Putin supposedly furious that the war is not going better...report on Twitter, fwiw....

[steve2470]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497537193346220038.html

THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days. @EPPGroup @general_ben @edwardlucas @politico

lots of Russian text


2/7 Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

3/7 The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

4/7 If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.

5/7 Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.

6/7 Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.

7/7 The Ukrainians must avoid panic! The missile strikes are for intimidation, the Russians fire them at random to “accidentally” hit residential buildings to make the attack look larger than it really is. Ukraine must stay strong and we must provide assistance! #StandWithUkraine

8/7 Spread this information so the world would realise how important it is to assist Ukraine right now and without hesitation! It is difficult for Russia, but it is difficult for Ukraine as well if the West does not provide meaningul support! @EPPGroup @MFAestonia @MoD_Estonia

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[eShirl]

1. He hasn't yet felt most of the hurt that's coming his way.

deservedly so

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. NATO is on his doorstep. Hear that Sweden and Finland?

You could be next! Moldova, Romania, and Poland as well as those Ukrainians flee to safety.

[TheBlackAdder]

26. Russia had been practicing within the Finnish borders and seizing their islands for a possible war.

[blue-wave]

3. Oh I'm sure Pooty is having fits

Wait until he's cut off from the Swift system. He'll be so angry, he will pop blood vessels.

[Historic NY]

4. Seize all the oligarchs assets in foreign countries,

make them be used for reparations to the Ukrainian government and people . They can stop Putin, but they are married to the money and him.

[dalton99a]

9. +1

[calimary]

35. And another +1...

Million.

[Hav]

5. Some of the points make sense (5-7),

the others seem more like wishful thinking.
And what would a Ukrainian officer know about such a meeting?

[steve2470]

8. yes, that was my question too, how would the UKR know this ? nt

[MaryMagdaline]

13. I too think a lot of this is wishful thinking

However, the family ties between Russians and Ukrainians are so close, that spying is between and among family members. The Russians were not thoroughly primed for war and are probably mouthing off a little more than usual in their confusion.

[Eyeball_Kid]

22. The level of confidence that this "intelligence" is likely lower than we'd like. But...

we can surmise that there are some long-term behind-the-scenes alliances among military officers in both Russia and UKR. One of the great known factors in all of warfare is the inability of the elites to keep secrets. Leaks are part of warfare, as is propaganda.

[Scrivener7]

11. #5 is pretty chilling.

[Hortensis]

28. Sounds plagiarized from WWII propaganda. "Lair in the Urals"?

I've heard that Putin's inner circle is extremely small so it doesn't leak, and that he's purged all the oligarchs who were once powerful enough to challenge him, leaving ones who support what he wants to do.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

6. Pooty Poot poops his pants.

[ck4829]

7. This is why I have some doubts about the "They're sending in inexperienced forces first"

When he could need BOTH.

The first forces going in would be the force doing the legwork, doing the occupying, what-have-you.

Then he would send in special forces, not to fight Ukrainian soldiers, but to assassinate government leaders, military commanders, academics and intellectuals, journalists, NGO people, inconvenient citizens, etc.

Can't do #2 without #1.

[SergeStorms]

10. I love to read these stories, but......

there's so much disinformation on "social media " from both sides right now, I'm taking everything with a grain of salt.

One thing we can be sure of, Ukraine 🇺🇦 has not fallen to the evil empire yet. Yet. And I really, really hope they keep Vlad's invading hoard from achieving their objective.

[bucolic_frolic]

12. I wanna believe but it is wartime

How did Ukrainian officer come into this intel? World's richest man can't come up with $20B a day? They are that thinly supplied?

Like I say, I wanna believe. I do believe we are down a path where unconditional surrender is the only satisfactory outcome. Could be soon, could be 5-10 years. But we are there. The world is putting a chokehold on Pootie's ability to operate. His economy, military, citizenry will feel it. I think governments saw this coming. UKR sure got some supplies fast - like millions of assault rifles and Stinger missiles. Not things you get on 3-5 days' notice. The rest of eastern Europe NATO should be petrified. This is where the world left off in 1946 - Cold War was a truce of many decades, and it's the same game - free elections vs. dictatorship, just substitute communist henchmen for oligarchic circles.

Let's see how this develops. But I don't believe a negotiated peace is possible. Putin has shown us his hand, and that won't change no matter how much you tie him down.

[Eyeball_Kid]

17. I don't think that NATO countries have reason to be petrified. Not even Finland and Sweden,

both of whom do not have illusions about Russia's desire for expansion.

Finland and Sweden have strong strategic and traditional ties with the West. They would receive assistance quickly if they needed it. They may not.

I suspect that Putin is showing his nuclear card as a bluff, as an intimidation factor. He can take his bullying only so far, and it shows that Putin can't muster the military strength to fight off NATO using conventional weapons and tactics. When he threatens with nukes, we can be assured that he's really frightened that he may indeed LOSE this war.

The UKR "officer" had at least one thing right: the enormous cost of the war will drain them, especially when they can't get raw materials for manufacturing more weapons. The oligarchs-- and Putin-- don't want to give up their billions for the war effort. They are NOT Russian patriots who would impoverish themselves to contribute to the war effort. This is NOT a defensive war. So the state treasury, with no ability to borrow more money for war making, will run out of cash. Modern mechanized weapons, like tanks, run on microchips. Without them, tanks become farmland ornaments. And microchip manufacturing and raw materials comes partially from outside Russia. Sanctions means that they can't equip their weaponry and their inventory is diminishing with no promise of re-stocking.

Supply lines WILL become susceptible to sabotage since Russia's blitzkrieg will never materialize, and supplies are likely running out. Occupation forces are hated. There will be no end to counterinsurgency attacks. My guess is that, already, Russian morale is tanking. Soldiers are getting news that the Russian citizenry is rebelling with anti-Putin demonstrations. They are despised at home and in Ukraine.

Without the West's opposition, and especially without the US/NATO strengthening alliances (since Trump's loss), Putin's adventure into Ukraine WOULD be a blitzkrieg and a much easier takeover.

No matter what happens to Zelenskyy, he will be forever revered as the UKR president-patriot who fought-- really fought-- beside his countrymen and women to save his country. If he and Ukraine survive the Russian invasion and Ukraine remains sovereign, he has the reasonable potential of becoming a world leader. Do not underestimate his actions at this moment.

[calimary]

34. MOST interesting.

[Happy Hoosier]

14. I'd take that report with a giant grain of salt...

But Putin cannot be pleased. His vaunted military is not doing terribly well. And the world has turned against him.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

21. His "vaunted military" was only vaunted in his little rat brain,

his "vaunted military" would be destroyed by US/NATO forces, remember, the US and NATO have professional soldiers/sailors/Marines and Air Forces whereas the Russian Army consists of draftees who are only required to server for one year, hardly time to become proficient with military life.

Also, the Russian Army is wholly lacking combat experience, as evidenced in Ukraine, whereas the US and many other western countries have extensive combat experience.

[honest.abe]

15. This is great except the more angry this lunatic gets..

the more likely he will do something extreme.

[gab13by13]

16. Like a massive cyber attack on the US,

If Putler shuts down our electric grid do we respond with cyber attacks or do we send troops into Ukraine, or both?

[steve2470]

20. my understanding is, a very severe cyber-attack on the USA can trigger NATO article 5

My understanding also is, triggering Article 5 gives the USA and NATO the reason to go into Ukraine.

[Eyeball_Kid]

24. IMO, yes on 1, no on 2.

Article 5 pertains to co-signers in NATO. Ukraine isn't a co-signer. However, any Russian incursions into ANY NATO boundary triggers Article 5.

[honest.abe]

23. Yeah, good question.

I would say not send troops but send massive military aid and perhaps offer air cover.

[BlueWavePsych]

18. Riho Terras is a good source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riho_Terras

[deaniac21]

19. Today or tomorrow

It will be over.

[Fullduplexxx]

25. So about 2weeks until Chinese weapons start showing up in the field

[Kaleva]

27. There's a reason few nations buy Chinese weapons

[calimary]

29. Is it possible that Putin has met his own Waterloo?

[Roc2020]

30. It's possible. But Putin won't admit that

I hope I'm wrong but Either Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine. Or he starts a nuclear War. I think he is that Evil.

[calimary]

33. Unless some in his inner circle ease him away from "the button."

[tclambert]

31. Putin knows his life is on the line, too.

He made it okay to murder your opponents in Russia. Any of those oligarchs or generals may realize Putin has become a liability for them, and pull a Putin on Putin. That's why he wants to keep a close eye on them.

[paleotn]

32. 2/7 Exactly. All the shinny, techie stuff.....

that fuels modern warfare is incredibly complex and takes lots of time and money to produce. Most nations use it up factors of ten faster than you can make or pay for it. And it is mindbogglingly expensive. The US has the budget, resources, capacity and stockpiles to maintain that kind of warfare. Russia does not. In short, they've got to use what they've already got from start to finish. When that runs low, their tech drops by several decades, drastically reducing their combat power. Sauce for the Russian goose the Ukrainians would think. The odds will be tactically more even.