Scale and rapidity of geopolitical shifts have been astonishing

[L. Coyote]

THREAD:

Link to tweet

The world’s major economies, save China, have combined to foment a financial crisis in Russia, casting aside the previous worries about systemic economic risk. That, in turn, may provoke domestic unrest with unknown implications. (2)

Germany has moved from a pacifist laggard on defense spending to announcing a huge increase, moving ahead of 2% of GDP. “We must put a stop to warmongers like Putin,” the new Chancellor says. “That requires strength of our own.” A new Germany. (3)

Finland and Sweden are firmly aligned with the West and against Moscow, and the invasion may tip them into NATO membership. (4)

Neutral Switzerland – Switzerland! – will freeze Russian assets as a result of Moscow’s aggression. Full neutrality has become untenable given popular revulsion at the invasion. (5)

The sanctions response has been global, with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and more joining the anti-aggression bloc. Economic and geopolitical implications stretch well beyond Europe. (6)

China is badly exposed, having trumpeted a “no limits” friendship with Russia. It is openly siding not with the numerous wealthy, powerful, and unified countries opposing Moscow’s aggression, but rather with a reckless country that is being isolated and impoverished. (7)

The European Union, which for two decades has talked about taking on a military role, with very little to show for it, is suddenly providing EU-funded fighter jets to Ukraine. Crossing a Rubicon. (8)

The world is disconnecting Russia from globalization’s benefits: trade, travel, finance, technology, & drawing a curtain around the country. The result will be a poorer, more isolated & weaker Russia. A bet on diminishing Russian capability rather than changing its behavior. (9)

All this and more over a long weekend. We don’t know how this war ends, other than in tragedy for all those caught in its grasp. But already some geopolitical outlines are coming into focus. There will be more to come. END

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[lagomorph777]

1. Putin has just re-invigorated and expanded NATO, though he may not yet understand this.

[liberalla]

2. Yes we are! Love that image.

[hippywife]

3. China is also in to an extent.

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100216404525

At least two of China’s largest state-owned banks are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities, underscoring the limits of Beijing’s pledge to maintain economic ties with one of its most important strategic partners in the face of sanctions by the U.S. and its allies.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.’s offshore units stopped issuing U.S. dollar-denominated letters of credit for purchases of physical Russian commodities ready for export, two people familiar with the matter said. Yuan-denominated letters of credit are still available for some clients, subject to approvals from senior executives, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.

The move followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered a wave of sanctions from countries including the U.S., the U.K. and Japan and stoked speculation that more may follow. Because commodity-linked letters of credit are issued so frequently, they would be among the first transactions impacted by the threat of sanctions.

Bank of China Ltd. has also curbed financing for Russian commodities based on its own risk assessment, another person said. The lender has yet to receive explicit guidance on Russia from Chinese regulators, two people said.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities