Intrade And Nate Silver Significantly Upgrade Obama’s Odds For Victory - Examiner

[WillyT]

Intrade and Nate Silver significantly upgrade Obama’s odds for victory
October 26, 2012
By: Ryan Witt - Examiner

<snip>

As Election Day draws near millions of Americans are looking up the latest polls to see whether Mitt Romney or President Obama will win in November. In addition to the polls, two other projections have gained significant notoriety over the last year. One is a market called Intrade, and the other is projective model developed by statistician Nate Silver of The New York Times. Both of those predictive measurements have significantly upgraded President Obama’s odds for victory over the last 72 hours, likely in response to Obama’s improving poll numbers.

For those unfamiliar with Intrade, it is a trading market in which people to make predictions by buying stock in a particular event. For instance, someone can buy “stock” in the prediction that President Obama will win re-election vote count on November 6. Currently that “stock” for President Obama winning is selling a $6.29 a share. If the trader is right and the event happens they can sell each shares for $10. If the trader is wrong, and the event does not happen, their shares go down to $0. Shares can also be sold before the event happens for a profit or loss.

With the “Obama re-election stock” currently selling at $6.29, traders are essentially betting that Obama has a 62.9% chance of winning. That number is a significant upgrade from Obama from Wednesday morning, when Obama was trading at just $5.60. What this essentially means is that people who have actual money riding on the outcome increased Obama’s odds for victory by 10 percent.

<And...>

The second projection is much more complicated. Nate Silver has developed fame for a website called FiveThirtyEight.com which incorporates all the polling data, and more, in order to project elections. Silver’s model is much more complex than a simple average of the polls. Silver takes into account the demographics of each state, the direction of the economy, and he also weighs each pollster differently based on their past performance.

According to Silver’s November 6 forecast, President Obama currently has a 73.1% chance of winning the election. Over the last 72 hours Silver has increased Obama’s odds by over 5%. Two weeks ago, on October 12, Silver had President Obama’s odds down all the way to 61.1%.

So while many in the media are continuing with the narrative that Mitt Romney has the momentum, Obama is trending up with the people who are putting their wallets where the mouth is, and with the statistician who has made a name for himself in projecting elections

<snip>

More: http://www.examiner.com/article/intrade-and-nate-silver-significantly-upgrade-obama-s-odds-for-victory

[zellie]

1. Makes me very happy to hear....please let it be.

nt

[VenusRising]

2. Sounds great to me!!!!

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Sounds like they are trying to be diplomatic

without directly calling the shill lamestream media liars.

[reformist2]

4. Iowa Electronic Markets have Obama at 63%, fwiw.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_quotes.html

They also have a vote-share market. That is predicting a 52% O / 48% R split (ignoring other candidates).

[unblock]

5. "momentum" can't be based on an isolated event.

in this case, the entire right-wing media/rmoney campaign momentum meme was based off of obama's underwhelming first debate performance.

rmoney essentially got a one-time bump in the polls due to this. yeah, sure, the poll numbers increased over the course of several days, but this was not because of any "momentum", it was still all just the one-time bump from the debate, it just took some time to fully work itself into peoples' opinions and the polls.

momentum happens if there is a SERIES of good news for a campaign that CONTINUOUSLY improves its standing in the polls, and most notably, if there some REASON to believe that such good news might continue.

an example would be, say, if a vice-presidential debate had a strong showing for one ticket, and then the top of the ticket delivered a couple of round thumpings in two subsequent presidential debates. that's a SERIES of good news for a campaign, albeit not for the republican campaign, hence the media won't talk about momentum in this case.

ironically, the REASON for the democrats' strong showing in these debates is precisely the negative coverage and polling following the first debate. that essentially laid out a roadmap for how to succeed in the rest of the debates. the obama campaign then did the obvious thing and won three in a row. meanwhile the rmoney campaign couldn't adapt and stayed stuck in their web of lies even in the face of being called out on them.



plus, "down all the way to 61.1%"? ooh, scary! merely a heavy favorite at worst! throughout all this, rmoney couldn't crack 40%. that's not a horse race, that's just pathetic.

[leftynyc]

6. I hope everyone here reads this

They'll sleep better.

[truebrit71]

7. I'll sleep better after Obama is re-elected....

...taking back the House would make that sleep even more fitful!!

[leftynyc]

12. LOL - I hear ya

I'm telling my sleep deprived brain "just another 10 days or so". I've made zero plans for the weekend after the election...I'm either going to sleep heavily or drink heavily.

[CaliGal]

15. You and me BOTH!!! n/t

[ErikJ]

8. 7-11 cups: Obama 125 / Romney 45

Thats what the clerk told me it was for that store last Saturday.
Their nationwide is Obama 59%/ Romney 41%.

http://www.7-eleven.com/7-election/?gclid=CO399N2tn7MCFcaDQgodGywAgA

[Bette Noir]

9. Romney's big surge in the polls almost brought him up to even.

Mr. President has been ahead the whole time. He's going to win. The question is only about the margin.

(No, don't accuse me of being complacent. I voted last week.)

[JDPriestly]

10. IMHO gambling on the outcomes of elections should be illegal,

and penalties should be enforced. This is outrageous. It tempts people to cheat in elections. People could easily be paid to throw an election. This needs to be investigated.

Sorry to be a spoilsport, but this is on the same level as employers threatening their employees about voting for one candidate or another.

You are not supposed to tempt people to want to buy elections. The corporate corruption is bad enough as it is. Let's don't add more.

[Spike89]

11. Emotionally, I agree, but it doesn't hold up

It is not on a par with intimidating your employees. Furthermore, the very process of voting is a gamble--you are wagering that the politician you choose will be a better choice than the one you don't choose. Campaign donations are an even more obvious form of wagering. Many corporations/organizations hedge their bets, supporting both parties with contributions even if they may spend a bit more on one side or the other. Even the political parties themselves gamble--they look at the polls to decide odds and make calculated risk/reward decisions on whether to send resources and money to various candidates.

Billions of dollars are being wagered already on elections. At least intrade is being honest about what it is doing.

[cemaphonic]

14. It already is illegal

But it's out of US jurisdiction, and our allies would probably take it amiss if we invaded Ireland over their lax gambling laws. US citizens can't participate on Intrade without being willing to jump through a bunch of hoops to fund their account, and risk running afoul of a number of legal and tax consequences.

Considering how much money is spent of political campaigns already, I doubt there is enough money churning around on Intrade to even come close to tempting any candidate to throw a race.

[AzDar]

13. Hubby had the CBS morning show on this morning...I was apoplectic.

Their distortions are unbelievable.

[Redford]

16. Isn't it illegal in the US?

The reason I ask is that the people voting for Obama on intrade are probably not Americans. These polls have me jittery.

[hifiguy]

17. Silver is the only prediction guru

that is worth paying attention to. He crunches all the numbers and focuses on the state polls, which are the only ones that count.

[WillyT]

18. Exactly !!!

[nadinbrzezinski]

20. Yup, I look at Gallup for shits and giggles

but as he has noted, it has been an outlier.

I suspect they really need to look at their methodology.

I got another App that looks at state polls, NOW THAT IS FASCINATING.

Gallup, is just fun.

[Gabi Hayes]

23. link 2 app, pls?

thankee!

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Elections free

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ayzwah.electionsfree&hl=en

Gallup

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143174/1gallup-application-android.aspx

[WillyT]

19. Evening Kick !!!

[WillyT]

21. Last Kick For Tonight...

[kentuck]

22. kick