David Rothkopf: China Is About to Make a Big Mistake by Supporting Russia

[Nevilledog]

Link to tweet

https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-is-about-to-make-a-big-mistake-by-supporting-russia?ref=scroll

China is about to make a big mistake.

Faced with the choice between playing a constructive role in helping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, or helping support Russia’s brutal attack on that country, China seems committed to a course that could plunge the world into a new Cold War.

On Monday, US officials led by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Rome with a Chinese delegation led by his counterpart, Yang Jiechi. While a central topic of the seven hour-long discussion was Ukraine, the meeting covered a wide range of topics including North Korea, Taiwan, and on-going efforts to manage strategic risks confronting the two nations.

A source familiar with what transpired in the meeting told me that their sense was that “the Chinese at the highest levels have thrown in with Putin” and that Chinese President Xi Jinping is “trying to play it neutral in public but back Putin substantially in the background—economically, financially, and now perhaps militarily. I don’t think they want to play a mediation role.”

The source added, “I sense substantial distrust and not much upward promise at this time. U.S. officials told them that if China continues on its path with Russia it will be one of the most consequential turning points in modern history.”

*snip*

[ruet]

1. This Makes No Sense What So Ever.

WTF is going on with the world?

ON EDIT: We have to be reading something incorrectly here. ... don't we?

[UTUSN]

2. Oh crap. Was gonna post, save the world/China.

Well, China plays the (very) long game (5K years).

[former9thward]

3. They are not making a mistake from their perspective.

They are decoupling from the West. They see Asia and Africa as the future and they are pouring tens of billions into infrastructure projects in countries there. That is their future.

[BeyondGeography]

6. Nonsense...their trade with the West is over $1 trillion annually

This is about having Russia’s nukes on their side when Xi does his own Ukraine deal in Taiwan, nothing more.

[former9thward]

10. Unlike the U.S. Chinese leadership looks into the future.

Generally they use a hundred year look forward. The trade with the now developing countries will be 100 trillion. Sorry that disturbs you. I guess you have not heard of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative which 139 countries have joined (all outside the West with the exception of Italy where the Chinese are investing heavily).

[BeyondGeography]

14. That will be of enormous comfort to the Chinese people when their economy takes a massive hit

as we turn away from them and we all play Cold War again.

But, hey, in 2100 or so it will all make perfect sense..

[former9thward]

33. The U.S. won't do that.

It would damage the U.S. economy just as much if not more.

[Wingus Dingus]

9. They're hesitant. So they think it might be a mistake.

[former9thward]

12. They are not hesitant.

Just because Western media "experts" say they are. The same experts who previously told us China would not join Russia in anything because they did not want to offend their Western trade partners.

[Wingus Dingus]

13. We don't know if, or to what extent, they will participate in Russia's disaster.

I have read analysis that they are not happy with how it's going.

[BeyondGeography]

15. They look like fools

Vlad told them it would be a lightning coup, easy-peasy. Their hands would be clean. Now he’s hitting them up for drones to help kill Ukrainians.

[Wingus Dingus]

18. Yes. It's like agreeing to drive the getaway car for a quick bank robbery, and then

the idiot bank robber decides he's going to stay and take hostages for ransom, too--WAY more involved than what was initially planned. Vlad must be promising all sorts of shit behind the scenes.

[standingtall]

31. Would be a huge mistake in my opinion

The bulk of their trade wealth comes from the U.S.,Japan and the European Union. If we can isolate Russia we could do the same to China. So all that money they have been using to invest in African and Asian countries would be gone. Also Nigeria would likely join in on sanctioning China if it came to that. The most populated country and the largest economy in Africa and the fastest population growth of any of the worlds top 10 most populated countries. Russia other Asian countries and parts of Africa would not be nearly enough to compensate for their losses. So I'm inclined to believe it would be a major mistake.

[former9thward]

34. Nigeria is not participating in the Russian sanctions.

Why would they participate in China sanctions?

[Wingus Dingus]

4. What will be China's stated rationale for providing the means to kill

Ukrainians? I am genuinely curious. I'm no scholar on war, but usually there's some sort of grievance or dispute or security concern as a cover story, however contrived or manufactured. One would especially expect it from a superpower.

[ruet]

5. Superpower?

Since when?

[Wingus Dingus]

7. They want to be seen as one.

[ruet]

11. Got'cha. -NT-

[Nevilledog]

17. They're pushing the biolabs disinformation on Chinese state tv

[Wingus Dingus]

20. Probably why Russia went to the UN with it--gave China a cover story.

[Nevilledog]

22. QAnon and RWNJs are pushing this because it dovetails with a favorite conspiracy theory

[Wingus Dingus]

23. Yes, I see that on RW blogs.

[uponit7771]

24. +1, ... and it looks like it started there not from Russia

[Nevilledog]

32. Russia has been pushing biolabs conspiracies for years.

They used it in 2018 when they were invading Georgia.

[mucifer]

8. So just about all the factories are in China now that make all of our crap.

[JCMach1]

36. Not your grandfather's factories

They are a much simpler process to move, or develop new ones these days...

[localroger]

16. It would honestly be a big surprise to find China supporting Russia

They have been bitter enemies for literally over a millennium, and China is probably eyeing up Siberia with a long-term eye to annexing as much of it as possible as being their rightful legacy. Particularly with climage change making the weather warmer there and more violent in more southerly climes.

Also, China does not need Russia's nukes. They have nukes of their own, an delivery systems as good as Russia's. They didn't build as many of them as Russia or particularly the US did, but they did build enough to thoroughly deter anyone else from using nukes on them, which is the whole operative theory behind MAD. They didn't feel the need to bankrupt themselves building overkill levels when it's quite clear no sane enemy would risk being hit by even a few.

If they do form an alliance I would expect it to be as honest and trustworthy as Stalin's pact with Hitler, which is to say the Russians would need to really watch their backs. Because they are now overextended and the Chinese aren't. The Chinese might want to present what looks like a strong front against NATO and the US, but they will abandon it in a microsecond if they can find better advantage elsewhere.

[uponit7771]

26. +1, I'm thinking Xi was like .. yeah, go ahead and attack it'll be quick ... laughing at Putrid in

... the background knowing he's going to fail huge.

Then they come in and get all the fuel they need for cheap quick fast and now they have a neutralized Russia.

Xi has 1.5 billion people in his country he doesn't need Lebensraum

[BeyondGeography]

27. Siberia is definitely on the menu

They could be forgiven for seeing it as something they could one day pick up for a song as corrupt Russia descends into financial ruin, not unlike the deals the Chinese themselves felt cornered into making in the 19th century.

[Arazi]

19. If I were Xi Id be mulling over invading Russia about now

Instead of helping Russia, they could overpower them in a week and own it all including the oil.

I’m surprised that hasn’t been war-gamed out by now via our armchair generals 🧐

[Wingus Dingus]

21. Too nuke-y.

[Arazi]

25. I dunno, they both have them

I’m guessing Russian generals are already queasy at the coming confrontation with NATO and are privately agreeing to disobey a Putin nuke order.

Would be interesting to know (and I’m sure China and the US know) if there’s a lack of willpower at the top to annihilate the planet for Putin’s insanity

[roamer65]

28. If China would just sit back and let Russia implode, they would get Siberia by default.

[localroger]

29. That might be a reason for them to enter a pretend alliance

With careful timing they could put the knife in Russia's back, take Siberia, and rattle their own nukes if Russia objects.

[roamer65]

30. +1000

[ruet]

35. Come Now.

Let me see if I have this straight. The prevailing wisdom seems to be that Russia will use nukes against the US if the US uses conventional weapons against Russia. So we are to believe that Russia wouldn't do the same if China launched a war for territory against them. China rattling their nuclear saber? In a war of nuclear weapons, China is a gnat. Russia could glass the whole of China several times over. Russia has retired more weapons than any other nuclear state, besides the US, has in its current inventory. ...combined. Russia could lay down a nuclear screen to thwart any ground incursion and still melt the rest of China's launch capability in a single salvo. China's nukes aren't meant for use against the nuclear Superpowers. ...yet.

Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance

[localroger]

37. US and Russia both have far more nukes than we ever needed

China has enough -- by design -- to make it very stupid to start a nuclear exchange with them. Nobody "wins" a nuclear war by having massive overkill. Both sides lose once they've lost even a few large cities and manufacturing complexes. But Russia is rapidly depleting its conventional war capability in Ukraine, while China isn't. China could launch a ground incursion at some remote location in the East with Russia having insufficient resources for a conventional response, but also sufficiently deterred by China's nuclear capability to realize it would be, um, unwise to start a nuclear exchange in response. The whole theory behind China's nuclear strategy is you don't need to "glass" your enemy to sufficiently deter them. A credible threat to reliably destroy Moscow and a dozen other major population centers in a response strike would probably be enough to make any Russian leader think real hard about launching first. And China has massive overkill capability for that strategy.

Of course, this presupposes that whoever is running Russia is willing to follow the basic precepts of the MAD Nash equilibrium. This may not be the case for Putin, if the rumors about him being in ill health are true. If the Chinese do have this idea as a possible future plan, I would not expect them to execute it immediately, but to carefully weigh the political situation in Moscow before acting.

[ruet]

38. Quick Question.

Do you believe that Putin would order the use of nuclear weapons against NATO conventional forces if NATO were to intervene in Ukraine?

[localroger]

39. That goes to my last paragraph

The conventional answer would be no. The reason we have managed to go 80 years without a hot nuclear war is that there is a universally acknowledged strategy to escalation which everyone follows not because they signed an agreement, but because everyone has studied and agreed it makes the most sense for each player individually to follow that strategy. That strategy was developed by John Nash and adopted by the US, and after some kicking and screaming the Soviets finally allowed as to how yes, they could not find any flaws in the argument and they decided to follow it too. And so also all the others who have joined the nuclear club, with the possible exception of North Korea, which doesn't matter because they don't have a delivery system.

But there is some question as to how rational Putin is. The thing is, he would not only have to decide to violate the strategy, a command and control system designed to enforce it would have to be overridden (Russia's "nuclear football" has to be activated by an early warning system that won't enable it unless there is evidence of an incoming nuclear attack) and all the other actors necessary to put missiles in play would have to go along.

So TL;DR he's not supposed to even be able to order a nuclear response to any conventional strike, and I don't think he would be likely to try or that the system would go along if he did, but it's not impossible. I suspect this is the current thinking in Washington and Beijing too.