So many darn armchair quarterbacks!

[SmallFry]

And I love it. Why such negative thoughts toward armchair quarterbacks? I get it. I get it. The whole concept that only Geithner is qualified for the job! Only this person knows this! You aren't qualified!

Well let me tell you something, these Cheeto stains didn't manufacture themselves. This build up of cheesy goodness on my fingers(all over the place, really) happened as a direct result of my hardcore research and deep studies. I'm a more voracious reader than George Fucking Bush! To be honest, I also think I'm more qualified to talk about any topic over that of W.

So lets drop some predictions when it comes to Russia/Ukraine. Ohhhhh come on now. You aren't above it. Post after post is dripping with potential future actions or possibilities.

My prediction:

We have two or three more weeks of intense warfare. The world is going to continue to act shocked as Putin continues to do what Putin does. At this point, Putin mainly wants the Port city of Mariupol and areas around it. Putin will be successful in this endeavor. Ukraine will accept it. The world will accept it.

During the next couple of weeks Putin will continue to kidnap or kill leaders in certain areas he wants to be very Russian friendly. It will work in a number of places closer to the Russian border. Again, the world community will accept it. Ukraine, not so much. It will be an issue in the years ahead. It won't be something that brings about lasting war.

Putin will pull out of most of Ukraine while establishing a massive presence in and around Mariupol. They will become far less spread out and really focus on very specific areas. He will bring many of his troops home to parades and victory parties. He will claim he liberated Russians. Everyone will view this as the end of the war.

I actually feel pretty confident about what I just put forward. What I'm less confident about....

Will the US be able to keep the world sanctions in place? If not, they were never worth it in the first place. All sanctions must remain as long as Putin is in power. I wish I felt more confident we will be able to do this.

Does Putin assassinate Zelenski? Hasn't been able to yet and I think he has probably given it a pretty good effort. I think he missed his window of opportunity on that one. Needed to happen within the first weeks of the war. This is going to be a serious problem for Putin moving forward. If Putin is who I think he is, he will not game-plan the assassination. It will be a very personal decision. He is just going to try to do it in the final days of the war.

Get your predictions on. This forum is already rife with them they are just mainly one-offs. And why shouldn't it be, it's a discussion forum and I'm confident the average intelligence and knowledge about these events are much higher than the average public.

Mom!!! Bring me some more Cheetos!!! I'm in deep over here!!!

If you want to question my thought process when it comes to interjecting a bit of light commentary while also talking about extreme brutality, fair game. No one is rushing in to save Ukraine today, tomorrow, or next month. Putins history of brutality is long. There is simply nothing at all I'm seeing that is shocking. I can't view what is well known and historically established as shocking. Putin apologizing and pulling out would be shocking. Putin taking part in war crimes and extreme brutality is his lifes work and the norm.

[gab13by13]

1. Civilians being murdered, raped, and tortured is no joke.

I guarantee, this war will not be over in weeks, Ukraine is going to have to win on the battlefield.

[SmallFry]

3. So I'll put you down for a very long drawn out war.

“Civilians being murdered, raped, and tortured is no joke.”

No, it’s not.

[gab13by13]

2. Eat some Cheetos as you watch this;

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1513862803232333832%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.democraticunderground.com%2F100216586863

[SmallFry]

4. So sad.

The brutality of war.

I have your prediction down as a long and drawn out war.

[Tomconroy]

5. I give your post a B. Too much snark.

[SmallFry]

7. I think you might be grading on a curve.

And I appreciate it.

[Hekate]

13. I give it a C

[LakeArenal]

6. It's one thing too spend paragraphs on your opinion...

Another to think you know what others think from a seven words sentence.

“I have you down for prolonged war”.

You can backseat qb all you like.

But don’t assume you know what everyone thinks from their one sentence.

Some of us don’t need to pontificate on our “opinion”.

[SmallFry]

8. Not sure what you are talking about.

All good. No need for elaboration.

I understand the opinion you want to leave is based in your thoughts about me. I'm perfectly fine with that.

Onward and upward.

[LakeArenal]

9. Right back at you...

PS should I have wanted to elaborate, I wouldn’t needed your advice.

[SmallFry]

10. But my advice comes free....

And we seem to agree it was good advice.

Can't even deliver freebies anymore.

[Beastly Boy]

11. Something about your post that rubs me the wrong way

Maybe it's an impression of a bookie taking bets on how genocide may turn out.

Put me down for "I am not playing your game".

[Hekate]

14. The guy zipped thru 225 posts in 12 days, and it's all pretty much like this

[SmallFry]

17. Like what?

I will back any post of mine. Feel free to post some links.

I'll help you out. My last five ops. No cherrypicking. I ask people to please read what Hekate is talking about.

https://democraticunderground.com/100216584823

https://democraticunderground.com/100216584604

https://democraticunderground.com/100216583923

https://democraticunderground.com/100216584394

https://democraticunderground.com/100216583521

[SmallFry]

15. To be very honest, I don't believe you are "not playing my game."

We have all had thoughts of where this is going. Keeping said thoughts secret is not somehow positive behavior. It's not "higher ground." At all.

I doubt there is a single person on this board who hasn't thought personally about what direction the war is going, and taking the information they have gathered and made some form of a loose educated guess. I will go a step further than that, I will guess most of the replies acting like they are above it have "prediction" after "prediction" scattered all over this board when it comes to the war.

Lots of people acting like they are above an action they are taking party in daily. It's human nature. You have your thoughts. You are just unwilling to share them. That's not even close to the same as what you typed.

[Beastly Boy]

19. You are either in denial of what your game is or you are deliberately obfuscating.

Having thoughts on a subject is not your game. Expressing them is not your game. Even trolling for responses from neophytes is not your game.

Your game is trivializing a war. And regardless of what you believe, or what you want me to believe you believe, I am not playing your game.

[SmallFry]

20. Understood.

Seems a bit personal and void of any real thought, but understood.

[KPN]

12. WTF? That's all ...

[Lady Freedom Returns]

16. +1

[Irish_Dem]

18. Questions/comments:

1. Putin is changing the goals of the war now in light of his defeat in Kyiv? He is now only going for access to Ukraine's seaports?

2. I agree, it is unlikely the West will maintain long term sanctions against Russia. Too many western oligarchs losing money for this to work indefinitely. Money rules the world.

3. Do you think Putin will be successful in his attempt to assassinate Zelensky?
I agree, Putin has tried on a number of occasions to do so, but with no success so far. Why do you think Putin has failed to kill or capture Zelensky?

4. Putin's behavior is shocking but not surprising. Brutality and causing terror is his typical MO. That is why I have argued that he has not suddenly become a madman. He is just doing what he has always done. And always gets away with it.

5. Do you have any comments/predictions about China?