I could see Putin deploying one tactical nuke

[intrepidity]

just so he could show he didn't back down, but more importantly to him, to cement his place in history as the first since the end of WW2 to do so.

The question is: how do we respond? I seriously doubt we would retaliate in kind, but rather would use conventional weapons and more economic tools. I just don't see him actually provoking a full-fledged nuclear exchange.

To be clear, he and his country will pay dearly, but I don't see it to be from nuclear retaliation. And I doubt he'd try a second time--,or rather, I doubt he'd get the opportunity.

Just mho.

[eShirl]

1. only if he wants a giant crater where he used to be

doesn't matter how

[Srkdqltr]

2. I certainly hope you are dead wrong.

[Irish_Dem]

3. Yes from a mental status standpoint this would be consistent with his current behavior.

Sad to say.

He has to double down on the loss of face from his failed initial invasion.

And he is hell bent on showing the world he is a formidable 21st century superpower.

[Metaphorical]

4. No

I can see him authorizing it.

I don't think that the military would obey, and would like mutiny if he did that.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

7. That's my belief also,

and would the special unit of the FSB release any of the warheads?

We've seen dissent inside the FSB opposing this illegal war.

[Beetwasher.]

10. Exactly, And If He Did Somehow Do It, We Would Wipe Him Out of Existence

Quicker than anyone can imagine. Not with nukes, but with the immediate full force of NATO directed squarely at Russian Leadership with every imaginable tool we've got.

[Nevilledog]

5. I think he's going to sabotage Ukraine's nuclear plants. Mass death with plausible deniability.

[Chainfire]

6. He won't do that.

[AlexSFCA]

8. if he does, he'd probably deploy it at Ukraine so I doubt NATO would intervene.

[Gore1FL]

11. Nuclear fallout over Europe would likely count for Article 5. nt

[njhoneybadger]

9. I think the reason for this war is to harm Biden and affect our Nov. elections.

That's what he has been doing for the last 6 or 7 years. I'm not worried about a nuke I'm worried about him destroying America through our political system. And I also think he wants to make NATO look impotent.

[Gore1FL]

13. I suspect the opposite.

His involvement in Western elections is to allow his dream of a rebirthed USSR.

[njhoneybadger]

19. Yes, but it would much easier to rebirth USSR with a sympathetic American president.

Putin is still playing a long game.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

23. He'd have been smarter to wait to do this.

All things being equal, Trump getting reelected in '24 was looking like strong possibility. But a strange disconnect has taken place. Americans- blue and red alike - have lined up behind Ukraine. While the MAGAs will try to explain Trump's support away, the fact remains that he sided with the man Americans view as a villan. Trump may have irretrievably stumbled here. Not only will Dems remind voters of this, but it may finally give equally disgusting Republicans like DeSantis and Ricketts the opening they need to primary Trump. And if we end up involved, look for Americans to rally behind Biden. Wars frequently divide our country - the exception being when we perceive genuine provocation. The main division in WW II was the wisdom of Germany-first (average Americans didn't know about jets or A bombs in '42).

[AntiFascist]

12. One of the explosions yesterday in Kharkiv that they showed on cable news...

produced a quite shocking mushroom cloud. Just saying...

[Gore1FL]

14. Many munitions do. nt

[JHB]

15. Any large explosion will do that

It's just the physics of how those work.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

16. Fuel/Air bombs will do that,

along with many other munitions.

[AntiFascist]

18. Here's a link to the video:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cak6A9bjVfX/

[peggysue2]

17. I just listened to a podcast while out for a walk

The moderator suggested the same thing--that he might use a tactical nuke in a low populated area just to show he can and would, a grim reminder of what he's willing to risk.

He's not playing chess; he's playing poker.

[Zeitghost]

20. I don't think it's likely

But it is a possibility. Especially since Ukraine was forced into giving up their nukes at the end of the Cold War.


Would the US, the UK and other western nuclear powers risk global nuclear war when they had not been directly attacked? I'm not so sure. Mutual Assured Destruction works between nuclear powers, it gets a little more dicey when you involve non-nuclear countries like the Ukraine.

[radius777]

21. NATO would move in and destroy him.

If he uses one nuke there is nothing to prevent him from using more.

NATO would at that point, due to public pressure, and the likelihood of it triggering Article 5, would directly intervene in a non-nuclear fashion to defeat Russia and drive them out of Ukraine.

NATO weaponry and forces are superior to the Russians, and the NATO nations are far wealthier thus can replenish the weapons, munitions and troops far faster. NATO has a combined $42 trillion gdp with 1 billion citizens compared to Russia's $2 trillion gdp and 144 million citizens.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. General Milley calls his Russian counterpart and tells him they have 48 hours to remove Putin

Or NATO launches a full counter strike.

Remember, Milley called his Chinese counterpart during January 6 to assure him the US nuclear arsenal was under control and there would be no surprises.

The Russian generals would have to decide if their loyalty was with Putin or with Russia, and how many of their friends and family would they be willing to sacrifice.

[milestogo]

24. Just one?

He's a raving lunatic.