This is it. Kiev under siege. This weekend will decide it.

[WarGamer]

According to news reports, the Russians have fought their way into Kiev, closing a pincer movement to the north of the city.

The Ukrainians are fighting back FEROCIOUSLY and HEROICALLY, ironically kinda' like the Russians at Stalingrad.

Hey Vlad, crack open a book and read about the Germans and Stalingrad!

PS the defenders won.



But anyways... I digress.

This thing is going to be "over" one way or another this weekend.

If the Russians are driven out, they're done.

If the Ukrainians are killed and captured, beaten into submission they're done, other than guerilla resistance across the country.

But this is it. 72 hrs.

The harder the grind... the better the chances are the Russians high tail and leave.

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=FUWe7FsqZOc5MItAJ4zd9w

[lagomorph777]

1. I'm thinking more like three years than three days.

But I'm a pessimist by nature.

Ultimately, Putrid will regret this crime.

[WarGamer]

2. If the Russians take Kiev...

They will set up a puppet gov't.

[lagomorph777]

3. Yup. And look what happened to Putrid's previous puppet in Ukraine.

He had to flee for his life.

I think Ukrainians will be less kind to the next puppet.

[WarGamer]

7. It's all a big mess. I'd like to wake up tomorrow and have it all be a dream.

When I was a kid, LOVED WAR. Had tank books, airplane books... thought it was the coolest thing ever.

But the more you study it, the more you realize how utterly futile it is...

Ok, I mean there HAVE been wars that have SAVED cultures and societies... BUT a lot of wars were just dick measuring contests.

The study of war is replete with heroes and heroic actions but in totality, they're terrible things.

Over the last couple decades I've become somewhat of a misanthrope. The cruelty, brutality and unfairness of man is a downer.

[OnDoutside]

4. They'll need to control the whole country though.

[TheRealNorth]

5. The Russians defending Stalingrad had one advantage...

the Germans never truly isolated it - the Russians had the ability to ferry in more men and supplies across the Volga as the Russians still held the east Bank. The Russians also had all their artillery on the east bank that only had to contend with air attacks and counter-battery fire.

Even at the sieges of Sevastapol and Leningrad in WW2, the Russians had some capability to bring in supplies and re-enforcements.


Presuming that the Russians have fully encircled Kyiv, the situation would be more akin to Fallujah.

[WarGamer]

8. I think the Russians are only in the North today at least...

They had two battle groups on either side of the Dnieper and closed the pincer on the North of the city

[fishwax]

9. I think if the Russians are beaten out they're done, but if they take Kyiv it's only the start

Obviously taking Kyiv would be a major victory and they would try to set up a puppet government, but I think holding it would be a tall order, given their resources and what appears to be an intense resistance. If the Ukranians put up a big fight it could build momentum and inspiration for resistance movements even if the capital city falls. It seems pretty unlikely that Putin will have either the inclination nor the resources to compensate Ukrainians for the change in lifestyle, so I don't expect resistance to go away.

[RussBLib]

10. which entity, if any, could send in some planes

to help the Ukrainians with some air cover?? The EU? Probably not NATO. Not likely the U.S. either.

Must we just stand by and watch them be slaughtered? Because of a treaty?

[bottrott]

11. Kyiv is not the end of the war

Putin can set up a puppet govt but without tens thousands of occupying troops loyal to the new regime they can't effectively control jack shit. Russia cannot sustain the sanctions, cannot guarantee sufficient supplies to an already reportedly demoralized army and cannot resurrect the Ukrainian economic engine without folks willing to subject themselves to the whims of an autocratic dictator. As this grinds on, Putin will order increasing levels of atrocities that will test even China's willingness to look the other way. NATO wasn't supplying an insurrection last time but we sure as hell are now.