The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-invasion-putin-is-ruling-alone.html

The belief that Vladimir Putin was bluffing, that he would never give the order for the nearly 200,000-man army he had spent months amassing on the borders of Ukraine to invade, persisted as late as 5:45 a.m. Moscow time the day of the attack, when, grimacing in a red tie, Russia’s ruler of almost 23 years announced in a prerecorded statement what he called “a special military operation.”

This was not just a shock on American political Twitter. It was a shock to many of the leading experts and policymakers in the United States, Europe, and even Ukraine. The head of German intelligence was so caught off guard that he was still in Kyiv and had to be evacuated.

But nowhere did the shock feel more profound than among foreign policy analysts in Russia, where overwhelming consensus, until that very moment, had been that Putin would never launch such a war.

Even someone as experienced as Sir John Sawers, former head of the British intelligence agency MI6—the role codenamed C in the James Bond universe—told me just a week before the invasion began: “The idea that Putin was actually going to invade the whole of Ukraine, topple the Kyiv government, and occupy the whole country, for years to come—I never thought that that was a realistic prospect.”

Among even the leaders who had spent weeks warning a major offensive was imminent, a tone of surprise was not too hard to detect in their statements. “I cannot believe this is being done in your name,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, trying to address, for a moment, the Russian people, “or that you really want the pariah status it will bring to the Putin regime.”

*snip*

[Sneederbunk]

1. Not to mention the terrible truth Putin missed about NATO and the world.

[Javaman]

2. and here's the irony. I'm not an expert nor am I a world leader, yet as an amateur historian...

I fully expected him to invade.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. People far removed from decision-making often know more than the deciders

Many a long-time knowledgeable fan knows the coach is wrong, but the coach does it anyway.

[localroger]

12. If you were reading the geopolitical situation then it was an absurdly stupid thing to do

...and you would never expect a leader with an ounce of integrity or even self-preservation to take such a course. But if you were reading Putin himself, it's much more believable that he might have fooled himself into thinking it could succeed and surrounded himself with fluffers and yes-men unwilling to contradict anything he says.

[First Speaker]

23. Right before WWII, George Orwell wrote to a friend...

...something to the effect that didn't they feel they could predict events better than, say, the British Cabinet of Neville Chamberlain? That they just knew instinctively what *kind* of a world they were all living in, with Hitler and Stalin, than the leaders of the country? Just as my father *knew*, right from 1965, that Vietnam was going to be a disaster, while all the LBJs and Westmorelands and McNamaras and their media groupies were so involved in their flow charts and kill ratios. Often, the people know better than their leaders...

[Happy Hoosier]

3. I admit... I thought he was bluffing.

I thought he would rattle the saber and ultimately squeeze out concessions and then back, wait a couple years, rinse and repeat. I was wrong.

I will say this. I am becoming more and more convinced that he will not back down unless he is forced to by his own people.

I'd be worried that he would move to a new target after Ukraine, except I am now convinced that whatever the outcome of this conquest phase, he has NO chance of actually successfully occupying Ukraine. He has sown the seeds of hatred there that will make the life of any occupying force complete hell.

[Me.]

5. What I Don't Actually See In This Article Is...

acknowledgment that Joe Biden kept warning everyone and no one believed him. Our intelligence people were spot on.

[Ursus Rex]

9. A LOT of people are either ignoring that or downplaying it. US intelligence got that one right./

nt

[crickets]

15. 👆 The partisan lean to downgrading or ignoring anything Biden says

has become so pervasive as to be an unconscious given in many minds. There are those in 'serious' media who know better and have let it slide. Current events are far too serious to continue this nonsense. As a matter of public safety, that slant needs to go.

[Me.]

17. Agree

[radius777]

18. +1. Biden, Blinket et al warned the world,

said very clearly that Putin was going to invade and attempt to take Kyiv.

[former9thward]

26. Let's not forget the President of Ukraine was one of those who did not believe the intelligence.

He said the Western nations were overreacting and trying to stir something up. Yet, now people are praising him.

Ukraine Accuses U.S. of Hurting Its Economy by Sowing Panic

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-28/ukraine-accuses-u-s-of-hurting-economy-by-sowing-panic-over-war

Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60072502

[JasonMain]

6. America was telling the world weeks in advance Russia was preparing to invade.

And many accused US of overreacting or poking the bear. US intel was spot on this time.

[Wingus Dingus]

20. Yep--there was right-wing sneering and laughter when the Biden Administration

continually put out assessments and warnings about invasion. I do think they thought it would most likely be limited to the disputed regions, but still--we knew it was coming in some form.

[former9thward]

27. The President of Ukraine also sneered.

Ukraine tension: President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60072502

[Wingus Dingus]

29. He presumably had domestic reasons

to deny it (publicly). Keeping order, not triggering problems with the ethnic Russians in the disputed areas, keeping the economy going and not having panic shortages, that sort of thing. I think it's understandable.

[Caliman73]

7. The expectation from experts is that leaders will follow "norms".

It is the same thing that plagues Democrats here in the US with regards to the rise of an ever more radical right wing / Republican faction.

The expectation is that people will follow the normal rules of engagement that have held together, the peace, or the stability of nations / foreign relations, for the past century or decades.

When you have people who are willing to "cheat" or simply forego how people customarily relate to one another, then you have this surprise. It is the same reason that people get so shocked when confronting psychopaths, who simply "do not care" about the damage they cause. We expect people to have some form of empathy, some form of self restraint because if we all operated on the level of a Putin, Right wing GOP, or psychopaths, then we would eventually have chaos and the only thing that would matter is the projection of force.

As it stands our veneer of "civility" is relatively thin. It does not take very much to push us into a "survival mode" where our more "animal nature" takes over. We have many among us, and disproportionately in positions of power, who operate under those mores.

[raccoon]

10. Yeah and the Dotard and his minions don't follow norms either.

[Caliman73]

13. No they do not.

It was one of the things that "appealed" to some voters in 2016, that he was an "outsider", which I always thought was a dumb idea. Trump is a man who actually is an outsider, in that he has stood outside the norms of "polite society". No one ever really wanted him around. He did not fit in with the Real Estate set in New York, nor with "High Society". He did not fit in with the typical Celebrity culture in Hollywood, etc... People knew who he was and there were some relations with other big names, but he was just that guy who had money and hung around. Trump however, is an "insider" when it comes to using the system to enrich himself. He was never really an "outsider" in the vein that Bernie Sanders was or someone like Ross Perot was in the 90's. Trump is just a cheat. He is a crook. A vulger man without any class who appealed to other vulgar people without class.

He exploited the feelings of people who feel left out of the prosperity that the US claims, even though Trump was NEVER going to help anyone to achieve anything. Much like Putin right now. Putin does not care what happens to Ukrainians or to Russians. This is about what is good for Putin.

There is some validity to populism, but it can be easily exploited by people with no ethics or morals. Sometimes, the systems in place, do not work for everyone and people feel angry that they are left out. They can be manipulated by people seeking power like Putin and Trump.

[crickets]

19. Well said.

"Outsider" has always read to me as a winking code for "outside the norms" civilized society recognizes rather than "not one of the snobs" as so many trumpers assumed. Your analysis is spot on, and eloquently expressed.

[EYESORE 9001]

8. I didn't expect a large-scale invasion

I expected piecemeal invasion - solidifying their presence in Kharkiv and Kherson before attempting further incursions.

[raccoon]

11. I wonder if these are the same experts who were caught flat-footed

When the USSR fell apart.

[FakeNoose]

14. President V. Zelenskyy was elected in 2019, and he already knew that Putin would invade

He didn't know WHEN, but he was sure the invasion would happen. That's why the military aid and arms that the US promised Ukraine were so crucial. You know the ones I mean - the aid that Rudy G. and Chump were holding hostage to get "political dirt on Hunter Biden"?

[Chainfire]

16. The unpredicibality of Putin probaly means he is operating irrationally.

Caution ahead: crazy man at the reigns.

[radius777]

21. Which is why we need to be fully ready for WWIII.

If Putin attempts to use nuclear weapons we have to fully ready to respond and destroy him instantly.

We can't be lulled into the idea that he's bluffing or sabre rattling.

'When someone shows you who they are, believe them.' - Maya Angelou

[LisaL]

22. Oh great.

And he has nukes.

[sarisataka]

24. Maybe I should be an "expert"

To me it was obviously no longer a bluff a couple weeks ago.

[Hortensis]

25. All experts of course realize that one dictatorial ruler can

surprise with his decisions. And that is always an inherently dangerous and unpredictable situation.

They can't do is see inside a dictator's head. Of course. And Putin keeps his inner circle extremely small so that it doesn't leak.

So they looked to his patterns of behavior -- and the situation -- to predict his decisions and the patterns didn't hold. Now they have new pattern of behavior to factor in.

[ibegurpard]

28. Biden was telling us