'Yes, He Would': Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

Tweet text:

Julia Davis
@JuliaDavisNews
"So if anybody thinks that Putin wouldn’t use something that he’s got that is unusual and cruel, think again. Every time you think, “No, he wouldn’t, would he?” Well, yes, he would. And he wants us to know that, of course," says Dr. Fiona Hill.

politico.com
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, Fiona Hill said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.
2:08 PM · Feb 28, 2022

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340


For many people, watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine has felt like a series of “He can’t be doing this” moments. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has launched the largest ground war in Europe since the Second World War. It is, quite literally, mind-boggling.

That’s why I reached out to Fiona Hill, one of America’s most clear-eyed Russia experts, someone who has studied Putin for decades, worked in both Republican and Democratic administrations and has a reputation for truth-telling, earned when she testified during impeachment hearings for her former boss, President Donald Trump.

I wanted to know what she’s been thinking as she’s watched the extraordinary footage of Russian tanks rolling across international borders, what she thinks Putin has in mind and what insights she can offer into his motivations and objectives.

Hill spent many years studying history, and in our conversation, she repeatedly traced how long arcs and trends of European history are converging on Ukraine right now. We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.

“Sadly, we are treading back through old historical patterns that we said that we would never permit to happen again,” Hill told me.

*snip*

[LisaL]

1. Well, that's not at all helpful to those of us who

have anxiety.

[Nevilledog]

2. I'm one of them.

[BootinUp]

3. No good reason to not believe this

This crisis is going to take careful management.

[LuckyCharms]

4. My favorite quote:

"Nothing like that could ever happen. Until it does".

[Nevilledog]

5. We've had too much of that lately.

[LuckyCharms]

6. Yep. Hey, I was 100% sure that tfg could never get elected.

I laughed at the possibility.

I was wrong.

So now, I expect every bad and terrifying thing is going to happen.

At least that way, I can be happily surprised if it doesn't.

Look at it this way. Expect every toilet seat to be freezing cold when you sit down on it. If instead, it is pleasantly at room temperature, you can have a little celebration.

Hi there, Nevilledog. Hope you are well.

[Nevilledog]

7. I'm greatish. That's the best I can do today.

Hope you're better than greatish!

[LuckyCharms]

19. Well to be honest,

I'm a little, I don't know, downish. Feeling a little oldish, a little stiffish, gassyish, farty-ish. That kind of thing.

I was shaving the other day. While doing so, as I looked in the mirror, I told myself "you know, for being 63, you still got it".

Then for some reason later in the day, I had to turn my phone camera on, and I saw myself in the camera and said JESUS FUCKING CHRIST WHAT HAPPENED BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND NOW?????

[Nevilledog]

22. I totally get that.

I swear I do a double take when I glance in a mirror. It's like fuck, where'd that nubile college girl go....and then I notice I have two completely different color socks on.


Watch gonna do?

[LuckyCharms]

24. Hahahaha!

If it makes you feel any better, I always say that while grocery shopping:

Fuck! Where'd that nubile college girl go?

[Nevilledog]

25. We're so much alike.

[LuckyCharms]

27. LOL...seems so! n/t

[North Shore Chicago]

38. LOL

[calimary]

8. I totally get this, my friend.

I’m there myself.

[LuckyCharms]

26. Expect the worst, then celebrate when it doesn't happen!

[LisaL]

9. And he almost got elected the second time.

It was close.

[musclecar6]

15. Yes

It was close. The good news is TFG and his fuckwads lost.

[moonscape]

11. Same. So long for my before-tfg innocence. n/t

[democratsruletheday]

10. Anxiety and depression here too...

have battled it for years and I go down SO many rabbit holes during times like these. Up, down and all around....it's worse than the damn stock market. I just got done reading that Governor DeScumbag in Florida won't send any Nat'l Guardsmen to DC. Now this.....like I said, what a friggin' roller coaster.

[Pobeka]

12. Hill: Correct. And he's blaming others, for why this has happened, and getting us to blame ourselves

Hill: You totally see it. Unfortunately, we have politicians and public figures in the United States and around Europe who have embraced the idea that Russia was wronged by NATO and that Putin is a strong, powerful man and has the right to do what he’s doing

[Nevilledog]

13. See Republicans.

[Pobeka]

14. Yep. That's exactly what she is talking about. nt

[orwell]

16. Great article...

...very sober and clear eyed.

Thanks!

[AngryOldDem]

17. She should know.

We’re not dealing with a sane leader. If he feels backed into a corner, he’ll see it as having nothing to lose.

[tblue37]

18. Excellent (& scary) interview with a Russia expert.

[Solly Mack]

20. K&R

My other half thinks "No". I think "Yes".

I asked him if a lot of that was hope. He laughed and said, "Fuck, yes".

We had this talk the other night.

I agree we are already in WW3 as well.

The Ukrainians are suffering the physical and emotional brutalities of war currently but the world, a lot of it, is materially behind the defensive effort and while the skin in the game isn't the same as of now, because of that very real defensive material support, it soon could be.

It is, in essence, the world against Putin.

The world against an unstable megalomaniac who has no conscience.

You have to prepare for the worst he could do because, fact is, he could do it.

I don't know that he will. I do believe that he would.

[Nevilledog]

23. Sound like a conversation in my house.

I'm heavily leaning towards he would order it, but tell myself someone would refuse.

I'm pessimistic & delusional.

[Solly Mack]

28. I'm a hopeful cynic.

So, yeah, that carries with it more than a little delusion.

[SoonerPride]

21. There is a nonzero chance he would. But ...

There is also a nonzero chance that his orders would not be carried out and he would be killed by his own generals.

[Cha]

29. Of course Vlad Would.. last week I'm pretty sure Fiona

Hill said .. ".. putin had America right where he wanted them.." in so many words..

How's that working out so far?

[Emile]

30. This is why he needs to be taken out, he is a terrorist with nukes!

[dalton99a]

31. The asshole has no qualms about using nuclear weapons

[Hekate]

32. KnR

[icymist]

33. This may be a long read, but an important one.

eom

[Hortensis]

34. Bump. Fiona Hill's definitely worth reading.

Thanks, Nevilledog.

[anamnua]

35. If you need reassurance about nukes

just ponder the image of (covidphobic) Putin and the long table:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/vladimir-putin-ukraine-russia-crisis-long-table-kremlin-memes-rcna16670

He is hypochondriacally paranoid. He does not give diddlysquat about everybody else's existence -- including that of his countrymen. But will not initiate anything that threatens his own.

[Meowmee]

37. That tells me he doesn't realize that he can still get covid in that situation, lol.

[Meowmee]

36. Agree, my feeling on it too...

[renate]

39. I do think *he* would. I don't think it would be carried out

It's not as though he has an "ARMAGEDDON" button on his desk.

Thank god it's not up to one person. But it isn't. We've come closer than we are now, but humans tend to be human (and, fortuitively, Russian). In a good way.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov

[anamnua]

40. I'm not really sure where this lady is coming from.

Is she saying we should face him down?
Or that we should cave in because he has nukes and will use them.