The States Poised to Be the New Abortion Battlegrounds
It’s likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will reverse or severely curtail federal constitutional abortion rights in its upcoming decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization this spring or early summer. In that event, some states are already poised to enact new laws (some of it “trigger” legislation that goes into effect automatically) that severely curtail reproductive rights. These state actions could help mobilize Americans on both sides of the abortion-policy barricades for the November midterms. But the biggest political battles are likely to break out in states where lawmakers hell-bent on banning some, if not all, abortions collide with constituencies in which a majority favor maintaining the status quo.
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Seven states look very likely to meet all these ingredients for a post-Roe backlash to Republican anti-abortion legislative activity: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They all have Republican-controlled legislatures. Every state but Michigan has red-hot Senate contests this year, and all but North Carolina have competitive (or potentially competitive) gubernatorial races. All of them, of course, are likely to be presidential battleground states in 2024.
Jacobson also identifies three other states — Florida, Iowa, and Ohio — that could become major post-Roe abortion battlegrounds depending on how aggressively the reigning Republicans conduct themselves and whether statewide election contests become truly competitive.
In each of these states, Democrats are likely to draw as much attention as possible to any unpopular anti-abortion legislation that emerges. Meanwhile, Republicans will be under intense pressure from their base to push abortion restrictions up to, or even beyond, the levels that the federal court finds acceptable.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-states-poised-to-be-the-new-abortion-battlegrounds/ar-AAVgLhQ
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