear war

and winter.

[sarisataka]

10. Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile To Baltic In Range Of NATO Capitals

Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile To Baltic In Range Of NATO Capitals

As U.S. paratroopers began arriving in Poland on Monday in response to Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine, a video posted on Telegram appears to depict the landing of a Russian MiG-31K Foxhound jet (or MiG-31I in recent Russian state media reports) carrying what looks like a Kinzhal hypersonic land-attack missile in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea bordering Poland and Lithuania.

The video seemingly can be geolocated to the Kaliningrad Chkalovsk naval airbase in the exclave.

Later, unconfirmed reports suggest as many as four or five Kinzhal-armed MiG-31s may have landed in Kaliningrad.

The Kinzhal (“Dagger”) missile—designated the Kh-47M2 and more recently the 9-A-76609 in Russian sources—has a reported range of 1,240 miles and can carry either an 1,100-pound fragmentation warhead or up to a 500-kiloton nuclear warhead with 33 times the yield of the Fat Man bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/02/08/russia-deploys-hypersonic-missile-to-baltic-in-range-of-nato-capitols/?sh=18556d99217e

Care to picture what even non-nuclear versions of these dropping on Berlin and Paris would be like?

[MOMFUDSKI]

14. If it were up to this woman

those bombs, etc. would have been deployed weeks ago. What is with men running things so half-assed? Isn't war WAR? All's fair and all that. Bring it. (I always tease my husband about boys get the rule book and play by it and girls are like WHAT RULEBOOK?) Just my two cents' worth.

[Buckeyeblue]

24. You're right!

[marie999]

20. If NATO attacks Russia, then Putin gets to say he was right.

He says that is proof that NATO expanded to the East to destroy Russia. It would give him the out to use what ever means necessary to take out Ukraine and the Baltic countries.

[Buckeyeblue]

25. I think what he is doing is an act of war.

Waiting for him to hurt civilians seems crazy.

[EndlessWire]

37. NATO is not going to attack

first. It's critically important that Putin be given the opportunities to withdraw and stand down. That's why sanctions would come after and not before, and why there are continued attempts at diplomacy. That's why Ukraine is not fighting back at this point.

But once Putin rolls his hardware and bombs Kiev, his ass might well be grass. These defensive contingencies are already well thought out and planned. NATO isn't just sitting there saying, What will we do now? They are not wringing their hands.

[Deminpenn]

21. Thought I heard Russia's ENTIRE military was amassed

around Ukraine. Of course they still have their nuclear armed subs and silos.

I also believe the US is capable of jamming all communications of such a concentrated force.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

23. Not the entire military but the majority is.

I've heard 70%.

Tactically I think that's a mistake. Not that we'll take advantage of it.

[The Revolution]

7. I doubt he wants a total takeover

Last edited Mon Feb 21, 2022, 03:46 PM - Edit history (1)

My best guess is the plan us to overrun the border regions, encircle Kyiv, and force Ukraine to sue for peace. The terms would basically be recognition of the loss of Crimea, plus recognition of the "independence" of Donbas or maybe most of the southeast (where the ethnic Russians are, along with the land route to Crimea; basically the lands Lenin granted to Ukraine). Maybe a pledge not to join NATO or become a neutral nation as well.

That "independent" area then likely "votes" to join the Russian federation, just like what happened in Crimea, or possibly remains a puppet state.

Optionally, they could try to install a puppet government over all of Ukraine, but that seems like a stupid idea

[maxsolomon]

17. This makes sense to me.

He can easily encircle Ukrainian forces on the eastern front.

Ukraine would be forced to accept loss of the territory east of the Dneiper it to remain nominally independent.

It's that start a bloody insurgency that destroys the nation.

[EndlessWire]

30. But

He already has Crimea and the two breakaways, plus parts of Georgia. He has made a list of those Ukranians he wants killed. He's after something bigger.

[The Revolution]

40. Yeah

If that is true about a kill list, that is troubling. I'm not sure what that means yet.

Yeah, as far as Crimea, etc. Russia does already control those areas. But if they can force Ukraine to recognize that officially, perhaps that removes the legal justification for sanctions since they wouldn't be occupying Ukraine anymore. Not sure if that would work or if they really even care though.

[EndlessWire]

42. I don't think that lying

by the US is in the cards right now. We don't have to, it is horrible enough. But, we sent a complaint to the UN regarding these lists. If we intercepted intelligence regarding that issue, then I believe it to be true. And, I don't see where we would lie about it. We would have to show the UN all about why we are saying that.

But, get it all in the record. Tell everybody. Make a case in world court for when we haul Vlad the Loser into court for punishment.

[Tommy Carcetti]

11. He probably wouldn't go so far as Western Ukraine. But other portions are very much at risk.

Ukrainian national sentiment is very high in that region, and the terrain is hilly and mountainous as opposed to the flatter steppes of Eastern Ukraine.

But he definitely plans on taking Donbas, may seek to landlock Ukraine by taking Maripol and Odesa, and may make a move on Kharkiv and the capital of Kyiv.

Right now there's been a lot of footage on the internet about a buildup in the Russian town of Shebekino, which is right on the Ukrainian border and very close to Kharkiv.

Putin may have wanted to do this all in 2014, but sanctions cripped his plan. So he played low with the proxy war in the East until he was ready to strike.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

12. Joe has Putin in a box.

By being so vocal as to letting NATO and the rest of the world know Putin's intentions, here is the problem Putin has...

1) Invade Ukraine with his massive forces and kill thousands of civilians and PROVE Joe Biden CORRECT and look like a FOOL.

or

2) Not invade Ukraine, retreat and PROVE Joe Biden correct and still look like a FOOL for all that macho posturing he likes to do.

Either scenario, Vladimir Putin ends up looking like a FOOL.

[ificandream]

45. Excellent points.

[anti stupid]

15. my take

is that Russia will invade part way then make consolatory offers to pull back just keep the Russian dominated areas. I must say there is a hypocrisy here. Imagine a country lying to the world in order to justify an invasion of another country. Not a bordering country, but one halfway around the world. Can you think of another similar situation?

[Talitha]

16. Why didn't he pull this stunt when his orange puppet was in office?

Wouldn't Dump have turned a blind eye?
I just don't get it... he could have done this long ago.

[Quixote1818]

19. Unless he thought Trump would get a second term

It's possible after Trump lost he saw the clock ticking.

[pecosbob]

35. They tried to deal a gas pipeline through Syria for Putin and nuclear tech for the Saudis

That sort of fell through with the Syrian civil war...

[iemanja]

18. He's already doing it

He's taking Dobras.

[roamer65]

22. At this point, IF he invades it will be the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea.

Any more than that would spell sure disaster for a conscript army.

[EndlessWire]

31. That doesn't get all the details.

He already has all that. They are pretexts for something else he has in mind.

[pecosbob]

32. Everything in red is what he wants

The area includes most ethnic Russians in Ukraine, the southern gas pipelines and as you pointed out the remaining Black Sea coastline controlled by Ukraine.

[roamer65]

39. +1000

[iemanja]

41. Ooops

Guess you were wrong on this one.