Beau of the Fifth Column - Let's talk about why analysts are sure Russia won't win....

[Ohio Joe]

Interesting analysis as usual from Beau. It sounds reasonable... It just doesn't go into how much damage is done to the people by this war.

[crickets]

1. K&R for visibility.

[quakerboy]

2. The cynic in me

would ask once you remove the number of refugees, how many more people does Russia have to kill to get the ratio they need?

[Mariana]

3. You have all the information you need to calculate that. nt.

[quakerboy]

5. I dont want to. Its a terrible concept.

but the thought is hard to completely exclude when they start talking about chemical weapons and nuclear weapons.

[BGBD]

4. Problem here is what they will be left with

Putin can't win, but I don't see how what Ukraine is going to need to do be called winning either. I've agreed that Russia can't take and hold Ukraine, just not possible with Ukrainians wiling to fight. But they can cause untold damage to them if they choose to. It doesn't seem like Putin really cares about losses he incures among his military and won't care if they're getting popped off his huge number as long as he can find more to send.

Does Kyiv looking like Raqqa count as winning?

[WarGamer]

7. When Ukraine emerges from this... without occupation and Z still in charge...

Arguably it could be called a victory even if other things didn't go well.

[WarGamer]

6. The problem is... what's the definition of "win"