The Guardian Analysis: advance forces' battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days

[kpete]

Analysis: advance forces’ battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreat

..........

Postings spotted by military analyst Rob Lee on Monday showed about 100 soldiers camped out – or rather lying down – at a train station about 20km from Ukraine’s border, without rations and having to buy food for themselves.

Russian troops based in Belarus, in forests near the town of Khoyniki, 50km from the Ukraine border, were described by one local a few days ago as people who “drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel”, suggesting a lack of discipline despite the heightened political tensions.

Western intelligence estimates that roughly a third of the overall Russian forces are now believed to be “tactically deployed” in frontline positions “poised for operations”. Their movements have been monitored closely using aerial and other reconnaissance for several weeks, as they edge closer to the border.

On Monday, one senior official said they believed it would only be possible for Russia to maintain them in their forward positions for “a matter of days” – a conclusion that is endorsed by independent experts.

MORE:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/harsh-conditions-mean-russian-troops-near-ukraine-will-need-to-be-moved-soon

[Beetwasher.]

1. Yup, Grift Trickles Down

Only the best.

[CanonRay]

2. I was wondering about their troops state of readiness

How long have they been out in the field, in Russian/Ukrainian winter conditions...a month or more? It must be tremendously expensive to keep troops in the field that long, and really hard on the soldiers and equipment. Think of those same areas contested in winter in WWII. It was and is brutal.

[ancianita]

31. A big number of Russian "troops" are mercenaries of the Wagner Group, probably paid for

by oligarchs/kleptocrats, harboring GRU operatives and international mercenaries, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group

This group is said to be a "myth" inside Russia, but PMC's have been a thing since Eisenhower warned us about the military industrial complex.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_military_contractors

So if these PMC's pull out due to sanctions and freezing of their corp accounts, Putin's definitely weakened.

[orangecrush]

42. The Russian version of Blackwater

:large

[ancianita]

44. Yep. Or a version of our CIA and military troops during our Afghan, Syria and Iraq forays,

one difference being that we don't hit up the southern border to annex Mexico, in order to 'save it from the OAS' on some pretext that there's an OAS surrounding of the U.S., and that there's some ancient relationship that our similar Aztecan ancestors might have shared.

[orangecrush]

50. True

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

45. The ones who got their asses kicked by our boys in Syria

[Scrivener7]

3. This really seems more and more like a colossal blunder by Vlad.

[JohnSJ]

4. They will be very formidable. They have a lot of hardware backing them up. I think the best that

can be hoped for at this stage to avoid an all out war is that Russia does not advance further outside the separatist areas

[radius777]

28. True, which is why the West has help train

the Ukrainians over the past 8 years and provide them with the type of weapons that could deter a full scale Russian invasion.

Ukraine, a nation of 41 million, are determined to fight and die for their country, hate Putin with a passion, will be well armed (by the West) to fight a guerrilla war that could make it very costly for Russia should they attempt to fully invade and occupy the country.

[PatSeg]

5. I hadn't thought of it from that perspective

It appears that this "invasion" was not very well planned if the troops don't even have food or discipline. A lot of bluster without much substance.

[KPN]

13. Can't they plunder and confiscate food, water, fuel?

[PatSeg]

19. We don't know what their orders are

It really seems rather unorganized.

[IthinkThereforeIAM]

27. In all seriousness, that is no doubt where all the drinking comes from...

... gifted, asking or threatening the locals for a bottle of vodka, vis a vis offering a cup of hot coffee or tea to a, "officer protecting your property".

And this in itself may be a form of propaganda, too. Actual food has to fit in here somewhere...

[Buckeyeblue]

6. Does Russia have the money for an effective military?

You have to provide food, water, shelter for the men/women executing the mission. That seems to be a missing piece for them. My guess is that Russia's military is just so so. But what keeps everyone from launching an offensive against them is the threat of nuclear weapons.

[groundloop]

8. It seems likely that Vlad and friends have pilfered much of their military budget

[Buckeyeblue]

14. Sounds like something Trump would have done

It seems more and more like we are all being held hostage by a eastern European banana republic.

I think the big concern should be who will be in charge of the nukes when Putin is removed from power?

[oldsoftie]

41. They're better than they were 20 yrs ago, but still not elite.

the problem with most "dictator run" countries militaries is that they don't trust the troops below a fairly high level officer. Western forces are trained to be self sufficient down to a squad. But forces like China & Russia don't WANT their troops to have the ability to make decisions on their own. Command and control; emphasis on CONTROL, has always been a bigger thing with them. Take that out and you have a much better chance against them

[Buckeyeblue]

46. That's interesting

It's almost like they want to make sure the military can't make the decision to turn on the leaders. Which I guess makes sense if you are a tyrant.

[oldsoftie]

51. Thats exactly what it is. They built a wall to keep people IN E Berlin. nt

[multigraincracker]

7. What a great time for other, unhappy

provinces to revolt.

[oldsoftie]

9. You cannot put such a number in place, on alert, indefinitely.

Russian forces are already mostly conscripts & not THAT well trained. Special forces, yes, but they don't make the bulk of this group.
On top of that, "troop comfort" has never been a concern of any communist government. these troops will grow restless if they keep sitting there in the cold with nothing to do

[fightforfreedom]

39. Yes, it will affect moral.

If they are not well fed, clothed, sitting, living in tents in the cold and rain, that will become a problem over the long term.

[crim son]

10. I have zero faith in any of this "expert" analysis.

Experts have a history of getting it badly wrong over and over and over again.

[Hortensis]

32. In this era we are in the remarkable position of having many [i]genuine[/i] experts

talking to us, up to and including those who've headed national and allied military forces and whose jobs have been to advise and take orders from heads of state. Amazing.

If they do "get it wrong over and over again," it would only illustrate the incredible complexity of predicting opponents' actions in very fluid situations, not incompetence. Most explain a number of possible outcomes depending on __, and mention just a couple of factors but keep it simple enough for national audiences to comprehend.

Reminds me of something one of them still around said, something to the effect that battle plans never outlast the first shot. But they know that going in.

[crim son]

38. Not going to deny the issues are complex. n/t

[Desert_Leslie]

11. Mud Season

Another thing -- when all that snow/ice melts, it will be "mud season." That will make an invasion very tough.

[CaptainTruth]

15. There were pics of Russian tanks stuck in the mud...

...a couple weeks ago, during an "exercise" near Ukraine. Of course speculation was they were testing the ground for an invasion. It didn't go well, I saw a bunch of tanks being dug out of the muck with construction equipment.

[Wednesdays]

29. Missiles and strike aircraft

don't have to worry about mud.

[jaxexpat]

34. Mud season is already in full swing. Ukraine temps today in the mid to upper 30's F.

[PortTack]

12. The guardian has not been the only one reporting this. I'm sure our intelligence on this is good

The track record so far has been spot on.

[Travel Hat]

16. also need to consider, covid19 spike in Russia right now

Covid 19 is spiking big time in Russia right now. Barely 50% of Russia is vaccinated.

[RainCaster]

18. Plus, Russia's vaccine is barely effective

Typical Russian technology. More hype than anything.

[Javaman]

17. does the russian army still issue vodka rations? nt

[Dial H For Hero]

21. To my knowledge, the only army that still issues alcohol as part of their standard ration is Italy.

I’ve actually tried Russian rations (foreign rations are a bit of a hobby of mine). On the whole, I give them a thumbs down.

The French make the best MRE style rations, hands down.

[Javaman]

23. somehow I'm not surprised that the French have the best MREs. but can they last for years? nt

[Dial H For Hero]

25. While their official expiration date is a couple of years after manufacture,

As long as they’ve been stored properly (cool and dry) I wouldn’t hesitate to eat them if they were five years old. Much more than that, and I begin to be reluctant.

[sarisataka]

37. Personal record is 12 years

But it was a cold weather type were everything was dehydrated.

[Dial H For Hero]

49. Dehydrated rations do last a lot longer.

There’s a YouTuber who goes by Steve1989MREinfo who reviews both modern and vintage rations. He’ll open up World War II rations and eat anything that’s still remotely edible.

The oldest thing I’ve ever seen him eat is a portion of a hardtack ration from the Civil War(!).

[calimary]

47. Good and most interesting info, Dial H!

I appreciate your perspective in this area (where I have precisely none).

That’s one of the things I like a lot about this place. People with all kinds of backgrounds and specialties and areas of expertise.

[Grokenstein]

20. Man, it's Sochi all over again.

(Sorry if you've seen me repost it elsewhere. I just have always loved it so much.)

[dchill]

22. I'd forgotten! TY!

[jmbar2]

24. Chef Jose Andres should open up a kitchen in Ukraine for defectors

The photos in this article are pitiful, and most of these young people are conscripts doing mandatory military service.

Ukraine should have covid/refugee camps ready for them with great food.

[Sherman A1]

26. Interesting, I had been thinking about just how long they can keep the spring coiled

before things start to unravel. It will still be an effective fighting force for awhile, but that degrades a bit everyday.

[Hekate]

30. That is a little ray of hope

[TeamProg]

33. Apparently PUTIN knows how to hire the 'all the best people" just like TFG. n/t

[UTUSN]

35. K&R

[sarisataka]

36. Degraded does not mean

Ineffective. Living in a "tactical position" sucks- a lot, but it is possible to do so for extended periods.

As for the anecdote about the troops at the train station recall how everyone was up in arms about "National Guard soldiers having to sleep on the floor". Consider also that trains go to train stations. Were these recently disembarked troops waiting to move towards the border.

[milestogo]

40. They can be defeated by providing an open bar.

[OMGWTF]

43. "An army marches on its stomach." -- Napoleon Bonapart

[calimary]

48. Yep.