Russia Stands Alone

[NowISeetheLight]

As long as the EU countries (and the rest of the world) condemn them and hold the line Russia will fail. Sure they can veto UN Security Council resolutions but in reality they’re in their own. Unlike Hitler who found allies in Italy and Japan I can’t see anyone publicly supporting him. Sure some countries may abstain in UN votes but I can’t see anyone actually actually voting in favor of this invasion.

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/25/1083252456/russia-vetoes-un-security-council-resolution-that-denounces-its-invasion-of-ukra

Russia’s stock market already crashed 50% after the invasion. Now with removal from SWIFT and other sanctions they’re in for a hard time. While the Russian citizenry may buy the government line for a while “It’s the economy stupid” will eventually get Putin.

[Mme. Defarge]

1. From what I have read,

many Russian citizens are risking their personal safety because they are most assuredly not buying it.

[MOMFUDSKI]

2. When putin's oligarch buddies start to feel the fire,

putin will find himself with enemies that he will be unable to defend himself from. The bad guys will take out the bad guy. We just need some time for this to unfold.

[relayerbob]

4. Absolutely. His days are numbered

A dictator is only as powerful as the guy holding the guns for him. He decides to not hold them or tutrn them around and it's over. Russia is not well known for having peaceful transfer of power. I posted this one on that very point

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216394990

[former9thward]

17. Since 1917 when has there been a violent transfer of power?

1917 was over a century ago.

[relayerbob]

19. Read about Beria

Overtly violent, no. Peaceful, not so much.

[former9thward]

20. There was no violent transfer of power involving Beria.

That was my question. Of course there have been violent people.

[LisaL]

22. Well, Beria was stripped from power, arrested and executed.

I would say that's violent.

"With Stalin gone, Beria quickly came to an understanding with Georgi Malenkov, an old ally, and was given the combined ministries of State Security and Internal Affairs, which put him in control of both the secret and the regular police as well as a small private army of infantry divisions. He now improbably began to urge an easing of Stalinism that went further than his colleagues were ready for. Many of them feared him almost as much as they had feared Stalin himself and a lethal plot was hatched against him."

https://www.historytoday.com/archive/months-past/lavrenti-beria-executed

[former9thward]

23. No credible history of Russia says or implies there was a violent transfer of power after Stalin.

If you want to have your own, go for it. Stalin had millions executed. Nobody says that was some violent power transfer.

[relayerbob]

24. Exactly as LisaL said, Beria was removed and executed ....

First of all, I said " Russia is not well known for having peaceful transfer of power." not that there were necessarily overtly violent transitions.

Nevertheless, Beria was overthrown in a coup led by Khrushchev in June 1953 and executed in Dec 1953. Then Stalin was vilified by Khrushchev (ad later rehabilitated to a degree by Brezhnev).

Khrushchev was removed in a bloodless coup by Brezhnev. Brezhnev was an authoritarian who crushed his opposition within the party, who then built a cult of personality that ensured his reign, but who was later basically completely incapacitated and held up as a figurehead when he was no longer able to function. He was followed by a couple of old hands who rapidly died (not violently, but certainly not any sort of controlled handover of power) over the span of just a few years. Gorbachev finally gained control and later vilified Brezhnev as neo-Stalinist.

Gorbachev then had a failed coup attempt against him in his final period in office, saved mostly by Yeltsin, who then assumed control, abolished the Communist party and dissolved the Soviet Union without informing Gorbachev.

Yeltsin maintained power until 1999, when he was pressured into resigning and handed over the power to Putin, who then screwed with the Russian constitution to ultimately become President for life.

And really Lenin appeared to want Trotsky to succeed him, not Stalin, and Stalin ultimately had Trotsky murdered. So, pretty much, none of the leaders from the 1917 revolution on had anything close to what we in the west would consider a peaceful, normal transition of power.

[former9thward]

25. Four U.S. presidents have been assassinated.

Serious attempts on many others. I guess with your logic we have had our own issues. I don't accept that view of history.

[relayerbob]

26. We do have our own issues, but we've 45 Presidents

And nearly all were peaceful. In no cases was the assessination of our leader performed by the leader of an opposition party who then assumed control.

And thanks, I'll stick with the REAL history of the world not your fantastical one.

[former9thward]

27. Opposition party is it?

Everything you cited was inter Communist Party fights. There was no opposition party.

[relayerbob]

28. You're pretty dense

I get that you can't admit you're wrong, so I think I'll just let this go. Arrogance and ego really doesn't suit good DUers.

[NowISeetheLight]

10. I agree

Even Putin has overlords who allow him to keep power while their wealth is enhanced. When that changes I believe they will turn on him.

[uponit7771]

3. Putler has Xi ... for now

[relayerbob]

5. TWo of the largest government controlled Chinese banks are stopping their dealings

with Putin. They aren't calling them sanctions, just "too much risk". But you know that passed by Xi. He has way too much to lose by supporting Putin, Russia's economy is half of California's, and in China money talks and bullshit walks.

[uponit7771]

7. That's BIG, do you have a link or search string I can use? I couldn't find a story on it. tia

[sir pball]

9. Here ya go; it's just two banks but they're state-owned so it's official.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/25/cracks-emerge-beijing-moscow-two-chinese-banks-restrict-lending/

[uponit7771]

11. It's a step, China can use Putlers swift system for oil. I... I just don't think Xi is going to try

... this with Taiwan or HK.

What does he gain, Putler is bat shit ... Xi seems stable

[relayerbob]

14. Thanks

[crickets]

18. That's huge. Thanks, sir pball.

I hope you don't mind I added non paywall links for both articles.

Bloomberg: https://archive.ph/4PieT
Telegraph: https://archive.fo/M4sGV

[sir pball]

21. Of course not, my adblocker makes paywalls obscure sometimes. nt

[NowISeetheLight]

12. While China is a long term threat...

They are as dependent on the US economy as we are on their cheap production. I don’t see them going after Taiwan and I don’t see them supporting Putin. They realize the money flows from the dollar and in the end they’re stuck with it.

[relayerbob]

13. Yep

[VMA131Marine]

6. Xi is calculating...

what the global response will be to China invading Taiwan. That and the Russian government may become a lot less supportive.

[uponit7771]

8. We better have a plan for Taiwan, Xi would be REALLY stupid to do this. Who in the hell is telling

... these guys to jump right now.

Bet its a buncha MAGA muthafuckas

[NowISeetheLight]

15. Right wingers

Are the ones on FB & Twitter who keep claiming Xi will take Taiwan due to America looking weak due to Biden. They want it to happen.

[relayerbob]

16. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be much more difficult

Not only the seaborne nature of it, but Taiwan is far better armed and trained than Ukraine. The Chinese advantage would be that Taiwan is far from resupply lines, so their ammo will only last so long. However, it’s not as likely the US would stay on the sidelines. However, the economic impact to China would be absolutely shocking to them, Russia’s economy is so much smaller and so much more controlled than China.