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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPreparing for Defeat
Last edited Mon Mar 14, 2022, 09:21 PM - Edit history (1)
*1.Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operationthere are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2.The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. >>>
https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/?
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1017720684#post1
PortTack
(32,793 posts)Read recently that for every solider on the front, it takes 3-4 soldiers to keep him supplied. Russia had 200k at the front, that X 3-4 is pretty close to the known total of Russian military. Even if its just 3, he cant move his entire force into Ukraine
bucolic_frolic
(43,280 posts)Guerilla warfare and insurgency belongs to the home team.
Russian army fights like mercenaries.
They only fight like Stalingrad when they're in Stalingrad.
Suggest, comrade, refresher course in 1944 2.0.
erronis
(15,328 posts)Good line.
marie999
(3,334 posts)thucythucy
(8,086 posts)and military planner as, well, as Putin.
All "his" early victories were the result of German General Staff planning and preparation.
One by one all his most competent generals were forced to retire or were shuffled from front to front whenever they defied Hitler's absurd orders to hold everywhere and always. By 1943 a group of them were actively planning to kill him.
Not to mention, the Russians did have some help. The US, Britain and Canada supplied military equipment worth hundreds of billions in today's dollars. Such aid is unlikely to come from anywhere to help Russia subjugate Ukraine. A mob of Syrian mercenaries and press-ganged conscripts hardly qualify. Nor is anyone likely to stage a Normandy style landing or conduct a bombing campaign to divert Ukrainian ground and air forces from its eastern front.
Finally, it should be noted that a lot of those "Russians" who fought their way to Berlin, officers and enlisted, happened actually to be Ukrainians.
PatSeg
(47,585 posts)They brought their "dress uniforms" with them to wear in Kyiv for their victory parade? That is really some hubris.
Most of them are probably too young to remember Afghanistan and the aftermath.
sop
(10,243 posts)lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)PatSeg
(47,585 posts)what they were in for, just unwitting pawns in Putin's game of Stratego.
Evolve Dammit
(16,763 posts)PatSeg
(47,585 posts)Asked to kill people that many Russians feel akin to. Then to find out they don't have enough ammo, food, fuel, or other resources to do the job and it appears that the Ukrainians DO. What kind of commander in chief does that to his own soldiers?
PatSeg
(47,585 posts)vain and reckless misadventure.
albacore
(2,406 posts)erronis
(15,328 posts)He'd rather they rot in their burned-out equipment or on the fields of Ukraine.
Just like trump - didn't want to visit the bodies of soldiers that fought for "his" country. Of course we now know that his country is the USSR.
PatSeg
(47,585 posts)No posthumous medals or ceremonies back home. Used and discarded.
NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)They wanted to be on the front lines for a picture but they got a ride home in a box.
PatSeg
(47,585 posts)Perhaps even the generals bought the Putin hype.
Stuart G
(38,439 posts)JohnSJ
(92,382 posts)L. Coyote
(51,129 posts)But it sure reads like propaganda.
Chainfire
(17,636 posts)The stats that I looked up on the infallible world wide web says that Putin's active army was 900K men, with a reserve of 2M at least partially trained soldiers. I have no clue if those numbers are correct, but I bet Biden knows. One of us got bad numbers. Putin has reserves, but if he sent in his "A" team into Ukraine, he may as will not have.
If, and I mean this sincerely, you have a better set of numbers on the Russian Order of Battle, I would like to see them.
Putin certainly made the colossal blunder of underestimating both Ukrainian and World reaction to his invasion. He probably wishes that he had stayed to hell at home. However, lets do not repeat his error by thinking that Russia is beaten and running a victory lap before it is over. We did that in the Ardennes in 1944 and it ended up being the bloodiest battle that American fought in WWII. We had 75,000 causalities during the six week Battle of the Bulge. 20,000 dead! That was the cost of underestimating the enemy.
modrepub
(3,502 posts)If that's the WHOLE Russian Army, it's not the DEPLOYABLE Russian army. You can't pick up all your troops and move them to Ukraine, otherwise your borders are defenseless. In truth, there's only so many field army units that can be moved into Ukraine. Sure you can raise some more via a draft or call for volunteers (or voluntolds), but putting raw recruits into a battle zone is just throwing them away.
This is analogous to the late Roman Empire. The "barbarian" hordes that troubled the Empire were never very large, maybe in the tens of thousands. The Late Roman standing army numbered over half a million (at least on paper). But the Emperor couldn't pull all his troops. At best he could field a standing army pulled from parts of his total troop numbers to deal with emergencies, which left the Emperor with similar numbers of troops as his barbarian counterparts.
My guess is Russia has already deployed all the troops they could spare. I doubt Putin would put his best troops in Ukraine. He'll need them if things turn south to prop himself up from domestic opposition. It's probably why Putin is looking to other allies to augment his troops already in Ukraine. He can't spare any and he's loathe to commit his best troops in case of rebellion. A sudden draft would probably not be popular and it doesn't seem the regular Russian folks are all that fond of this war.
Best we can do is provide as much material support to Ukraine so they can continue the fight. It would also behoove us to constantly test Russia's perimeter to prevent other forces from being transferred to the Ukrainian theater.
Chainfire
(17,636 posts)sending raw, partially trained troops into battle. Look to history! In fact you don't have to look far. We know he sent new conscripts partially trained, into Ukraine in the past couple of weeks!
People keep misreading that Putin has deployed 100% of his troops to Ukraine. That is demonstrably untrue. Whether he has sent 100% of his readily available troops to Ukraine, I don't know, do you? If you assume that he has no reserves available then you are saying that Putin is a complete idiot. Putin is a very bad man, an evil tyrant, and I think that he made a huge mistake, but I don't believe that he is a total idiot. That comes back to the point of underestimating your enemy, and make no mistake, I believe that Putin is my mortal enemy.
modrepub
(3,502 posts)You are in control until you're not. Just ask Mussolini, Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi. Maybe Putin has troops to force new recruits into battle. Hussein did that. Look what it got him.
I have no expertise on Russia or general military topics. But wars are unpredictable by nature. They tend to be longer and more expensive than what the "experts" say. What happened to us in Iraq and Afghanistan?
Putin fabricates himself a Russian Emperor, the claimant of the Byzantine and Roman Empires. I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers the same fate as other Emperors who were stained with defeat. Exile at best, execution at worst (at the hands of the part to the next Emperor).
Chainfire
(17,636 posts)Hitler may have made a good corporal, but he failed mightily as a Field Marshall.
We know that Putin is not a chess master, but I just find it hard to believe that Putin would sacrifice his queen in the opening moves of the game. Maybe he did...time will tell. Perhaps by my comment that I don't think he is an idiot, it may prove that I am.
Putin will never be put out to pasture, he would be too dangerous; he is far more likely to succumb to sudden onset lead poisoning or a massive heart attack.... The stress of saving the Motherland you know...
brush
(53,841 posts)It's not that big a country compared to the top most populated nations. At 144m it's not in the top 8 which are shown below. It's number 9
Bangladesh 167 Million. ...
Nigeria 202 Million. ...
Brazil 211 Million. ...
Pakistan 216 Million. ...
Indonesia 270 Million. ...
United States 329 Million. ...
India 1.37 Billion. ...
China 1.43 Billion.
Putin is punching way above his weight and trying to run with big boys.
The figures about his troops and the numbers in reserve must be true. His army is not that big and it's training level is sorely lacking.
Putin's army has been exposed as not that formidable. No wonder he's asking China, Belarus and Syria for help.
Chainfire
(17,636 posts)brush
(53,841 posts)Quite a few nations have potential to raise bigger armies and Putin's hasn't performed that well in Ukraine. He does have nukes though, but so do other nations he's threatening.
IMO his miscalculation of his army's strength and his move into Ukraine expecting to be welcomed doesn't bode well for his survival as the top man in Russia. After this mess is over, even if he eventually wins in Ukraine in a bloody, extended campaign, he'll be a war criminal and will be deposed by forces in the Kremlin like Khruschev was. I don't think he'll have the grace to step down like Gorbachev and Yelsin.
Hell, he may accidentally "fall" out of a high window even.
keithbvadu2
(36,898 posts)So far, mercenaries from Syria, Chechnya, and South Africa?
LiberalLovinLug
(14,176 posts)What is more scary is if China decides to back Putin
in exchange of course for Putin helping them secure Taiwan down the road.
Which is why, even though I am mostly a pacifist, I think its a huge mistake not to help Ukraine quash this Russian Hitler as soon as possible. Whining about Putin "escalating" the conflict while Putin is actually escalating the conflict unilaterally anyways.
I can foresee NATO eventually dragged into it. Why wait until these other countries have already committed to Komrade Putin? I predict that, just like Georgia, Putin will either leave on his own, or be soundly defeated very quickly if he is threatened in any serious way.
And the nuclear threat? There will always be a nuclear threat. We should not let that mean we allow any dictator to do whatever they want. If Putin ever dropped a nuke, I really don't think he'd have anyone on his side anymore.
erronis
(15,328 posts)Not sure how many of this guard will remain faithful to the ex-KGB officer as they watch senior officers being murdered for not performing at 110%.
Straw Man
(6,625 posts)... being overextended. Empires may be hard to build, but they're even harder to maintain.
relayerbob
(6,554 posts)30,000 NATO troops in and around Norway
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_193199.htm
3Hotdogs
(12,405 posts)to God's eyeballs.
SheltieLover
(57,073 posts)And they are expected to default on Wednesday!
Ty, Ellen!
NNadir
(33,542 posts)Celerity
(43,497 posts)A decided turn towards authoritarianism, to offset popular dissent, is arguably becoming a defining feature of politics in Asia, the Middle East, and South America, and indeed in the democratic West, as well.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2020/12/19/how-huntington-and-fukuyama-got-the-21st-century-wrong
What is going on in the 21st-century world of international politics? With very few exceptions, national elections are revealing degrees of partisanship and ideological polarisation among voters never seen before. It seems not to be a rare occurrence these days that the losers are either claiming that they are actually the winners or that the results have been rigged by their opponents and can therefore be disregarded.
This is the farcical game outgoing President Donald Trump is currently playing in the United States, despite there being little or no evidence that President-elect Joe Biden and the Democratic party committed the widespread electoral fraud he wildly accuses them of. As Republican Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland has openly lamented, today the US risks being seen as a banana republic rather than as the leader of the democratic world.
Despite this, hordes of Republican supporters continue to rally behind the anti-democratic narrative that President Trump continually tweets. As one newspaper article pointed out, the United States has become the Divided States of America.
If the recent examples of Belarus and Myanmar are anything to go by as well, it would seem that opposition parties have little faith in the mechanism of democratic elections reconciling alienating differences or bringing citizens closer together. Creating divisiveness seems to be the order of the day, even in established democratic countries.
snip
NNadir
(33,542 posts)...I had to pet the cat and couldn't make it.
...I had to pet the cat and couldn't make it.
multigraincracker
(32,714 posts)The country is 3 days from being in default.
roamer65
(36,747 posts)BlackSkimmer
(51,308 posts)For no good reason.
Evolve Dammit
(16,763 posts)erronis
(15,328 posts)That bit of sophistry has left a very sour taste for anything he may now want to say.
Maybe the right word is opportunistic. Which way the power winds blow. Maybe older age has given him some perspective and wisdom.
Not to put too much credence in every statement in this wiki evaluation, it does seem to ring true.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama
AZLD4Candidate
(5,751 posts)and make the war one of attrition where Japanese and Nazi supply lines were under constant attack, shredding them to ribbons.
Obviously, Putin doesn't know the history of his own country.
Mr. Ected
(9,670 posts)He was quite prolific and they were on very friendly terms.
A few months ago he told them he was being conscripted into the Russian Army and he sold his entire catalog to them for a trifling sum.
He was just a kid. Just a kid.
I honestly wonder if they'll ever hear from him again.
FakeNoose
(32,745 posts)But I do know one thing: Pootie will NEVER call this a defeat.
As long as he's alive, he'll find some way to call it some kind of victory. Even when he knows he's lost, he'll never say it. In that way, Pootie's a lot like Chump. (Or maybe it's vice versa.)
I really, really hope this leads to the Russian people (including the military) finally finishing him off. Wouldn't that be a great way to end this, once and for all?
That link backs up the op. Russia is failing.
XiJung
(81 posts)honest.abe
(8,685 posts)XiJung
(81 posts)Your turn
Be careful of wishful thinking
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)You have nothing.
XiJung
(81 posts)honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Ciao.
XiJung
(81 posts)XiJung
(81 posts)CaptainTruth
(6,601 posts)I'm sure he's not, because he's far too delusional to think he could ever be defeated.
And that, is perhaps his greatest weakness.
The fact that he will refuse to see it coming will make it easier for it to sneak up on him.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)He thought they would have taken control of the country by now. The entire free world is united against him and everything Russian. The Russian economy is collapsing and may never recover. The reputation of Russia will be forever tainted unless they can rid themselves of Putin and everything he stands for. He has miserably failed in this foolish and evil venture. Fuck him.
dwayneb
(768 posts)There is zero chance that Ukraine is going to win this war. The only question is what Putin will do next once he has pulverized Ukraine.
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Response to dwayneb (Reply #50)
Chin music This message was self-deleted by its author.
Torchlight
(3,360 posts)Heck, even now I suspect Putin is already looking for some face-saving excuses to justify a military draw-down or detent.
From appearances, the Russian people are walking the edge of an abyss right now, and if they fall one way or the other, Putin could become a variation of Nicolae Ceaușescu's ultimate fate. Probably not as gruesome or violent, but a well-timed tincture in his morning tea or he sits on a tipped-needle; it only takes one person with access (yes, I know Putin is a paranoid man-- but I think every person presents themselves as a target when we least expects it).