Gallup breakdown of their poll likely voters-this explains a helleva lot

[graham4anything]

gallup dissects the demographics

note the white and the Hispanic breakdwon.
Gallup only added a mere 1% add-on
which has to be bull.
This explains their entire reason for getting it wrong.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

[img][/img]

[BlueCaliDem]

1. The overpolled the south and Republicans. Again. Sheesh. Gallup really

is working hard on making themselves lose all credibility as a pollster of note.

[regnaD kciN]

2. A 36-35 Republican advantage in LV...?

Has that ever happened in a presidential election?

[montanacowboy]

3. OMG

Look at the last section,

Down Democrat

Down Independent

UP Repuke

Down Dem/Lean Dem

UP Repuke/Lean Repuke

Shove it Gallup - you are so transparent

[think_critically]

4. The south

is where a lot of this comes from. Folks in the south, particularly whites, HATE Obama. When Romney did well in the debate
and he looked somewhat presidential it lit them up.

[CreekDog]

5. their demographics were wrong even in 2008, though they continue the problem in 2012

the white vote was 74% in 2008 (they said 78%) and for 2012, they are saying the white vote will still be 78% --that's laughable.

the Latino vote was 9% in 2008, they predict it's actually lower in 2012 than then.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

what a mess they've made of their likely screen.

[gabeana]

6. Underestimating the latino vote also

The number of registered Latinos has increased by 26% in the last four years to 12.2 million or 8.7% of all voters

Gallup only has it at 7 %

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/25/latino-vote-may-top-12-million-in-2012/

[gollygee]

7. They assume fewer women will vote this time than last?

that's a big assumption with how big a deal women's issues have been in this election.