Dominant strain (BA.2) hasn't shown signs of starting a surge

[Doc Sportello]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/06/health/where-is-ba-2/index.html

snip

The Omicron subvariant caused as many as 3 in 4 cases of Covid-19 in the United States last week, according to the latest genomic surveillance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but so far, there are no signs of a looming surge in the US.
Even as BA.2 has become dominant, overall numbers of cases are still decreasing, says Dr. Jessica Justman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health.

snip

Zooming in on areas of the country that are seeing more BA.2 transmission, like New York, wastewater has been only modestly affected.
"It's still low when we look at absolute raw numbers of viral copies in wastewater," said David Larson, an associate professor of public health at Syracuse University who helped create the state's wastewater dashboard.

[Blues Heron]

1. Connecticut numbers are up 100 percent since March 12

Daily avg is now 485/day, up from 240

New York (excluding NYC) - same thing- up 100 percent

Daily avg now 2043 up from 976.


https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases

[SoonerPride]

2. There is no surge from Omicron bA2

Anecdotal data is not evidence.



BA2has been the dominant strain for more than a month and we are not seeing a surge.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/briefing/covid-cases-us-omicron-subvariant.html

To many people’s surprise — including mine — new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have not begun to rise. Over the past two weeks, they have held roughly steady, falling about 1 percent, even as the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron has become the dominant form of Covid in the U.S.

Across much of Europe, by contrast, cases surged last month after BA.2 began spreading there, and many experts expected a similar pattern here. That hasn’t happened. “It has not taken off,” Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist, told me.

1. More immunity

Even though the U.S. has a lower vaccination rate than Western Europe, this country may still have built up more immunity — thanks to our politically polarized response to the virus.

2. Fewer tests
Still, the shortage of testing does not seem to be the only reason that cases have not surged in the U.S. Trends in Covid hospitalizations typically lag case trends by only about a week. And hospitalizations have continued to fall in the U.S., to their lowest level in more than two years.

More at the link.

[Doc Sportello]

4. More good news, right?

Though it seems some don't want to hear it. We've had predictions of super spreader events for weeks or months now as things open up and they haven't happened. For the most part, people are going about their daily lives and interacting as they used to. I think it's time to get off the doom train and admit that, for the most part, things are much better.

[SoonerPride]

7. Some people seem addicted to fear.

If you a vaccinated and boosted then the pandemic is over. The risks of serious illness, long Covid, hospitalization, and death are infinitesimally small.

If you are not vaccinated, well, sucks to be you.

I have lost my capacity to worry about Covid anymore.

I pay attention to the news and do not bury my head in the sand.

The vaccines have worked and it is way past time to go back to living.

[Doc Sportello]

12. Well said

I began reading your posts on the subject and they use rational, fact-based points about the situation that led me to follow your example. Thanks for leading on this subject.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. 100% SoonerPride

This is where I've been at for a while too. If you are fully vaccinated and boosted, the metrics show that Covid is actually less a threat to you than the flu is. I'm not saying Covid is the flu, but if you're boosted, Covid isn't going to get you very sick, at least right now. I follow the CDC numbers on vaccinated vs unvaccinated hospitalizations and deaths, and the bottom line is that if you're boosted, serious illness is a tiny risk.

For the unvaccinated, 25% of the country, Covid is a huge threat and thousands more of them will die. But they made their choice, they can die with it.

There are still immune compromised people I care about, but they also have to be careful in flu season.

[Blues Heron]

8. I would hardly call the CDC reported numbers anecdotal

See for yourself, don’t take my word for it! NY, DC and Conn all doubled in the last three weeks - a steady climb up.

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases

[SoonerPride]

11. Small areas or pockets are not indicative of a nationwide trend.

There is no surge.

If there were it would have been evident by now.

Those are facts.

I provided you with the article and the evidence.

Have a great day.

[Blues Heron]

15. Tell that to the CDC

Their reported numbers show a doubling in DC, NY state and Conn over the last 3 weeks. That qualifies as a surge despite your talking point du jour.

We are seeing the results of spring break partying and a lack of masking.

[SoonerPride]

16. Oklahoma is averaging 65 cases a day

Oklahoma now only reports their numbers weekly. This was just released in the last hour.



As I said before anecdotal numbers are not evidence of a wider trend line.

There is no nationwide surge.

[Blues Heron]

17. you keep saying anecdotal - are you clear on the meaning of the word?

Anyway, the numbers don't lie. 100 percent surge in Conn NY and DC - that's just a fact. Cases have doubled in three weeks. Dispute the numbers with the CDC if you want - I just post them.

[Ace Rothstein]

30. A doubling of a smaller number of cases is not a surge.

Especially if it is drawn out over a month. Look at the case graphs for those states.

[SoonerPride]

32. Excellent point.

Thank you.

[Blues Heron]

33. You are free to interpret the doubling how you see fit, that's fine.

Just reporting the numbers as they appear on the CDC tracker. People can make up their own minds what they mean if anything.

[Zeitghost]

18. You claimed we were headed up a few weeks ago

And I challenged your assertion and pointed out that a small daily jump of a few hundred cases while we were holding steady at 29K-32K cases per day (rolling average using John Hopkins data) was not an indication of an upward trend. We are now steady at 26K-29K over the past week.


There is no indication of a nationwide climb up in cases.

[SoonerPride]

19. You won't get a reply

Some people on DU are addicted to fearmongering.

I don't get it.

But c'est la vie.

[Blues Heron]

21. just reporting the numbers thats all

Make of them what you wish.

[Celerity]

34. I was just told I don't care about 1 million dead because I stated I don't like one of the biggest

hyper-doom Twitter posters out there.

smdh

[Blues Heron]

20. Conn, NY and DC are all reporting a doubling from case rates 3 weeks ago

that is from the CDC, make of it what you wish.

[Zeitghost]

22. And I could point out even more areas

Where cases are down by even more, hence the nationwide downturn in cases on the whole. You're cherry picking numbers to support your false claim that things are getting worse when the numbers clearly show them getting better. Why that is, i'm not sure.

[Blues Heron]

23. It does have a tendency to spread

look at the UK right now. Anyway it behooves us to keep an eagle eye on the numbers to spot any trends - I happen to think a doubling of cases is not a good thing anywhere, you might disagree - thats up to you.

[Zeitghost]

24. Again with the Cherry Picking

You will always be able to find an area in the US where cases are trending upward, just like you can find areas where cases are trending downward.

The question is why do you continue to only focus on the ones that match the narrative you are trying to push while ignoring the larger trend down? Some might think you were being intentionally dishonest by using such tactics.

[Blues Heron]

25. it is one of the great mysteries of our time - why oh why are people interested

in the spread of a dangerous virus? Will we ever get the answer? Anyway, no biggie, be safe bro

[Zeitghost]

27. It's not your interest that causes the issue

It's the dishonest claims...

[Blues Heron]

28. like I said, be safe bro

[Zeitghost]

29. Good call

Scurry along...

[Johnny2X2X]

3. YEah

We basically let Omicron wash over the country this Winter, I wonder if that's the reason there isn't a surge right now, a ton of people just had Covid a few months ago and their natural immunity is still high.

[greenjar_01]

5. I saw a number of epidemiologists predicting just this result from BA2

Uptick in numbers but no big surge, largely owing to massive BA1 infection in Winter surge.

[Doc Sportello]

10. This may be one reason

From the article:
"What you're seeing in Europe may be resulting from the fact that they lifted their restrictions early, not so much that it's BA.2 that's there," he says.
Pekosz says many European countries dropped some precautions when there was already lot of virus circulating. He says cases in the US were coming down faster and fell farther before BA.2 outgrew its Omicron cousin here."

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Get boosted

I think the US is relatively over Covid for the time being, but we still aren't sure how immunity will last.

And if you're boosted right now, you're 97 times less likely to die of Covid than someone unvaccinated. For boosted people, Covid is not really a threat right now.

Maybe Covid will keep weakening and the next variants will be milder and milder compared to even Omicron. Could really just be another flu in time.

[Doc Sportello]

6. Even with a surge, hospitalizations and deaths are low

For the vaccinated. The anti-vaxers won't be convinced so they make the numbers worse. But if you're vaccinated and/or have had it, your chances of dying or becoming seriously ill from Covid are slim. And we have drugs coming to treat it. These are all good things.

[SoonerPride]

9. Good things indeed.

Thank you.

[liberal_mama]

26. Numbers are certainly going up in my county, and by a lot. No one even knows the actual count due

to home testing. We are at 8% positivity right now. It's not fear mongering. It's just what's actually happening in my area.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb was doing an interview yesterday and he said only about 1 in 8 cases are being counted due to home testing, people not testing, ect. So the actual numbers in my area could be very high.

I am still taking every precaution I can to avoid getting Covid.

[SoonerPride]

31. But wastewater tracking is not showing a national surge

And that isn’t reliant on testing of individuals at all.

Also hospitalizations which lag infections are continuing to trend downward.

[liberal_mama]

35. I am referring to the county that I live in

We always get slammed because of all the people who won't wear masks here.

In my immediate family of 12 people (not counting my antimask, antivax in-laws), we are all vaccinated and have all taken precautions and wore good masks whenever we are in an indoor building. One of my family members actually works had a Covid testing site, but wears a good mask and eye protection. None of us has gotten Covid except one.

Unfortunately my husband, was lax with his mask wearing. Meaning that he wasn't wearing it when he was at work or in stores. Of course, if I was with him shopping, he wore it, because he didn't want to hear me bitch at him.

Basically, he was like, "I'm vaccinated and even President Biden said if you are vaccinated, you can't get infected with Covid." I told him this was wrong. He hardly ever watches the news and he never does any research so he never knows what's actually going on. Probably like a lot of people. Also, he works a blue collar job and many of his coworkers are Trumpers and conspiracy theorists so I'm sure they were feeding him lots of misinformation all the time. One time, he was watching a video on YouTube about covid conspiracies and he said a coworker recommended it to him!

Sad to say he found out the hard way and had a bad Covid infection, despite being vaccinated and very healthy. I never saw anyone that sick in my life. He was literally crying and moaning with pain and he's a pretty tough guy. That was a few months ago and he's got a lot of lingering effects and terrible brain fog.

Maybe other areas don't get hit like Western New York does. I really don't look too much at wastewater tracking in other areas.

[Doc Sportello]

37. Waste water tracking and hospitalizations are the most accurate data

I'm not an expert but those numbers tell you, first, how much infection there is and, second, how severe the infection it is. As you pointed out, anecdotal input and selected data do not tell a comprehensive or an accurate view of the situation with Covid.

And while what's happened the past two years is terrible, folks we should celebrate this news. Especially with mid-terms coming up. This is an accomplishment for science and for the Democrats who have taken on this virus and been successful, and probably would have ended the pandemic were it not for idiot MAGATs.

[Initech]

36. My brother hasn't seen a COVID case in 3 weeks.

And his hospital system is now at the point where they can transfer people and that's something they haven't been able to do in the last 2 years.

[Shanti Shanti Shanti]

38. Local positive cases are up again, but hospitalizations are way, way, way down...getting weaker?