Forget No-Fly Zones, experts feel Putin could use nukes anyway due to current NATO pressure

before we could push the button. I think that is what
has emboldened him. That moron Trump said he would have our submarines over there. Like no body has thought
of that.

So those missiles can be detected on launch.

Second, there are reliable sources that indicate that those missiles are still in the testing stage and cannot be considered reliable.

Third, Russia only has a small number of them. They can't be used for a sustained attack on anything. And now, with Russia's fast dwindling economy and the shortage of high tech parts on the import list, there are a lot of questions about those missiles being a real and immediate threat.

And fourth, Russia's boast of the accurate use of a hypersonic missile in UKR is lacking in confirming evidence. Their claim that it hit an underground ammo storage facility can't be confirmed. The data given as proof isn't consistent with the "meta-data" within the evidence. And the meta-data that matches their report shows that a missile struck farm equipment in a rural area. So it's anyone's guess, but certainly not an explicit grain of truth.

We have land based, air based, and sea based nuclear missiles (submarines)that would survive a first strike. Only a dotard thinks a nuclear war is winnable. Is Putin a dotard?

And likely, those who are not participating in sanctions will then participate and choke off everything to Russia. Nukes are intolerable under any circumstances. The world of nations knows this. Nukes do not create a harvest. Nukes do not farm the land. Nukes do not feed a hungry population.

the fallout will involve NATO counties.

Oh no, we should let Putin win or he'll release the nukes.

The sooner the better to avoid the "sunk cost" fallacy.

Agreed then

I type slowly.

The Russian military doctrine emphasizes immediate escalation followed by immediate de-escalation, hoping that its enemy would be spooked by its escalation but become “relieved” that the escalation was a one time event. But if Putin uses a tactical nuke along these lines in Ukraine, I don’t think NATO and the US will simply relent. In fact, at that point, I don’t think that there is much of a choice even if it means a direct confrontation with Russia.

Pointing a gun at his wife over and over to intimidate her ,than saying I could kill you playing with the trigger.


Ukraine dont you become independant from me,I own you and I wont let you leave, have you been cheating with the west.? I'll kill you if you even think of joining NATO.

Blowing up kids,does it hurt? Not as bad as I do with you acting like this resisting me Ukraine

That is the mentality of putrid...and the right wing over here,and every autocrat,every abuser,every dark triad waste of skin in the world.

A no fly zone would cause nuclear war. Then Pootin moved the goal post? Wow no one could have seen that coming. Well I am sure after this change he will calm down and stop threatening the world. Right?

As in "if we only do this much Putin won't use nukes".

That was a fallacy, because as the article makes clear, the Russians are always prepared to go nuclear if they are losing what they view as an "existential" war.

...Vladimir Putin. ... If you or any member of the IF Force are captured or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions."

"Good luck, Jim."

Even China and India.

It would be the dumbest thing Putin could do, turning Russia into a completely isolated nation.

OK.

I am down with that.

A no-fly zone pretty much guarantees nuclear exchanges after we shoot down a few Russian jets and hit missile sites inside Russia to protect our air force.

NATO is a defensive force, and will remain one.

And as the article explains, all nukes aren't equivalent. A 5 kiloton battlefield tactical isn't the same as a 1 megaton city killer. Putin uses a few tacticals, and it's not automatically WW3. The radioactive fallout wouldn't even be that significant. A few ICBM's get launched though,and a counterstrike launches against them, and pretty soon it's goodbye to a few billion humans.

So, you think that Putin would do the "dumbest thing" and use nukes if a NO-Fly Zone was implemented, even if he was given warning weeks ahead of time?

OK, I can understand that viewpoint

My question is, do you think that Putin would also use nukes if he keeps losing men and equipment in a year long war as things stand now?

I think he would. Infact, I think he would be more likely to use nukes then.

What say you?

But he will be much more likely to launch ICBM's if NATO attacks Russia itself, as we would have to do to enforce a no-fly zone. Russian anti-aircraft missile batteries a hundred miles inside Russian territory would need to be hit, or our jets will be targeted over Ukraine.

And I draw a sharp line between the two types of nuclear threat. Human civilization isn't threatened by a few tactical nukes against Ukraine. Tactical nukes delivered by fighter-launched missiles like the Iskander against a non-NATO state won't trigger an automatic NATO counterstrike.

Civilization is most certainly is threatened if Putin feels his homeland is being physically invaded, and deploys the MAD solution with hundreds of megatons of warheads from subs and missile silos. That's a planetary death sentence.

Thanks for the thoughtful discussion.

Do the dumbest thing
ever and eventually kill thier wives and children. The family that they have been intimidating and beating into a submissive stupor every friday too.

What makes you think putrid wont do the dumbest thing ever anyway? Is he less likely to use nukes just because he has gotten away with murder already.

Sometimes abusers and autocrats do the dumbest shit and go to jail.

Putrid is just another abusive dark triad asshole except he threatens and abuses entire nations

He's gaslighting NATO
Threatening the world as he fondles the nuclear button..getting away with murder . He's getting off on the fancy that america and nato wont stop him and so he pushes the envelope over and over a bit more than more..until he does the stupidist thing ever just to say you arent the boss of ME.

The comments "he's gaslighting NATO" and "abusers do the dumbest things" seem, on the face, ambiguous in regards to Putin actually using nukes.

So, would he do the dumbest thing and use nukes?

Or is he just gaslighting NATO and won't use nukes?

Or is he just an unpredictable abuser and god only knows what would trigger him to use nukes?

Thanks for the discussion.

If the Russian people can't govern themselves in a manner that keeps the world from nuclear war, than someone else will have to govern them until they get their priorities in order.

Do you really think that Russia can not be defeated by the rest of the world? In practical terms, Russia is a piss-ant compared to 1941 Germany. Do you think that it is not within our power to melt Moscow and St. Petersburg? If the nuclear missiles start flying, that is where we are headed, the destruction civilization, theirs, ours and everyone else's. Even in a conventional war, the miles aren't as long as they were in Napoleons day, or for that matter, Hitler's day. We are no longer bound by the speed of a draft horse.

It would be either to defend the world or hand it over to a madman that would still have a nuclear arsenal. Our species has had a good run, maybe it is something else's turn. I would love to see dogs have the chance to run the world, given a few million years of evolution, who knows.

Because doing what you suggest would lead to a major nuclear exchange between the US and Russia where there could be no "winners".

Well, maybe China, or more likely Brazil since they are in the southern hemisphere.

To be clear, I am saying this in response to your comment:




But, I think I understand your position, thanks for the discussion.

Since they probably wouldn't be worthy of getting nuked, then they could have fun picking up the pieces. Mexico would probably move into a nearly vacant USA after the fallout clears.

Cats will be the next ones to become lords of the Earth.
But maybe the dogs and cats already know much more how to deal with diversity in species because they do that without missing a beat now as a less evolved species.

I think cats and dogs would be perfect choices in taking our place.

then WWIII has begun. I am an old hippie peacenik and even I would feel that we had to react in kind. Extortion is one thing, mass murder, and ecological destruction is another. I wonder if the Russian people and their leader really want to see Moscow end up as a bowl of molten glass, because that is the likely end result. Is Putin's pride worth the destruction of civilization? Stay tuned....

Escalating than de-escalating...

first targeting empty ground...

bullshit like that.

That's the danger of thinking that our current policy has no risks of nuclear escalation.

If Putin launches any nuke that will bring an end to NATO incrementalism. Russia itself will be in the crosshairs.

…

Honest question.

Perhaps that should be it's own OP actually.

Thanks for pointing out that as a possibility.

That would be my guess if he uses chemical weapons, given NATO’s limited response so far. Maybe bombing the chemical weapon units…depending on continued use.

My personal opinion would be that we should supply Ukraine with VX and sarin nerve gas munitions in response.

If there were we wouldn’t be in this situation.

He isn't negotiating in good faith. It was said that he hasn't changed his stance on those first demands he had. He wants Ukraine to give up its land, in exchange for what?

Putin didn't plan ahead very much. He probably thought that he'd be done in a week. And now, there's nowhere for him to go. Thousands of his soldiers dead, his equipment smashed, and he has no "off ramp." I have been trying to think what he could be offered. Nothing! He wants that seashore from Odessa up to Mariupol and beyond.

I am not a psychologist. I think that Biden is doing just fine. I am frustrated, angry, and depressed over what Ukraine is going through, for nothing. As far as I am concerned, Russia started WW3. And, they won't go home, and they won't go away. If Putin uses chemicals or nukes, either way there will be some kind of response.

Russia hasn't suffered any structural damage within their borders. Putin doesn't care about his dead soldiers. So, he suffers nothing. There is no cost to him. Sure, sanctions are great, but he personally has about $600 billion bucks. So, how is this going to hurt him personally? He probably can eat caviar every day of the week.

I can't think of one single thing that would induce him to stop. Except, maybe his family being kidnapped. Do you think he cares anything about them? I'm not saying, do something there, but I can't think of anything that will motivate him except sheer, naked military power.

Putin has got to go.

It seems like we went from the frying pan into the fire and it could get much worse. He has to go I agree. Maybe they can hack into his accounts. He must have money stashed all over though. It is puzzling why he did this now although I think he has had this intention for a long time. I guess due to successfully weakening US and other democracies and destabilizing everything. I hope we don’t all get vaporized or radiated etc. I can hardly believe all of this is happening truth be told. The last several years have been one never ending nightmare since dump.

As for the family they are almost never in the press and are well hidden. His ex wife remarried to a younger man and it was reported she told a journalist that p abused her. He had two daughters with her and he may have other children. You can look all of this up online.