Ukraine: How We Got Here, What Putin Is Saying and Doing, and How the West Is Responding

[Nevilledog]

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Jay Kuo
@nycjayjay
There are a great deal of moving parts to the crisis in Ukraine. My piece today hopes to add some context to why Putin is moving first on Eastern Ukraine and what the West’s response and sanctions may lead.

statuskuo.substack.com
Ukraine: How We Got Here, What Putin Is Saying and Doing, and How the West Is Responding
The situation in Ukraine, which had been escalating for months as Russia built up a force of over 150,000 troops along its borders, is now rapidly deteriorating politically. Last night, Russian...
10:24 AM · Feb 22, 2022

https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/ukraine-how-we-got-here-what-putin?utm_source=url

The situation in Ukraine, which had been escalating for months as Russia built up a force of over 150,000 troops along its borders, is now rapidly deteriorating politically. Last night, Russian military forces were ordered into and seen entering the eastern part of the country in two breakaway regions. The EU and the US have announced sanctions to respond to that incursion, but the full range of sanctions available to them have not yet been deployed, despite some calls to label it an invasion and pull the trigger.

To understand what’s going on, we need to rewind a bit and see how we got here. We can then try to parse the reasons Russia is giving, however disingenuous, for its recent politically destabilizing moves and military aggression and how Ukraine and the West view them. Finally, we can explore what sanctions have already been announced by the West and what options remain on the table.

The Breakaway Regions in Eastern Ukraine

In 2014, after mass protests in Ukraine led to a pro-Moscow leader in Kyiv being deposed, Russia invaded and then annexed a part of Ukraine called Crimea. The move was roundly condemned as illegal by the U.S. and Europe. During the same period, the Kremlin began backing an armed rebellion in the Eastern part of Ukraine in two regions known as Donetsk and Luhansk, where ethnic Russian separatists wanted independence, seizing control of government buildings and territory and proclaiming two new “people’s republics.” More than 14,000 people have been killed in that conflict.

In 2015, Russian and Ukraine finally agreed to end the conflict under something called the Minsk agreement, which was brokered by Germany and France. Ukraine agreed to give the two regions special status and a great deal of autonomy, while Russia agreed to return control of the border to Ukraine.

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[SandWalker]

1. Backfire ?

This may backfire on Putin. More and more chat about Sweden and Finland joining the NATO alliance. I wonder if he factored that in ?

[C_U_L8R]

2. Ukraine could be fast-tracked for membership too, if they want it.

There is no good outcome for Trump or Russia with their ill-conceived aggression.

[former9thward]

5. That will never happen.

Ukraine first asked for NATO membership in 2005 and NATO said no. And they have said no ever since.

[C_U_L8R]

6. Yeah. Still I'd be nice to punk Putin and backfire his strategy.

[Hortensis]

3. Civilization fiirst came to Russia from Ukraine and farther south, and west.

Link to tweet

[moondust]

4. In that case

Putin has it backwards and Ukraine can claim Russia is part of Ukraine. Congratulations, Ukraine!

[Hortensis]

7. :) Lol, pretty sure Ukraine would rush to decline.

Russia's culture has always been extremely authoritarian and unfortunately is not ready for democracy. And Ukrainians probably are aware that their huge, backwards neighbor's real incomes have dropped something like 13% in less than a decade. Ukraine's been going the other direction...