One thing I have learned over the years. Neither side knows how this will unfold

[Quixote1818]

over the next few weeks, months and years. Iraq, Afghanistan etc. should have taught us this. There were some on DU saying Putin was going to walk away with this a couple of days ago. They seem a bit more quiet now. But I also don't think we should be too optimistic. I see news sites suggesting Russia is still pretty much in control and others saying just the opposite. I take all of it with a grain of salt at this point. I will say that I don't think this is going as well for Putin as he expected it to at this point and that is encouraging. It's also encouraging how the Ukrainian leadership has stood their ground and it does look like the Ukrainian people are going to put up a hell of a fight. The world response and Russian people protesting is also encouraging. If I had to guess at this point, I think Putin is certainly going to be in a weaker position after all is said and done and I think Ukraine is going to turn into a swamp for Russia. Right now it doesn't feel like it was a good decision.

[Wingus Dingus]

1. Who would ever trust Russia again? They squandered

almost three decades of (admittedly shaky/uneven) goodwill and progress in relations with the rest of the world. I can't see how they walk away from this better off, assuming they conquer Ukraine. The damage is already done.

[marie999]

6. It's not so much a matter of trust as it is what can a country do for yours.

China is very interested in certain things that Russia can deliver. If Russia can make deals with China like the 30-year gas deal they now have. A larger pipeline should be finished in a couple of years. There is also lumber and rare earth minerals. China is first in rare earth minerals but Russia is fourth. Also weapons like the S-400 air defense system. And in a bind, Russia has a lot of land in the East China would love. Maybe even some tactical nuclear weapons. In a way, countries are like cats. You can have a cat for 5 years, but if it roams around and a neighbor feeds it better than you do, so long cat. This is, of course, my very pessimistic view of humanity in general.

[AlexSFCA]

2. there is no question that one of putin's objectives to split nato failed

he really underestimated western intelligence that consistently and preemptively have been releasing reports of what to expect rendering putins propaganda machine largerly ineffective. He worked so hard on getting favored by Hungary, et. al. and it’s all come crashing down on him. He strengthened nato to the highest level in history.

[Quixote1818]

3. There has been a lot of talk of groupthink inside Putin's inner circle

I must say that communications courses on things like groupthink should be mandatory for anyone running for office in the US. A huge number of bad political decisions over the years were because of groupthink. I had a communications class on groupthink in college and our group ended up doing some ourselves and made some horrible decisions. To this day the experiential learning from that class has been one of the most important lessons I received in college. If I were President of any country, I would surround myself with all kinds of people and opinions and have a designated person to act as a devil's' advocate to bring up possibilities the group might not think of.


25 Most Famous Groupthink Examples in History and Pop Culture

https://brandongaille.com/most-famous-groupthink-examples-in-history-and-pop-culture/


What is groupthink. Irving Janis's 8 symptoms of groupthink

https://www.indabaglobal.com/symptoms-of-groupthink/

[crickets]

4. Interesting. Thanks for the links. nt

[Wounded Bear]

5. War is kind of like that...

most wars lead to places and outcomes that the people who started them didn't predict.