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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUkraine lacks diplomatic 'trump card' after giving up its nuclear weapons nearly 30 years ago
With markets worried about a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, at least one scenario can be ruled out: use by Kyiv of nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip.
Back in 1994, Ukraine decided to give up those weapons, in exchange for the U.S., U.K. and Russia guaranteeing the countrys security. The agreement is known as the Budapest Memorandum. To put a finer point on it, Ukraine didnt have an independent arsenal, but agreed to remove what were former Soviet weapons on its territory, as one group explains.
But as a German Marshall Fund of the United States analysis points out, there has been handwringing over Ukraines decision to give up its weapons ever since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Many have been asking whether Ukraine would find itself in its current predicament if it had not done so, says the analysis, written by visiting fellow Jack Kelly. Nuclear weapons are often viewed as the trump card in international relations; a threat an enemy knows always looms over them.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-nukes-ukraine-lacks-diplomatic-trump-card-after-giving-up-its-nuclear-weapons-nearly-30-years-ago-11645549208
Bucky
(53,984 posts)It never would've been good, given their turbulent politics, to have a small, wobbly republic like Ukraine holding onto weapons like that. Even if they never got used, their costly technical maintenance and the relative risk of them being disassembled was a nightmare in the relatively peaceful 90s. Ukraine having nukes today would have probably just given Russia a better excuse for intervening.
Celerity
(43,240 posts)Despite the Threat it Faces, Ukraine Was Right to Give Up its Nuclear Weapons
by Jack Kelly
https://www.gmfus.org/news/despite-threat-it-faces-ukraine-was-right-give-its-nuclear-weapons
Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and even more so with its current military threat to the country, there has been much handwringing over Ukraines decision to give up its nuclear weapons in 1994. Many have been asking whether Ukraine would find itself in its current predicament if it had not done so. Nuclear weapons are often viewed as the trump card in international relations; a threat an enemy knows always looms over them. But without the proper infrastructure, they are as dangerous to their owner as they are to the enemy, and they create a target for those who wish to acquire these weapons. Given the regional instability surrounding the newly independent post-Soviet states in 1991 as well as Ukraines budgetary restrictions, lack of a structured military, and need to build global relationships, giving up its nuclear weapons in 1994 was the best decision to ensure that the country grew safely and created strategic partnerships.
The Soviet Nuclear Weapons Inheritance
On December 25, 1991, Mikhail Gorbachev delivered the ten-minute speech that would be his final address as president of the Soviet Unionand the last moments of the state itself. He announced the dissolution of the Soviet Union and moments later the red flag with the hammer and sickle was lowered over the Kremlin as the tricolor flag of the Russian Federation replaced it.
The peaceful transition from one state to another seemingly took place over a matter of minutes that December evening but in fact many events had led to this moment. In the last of thesefollowing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania securing their independence in Septemberthe leaders of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine met at a hunting cabin in the Belarusian forest on December 8 and agreed to dissolve the Soviet Union.
The 12 remaining Soviet republics overnight became independent countries. Due to this abrupt change, many plans and infrastructures of the Soviet Union were still in place as it had not planned to suddenly disappear. Most worryingly, its nuclear stockpile now belonged not only to Russia but also to Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine where they were spread. Belarus was left with over 100 nuclear weapons, Kazakhstan over 1,400, and Ukraine nearly 9,000 as well as 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles and 44 strategic bombers.
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EndlessWire
(6,477 posts)I was investigating this Budapest Memorandum because Ukraine has stated it is invoking that document's provisions. I so want someone to help them.
But, guess who it is that signed that document, which promised to protect Ukraine if they gave up their nukes? US, UK...and Russia...
It was said that the document had no legal provisions, and therefore no obligations. But, I think it is a basis for doing the right thing when someone agrees to give up something in exchange for protection. How betrayed must they feel now.
I read that the nukes were a real problem for Ukraine. They did not have launch codes, only the actual nukes, and managing those nukes was going to be more than they could handle. So, they gave them up in exchange for protection.
I am not a warmonger. My whole family has been to war. But, doggone it, if we don't stop Putin AT THIS POINT, he will set his sights on yet another country.
I am in favor of sanctions. But, I think he achieved his main objective yesterday. Now he will continue to nibble away at the coastline. I think that the sanctions won't mean much to him, and he wouldn't mind being like Kim, a fat pig who lets his people eat bark rather than live in a normal way. Putin, himself, won't feel it. He just has to keep his population in check.
Damn him all to hell and back.