General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCould Texas go Blue? I'm watching Lawrence O'Donnell's show
from last night.
He had a report about what Abbott is doing with trucks at the border. He then had Beto O'Rourke on as a guest.
As a native Texas (who's lived in California most of my adult life - since 1988), I'm wondering if there's a chance?
What do Du'ers think?
Thanks!
jimfields33
(15,769 posts)Amishman
(5,555 posts)and given how much public conversation is going on right now on social issues such as LBGTQ rights, I'm not sure how that is going to go. While viewing hispanic voters as a monolithic block is not a good idea, there is definitely an overall trend towards religion (particularly catholicism) and less progressive on social issues.
Doubly concerning is that this dropoff was not well represented in 2020 pre-election polling
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback..
Liberal In Texas
(13,546 posts)This constant barrage of propaganda has taken its toll on listeners to regular English language radio over the years. It was only a question of when the RW would figure out that that would be how to get an edge in the Hispanic population vote.
Radio and TV control have been huge failings of the Democrats over the last 30 or 40 years.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)That's a bummer.....
For the life of me I can't understand why some of the wealthy progressives don't buy some radio stations................
LymphocyteLover
(5,643 posts)Nonstop lies and propaganda... it's so gross
JohnSJ
(92,136 posts)that trumps the bigotry against them
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Yep....That's an issue....
haele
(12,647 posts)They've made significant inroads in existing Hispanic communities due to a conflict between previous hard-line Catholicism that justified profiteering on one's neighbors and toxic masculinity, and the more liberal outlook of Pope Francis.
Not every Hispanic community will be reliable open borders/we're all one people voters when it comes to the needs of other Hispanic communities nor refugees. Especially ones who have been established in the US for decades with leadership that moves in GOP circles. They don't like to see themselves as being similar to the average Guatemalan or Panamanian refugee.
Haele
Haele
I
Elessar Zappa
(13,964 posts)Its the evangelical Hispanics who have drifted toward Republicans. Many Hispanics are converting to evangelical religion and voting Republican.
pinkstarburst
(1,327 posts)in south Texas and the Rio Grande valley and border policies have a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, Abbott's position is going to play a lot better than ours at the moment.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I see that's a major issue.....
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Yes. I'm starting to realize that's a real issue....
gab13by13
(21,304 posts)Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Yea, there is that.....
Diamond_Dog
(31,979 posts)Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Diamond_Dog
(31,979 posts)rownesheck
(2,343 posts)no. The state is too big with giant patches of area that are rural or ghost towns. Those areas are redder than red. I moved away from southeast Texas because I got tired of seeing confederate flags every fucking day. I got tired of hearing ignorant dipshits talk about the shit they talk about. Now, granted, I only moved 90 miles away, but at least the county I live in is blue. Still, though, it's Texas so there are ignorant dipshits here too, but certainly not as many. It's been 6 1/2 years since I moved and I've probably seen 3 confederate flags. That's an improvement at least.
Anyway, the sun will complete its life cycle before Texas turns blue.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thank for your feedback...I"m glad you're at least in a blue county....
greenjar_01
(6,477 posts)SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)...sigh.....
anarch
(6,535 posts)will we with this election cycle? I'm going to go with probably not; especially with the vote suppression tactics that the GOP has been rolling out, I think it's extremely unlikely.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback..
Lovie777
(12,232 posts)although miracles can happen.
P.S. that's something that majority of the "polls" don't factor in.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your input....
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)... I'm praying they make the impact they did in Georgia
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback....
Bettie
(16,089 posts)until that is dealt with, I doubt it.
But, I don't live in Texas, so I don't know what the word on the street is, so to speak.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Last edited Fri Apr 15, 2022, 01:14 PM - Edit history (1)
That's why I posted my question.
I wanted to hear what the word was on the street is. Since I'm from there, two of my very best childhood friends (we haven't hung out, obviously, since I moved to California in '88 but we kept in touch and would see each other every so often), are trumpsters. One because she's a evangelical and is majorily anti-choice (one of those real so-called 'pro-lifers"/anti-abortion types) and the other one because she's racist.
We simply don't speak anymore. We didn't have official "falling outs" but we've just moved away from each other (emotionally). I have NOTHING in common with them and they have nothing in common with me.....
Bettie
(16,089 posts)My one remaining friend from high school, known her since about the 6th grade. She's gone from apolitical to full on anti-vaxx MAGAt, mostly because her husband is.
I don't speak to her anymore. I also don't speak to my right wing brothers either because there is no point in banging my head against that particular brick wall. I have nothing in common with my brothers or with this former friend. The last straw was when she (former friend) told me I was stupid for being vaccinated, because it would "change my DNA". Whatever.
But, I honestly believe that Republicans are taking things too far. They are overshooting and I think (hope) that it will come back to bite them in the midterms. I would hope that women don't want to become second class citizens.
Iowa? Well, probably a lost cause for a while. I have more hope for Texas than this benighted state.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I'm especially sorry about your family members.
I also wonder if things have gone too far - but how many times have I thought that!!!
The recent arrest in Texas of the young woman for murder (and thank God she's been released) for the self-induced abortion is my BIGGEST EFFING FEAR!....
Will this make the complacent and the "I don't get involved/I don't care about politics" wake up? If they haven't woken up already it seems like nothing will....I just don't know...
I know very little about Iowa. I've thought it's pretty much a red state but I don't know any of the dynamics.
I just wish TX didn't have 40 Electoral votes.....
Celerity
(43,312 posts)which is becoming more conservative as evangelicalism is exploding with them.
The Democrats Hispanic Voter Problem
https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc?s=r
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback.
That's exactly what I'm seeing here with the various posts and what I've heard from the couple of friends I have who still live in Texas and are progressives.
Celerity
(43,312 posts)The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals
A new generation of Latino Protestants is poised to transform our religious and political landscapes.
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/latinos-will-determine-future-american-evangelicalism/619551/
In 2007, when Obe and Jacqueline Arellano were in their mid-20s, they moved from the suburbs of Chicago to Aurora, Illinois, with the dream of starting a church. They chose Aurora, a midsize city with about 200,000 residents, mostly because about 40 percent of its population is Latino. Obe, a first-generation Mexican American pastor, told me, We sensed God wanted us there. By 2010, the couple had planted a church, the Protestant term for starting a brand-new congregation. This summer, the Arellanos moved to Long Beach, California, to pastor at Light & Life Christian Fellowship, which has planted 20 churches in 20 years. Their story is at once singular and representative of national trends: Across the United States, more Latino pastors are founding churches than ever before, a trend that challenges conventional views of evangelicalism and could have massive implications for the future of American politics.
Latinos are leaving the Catholic Church and converting to evangelical Protestantism in increased numbers, and evangelical organizations are putting more energy and resources toward reaching potential Latino congregants. Latinos are the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the country, and Latino Protestants, in particular, have higher levels of religiositymeaning they tend to go to church, pray, and read the Bible more often than both Anglo Protestants and Latino Catholics, according to Mark Mulder, a sociology professor at Calvin University and a co-author of Latino Protestants in America. At the same time, a major demographic shift is under way. Arellano, who supports Light & Lifes Spanish-speaking campus, Luz y Vida, told me, By 2060, the Hispanic population in the United States is expected to grow from 60 million to over 110 million. None of this is lost on either Latino or Anglo evangelical leadership: They know they need to recruit and train Latino pastors if theyre going to achieve what Arellano describes as our vision to see that the kingdom of God will go forward and reach more people and get into every nook and cranny of society.
The stakes of intensified Latino evangelicalism are manifold, and they depend on what kind of evangelicalism prevails across the country. The term evangelical has become synonymous with a voting bloc of Anglo cultural conservatives, but in general theological terms, evangelicals are Christians who believe in the supremacy of the Bible and that they are compelled to spread its gospel. Some Christians who identify with the theological definition fit the political stereotype, but others dont. Thats true among evangelical Latino leaders toothey have very different interpretations of how the teachings of Jesus Christ call them to act. Every pastor I spoke with told me that they want to see more Latino pastors in leadership positions, and they each had a different take on what new Latino leadership could mean for the future of evangelicalism. When we spoke over the phone, Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and the pastor of New Season Worship, in Sacramento, California, told me, Were not extending our hand out, asking, Can you help us plant churches? Were coming to primarily white denominations and going, You all need our help. This is a flipping of the script.
Although Latino congregations are too diverse to characterize in shorthand, one of the few declarative statements that can be made about Latino Protestants is a fact borne out with numbers: They are likelier than Latino Catholics to vote Republican. The expansion of Latino evangelicalism bucks assumptions that Democrats and progressives will soon have a clear advantage as the white church declines and the Hispanic electorate rises. Some counterintuitive things that have happened [in our national politics] would make more sense if we better understood the faith communities that exist within Latinx Protestantism, Mulder told me over the phone, alluding to the differing perspectives Latinos hold on many issues, including immigration, and how more Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, Protestant affiliation correlated more with Hispanic approval of Trumps job in office than age or gender.
snip
excellent longform article, much more at the top link
In 2014, 11% of Latinos were Evangelicals.
Now, the latest numbers from Pew show it is up to 19% (in less that 7 years)
It is likely over 20% now and growing rapidly, driven by the younger gens,
less than half of Latinos in the US are now Catholic, which is pretty amazing
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/racial-and-ethnic-composition/latino/
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thank you so much for this post....
RussBLib
(9,006 posts)with the right messaging and candidates.
I'm not convinced that Beto is the right candidate to do it. Lt Gov is a big deal in Texas, and Beto could win with that ass Dan Patrick as Lt Gov.
And then you have the lopsided state House and state Senate.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your input.....
I'm actually disappointed that Beto is the candidate because my sense has been that he's too progressive for Texas. His "taking your guns away" comments seem to have been taken out of context which, as we know, can sometimes be an obstacle too big to overcome in some situations.
Midnight Writer
(21,745 posts)Last I saw, Abbott is well below 50% in polls, with a large number of undecideds.
Undecided voters when a long time incumbent is running is a warning sign to the incumbent. It shows that the voters who are familiar with him are looking around for an alternative. Undecided votes traditionally break towards the challenger.
I think Beto has a shot. He is a hard worker and he is campaigning in areas that the Republicans take for granted.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your perspective....
shrike3
(3,572 posts)Sorry to be cynical.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I welcome your true feelings/thoughts. That's why I posted. I feel quite cynical about TX EVER turning blue in my lifetime or maybe ever......I actually believe in miracles (and I do mean literally) so there's that. IMHO, it would need to be a miracle from The Universe....🙏
shrike3
(3,572 posts)They do exist.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Yes! Here's to miracles!
carrowsboy
(2,095 posts)BUT heavy GOP voter restrictions pretty much ensure a GOP dominance for awhile to come.
Thanks Manchin & Sinema
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback....
JohnSJ
(92,136 posts)if subsequent pollsters actually show a shift toward Beto, there may be some validty
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thank you for your perspective and feedback....
JohnSJ
(92,136 posts)Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I'm in California too but am from TX.
As someone else mentioned, they didn't know what the word on the street was and I don't either so that's why I posted....
The state has 40 Electoral Votes.......
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)It is a pipe dream unfortunately.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your input....
SoonerPride
(12,286 posts)Im happy to be a buzzkill anytime it happens to be true.
Hey as much as I want texas to go blue I see how many Rs there are and add to that open disenfranchisement and I see no path to democrats taking any power in texas.
By design.
Emile
(22,669 posts)that is the most politically and racially skewed maps in the country!
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)Emile
(22,669 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)How do gerrymandered districts affect the governors race?
Emile
(22,669 posts)I agree with the governor race, but how is the rest of the state turning blue?
jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)My reply to yours referenced a statewide race as well.
Emile
(22,669 posts)Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I'm wondering about Beto's chances at this time. Also, I'm wondering about the Electoral College's 40 votes....
Emile
(22,669 posts)all your wonderment?
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Actually, I have a much better sense thanks to what I'm reading.
Am I enlightened? No! However, I'm working on it since I don't want to reincarnate to Planet Earth! I want to go to a happier more loving place!!!
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback...
fmdaddio
(192 posts)Abbott is very unpopular right now so polling will show a closer race as many repugs do not want to answer the poll supporting him. I think Beto would be a great governor but he shot himself in the foot with his stance on guns. That might work in New York but not in Texas. Redistricting will not affect the governor's race but voter suppression efforts will. My reaction to the poll and level of undecided tells me that Abbott will win easily. Lawrence knows that but hr is just manufacturing a news hour.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I mentioned in another post that I wish Beto wasn't the candidate.
I think he's way too progressive for TX and the comments about guns (although I completely agree with him) have been taken out of context and along with other variables is probably too much to overcome.....
Torchlight
(3,327 posts)We're doing what we can and hoping for the best; at this point, my guess is our best-case scenario is about as locked in as a flip of the coin is.
The spirit of Anne Richards still lives in the party, and it looks like O'Rourke is the right man for the job who's earned the respect of many Texas Democrats.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your perspective...
SoCalDavidS
(9,998 posts)That's my opinion.
I think the Party would be better served, spending it's money elsewhere, than on races in places like TX or FL.
The QOP is not going to let the Democrats win in those states, and will do whatever it takes. Although it probably won't take much, because those states are Red States, NOT Purple, despite any appearances of us being close.
They're not really close, and you're not going to get a majority to vote for someone with a (D) next to their name. Beto would probably stand a fairly good chance of winning elsewhere, but not in TX.
hamsterjill
(15,220 posts)Only to be disappointed yet again. The redistricting is a factor, the border is a huge factor that Dems dont message enough about, Hispanics are voting against their own interests and Repukes are still the elite at instilling fear.
One day, I hope it happens.
eissa
(4,238 posts)I don't see it happening. The cities may have some blue spots, but the state overall is very red. Hispanic turnouts are usually unreliable, and the influx of conservative Californians isn't going to help.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)I'm in CA and I realize some of "our" wingnuts have moved to TX.
Is it considered to be really significant?
eissa
(4,238 posts)I've seen statistics of about 700,000 over the past several years. I'm in CA as well, and every family I know that's cashed out and moved there have done so for ideological reasons.
brooklynite
(94,502 posts)Greg Abbott won the 2018 election by 1.1 million votes.
Ted Cruz won the 2018 election by 220,000 votes.
John Cornyn won the 2020 election by 1.1 million votes.
Donald Trump won the 2020 election in Texas by 600,000.
Those are very large margins. Even a "close" (2-3%) race requires turnout a very large increase in voters.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your stats...
48656c6c6f20
(7,638 posts)Ass cysts to turn blue. A snowball in hell would be a better bet than a blue Texas.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback....
SYFROYH
(34,169 posts)I think many people assumed that Texans of Mexican descent would automatically vote Democratic and we've now seen how wrong that is even when the alternative is Trump.
Response to SYFROYH (Reply #34)
Post removed
RussBLib
(9,006 posts)if that were true, we would stop apprehending people crossing illegally.
If the border were "wide open" we would not be enforcing anything.
You are repeating a Republican talking point.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)That seems to be a MAJOR issue (one of many)...
former9thward
(31,981 posts)About 1 million Ds voted. That is a 2 to 1 advantage. Hard to overcome.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback.....
dsp3000
(483 posts)Too much corruption, gerrymandering and suppression even if the votes are there.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your input.....
edhopper
(33,570 posts)The GOP has made it so Dem votes don't count.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback....
edhopper
(33,570 posts)But the Roberts Court and a Manchin's obstruction has made so Democracy is in retreat.
JustAnotherGen
(31,810 posts)But if their ground game is good, and they have voter ID's locked down - I think he could win.
It may take those of us who can, to continue to donate to the organizations that are helping folks in restrictive punitive Jim Crow Voter ID states - donating.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your feedback.....
SKKY
(11,803 posts)40% are registered as Democrats
39% are registered as Republicans
21% are non-affiliated or Indipendent.
I mean, sure we have a chance, but we have to turn out the vote, especially the 18-25 set, like never before. Young people overwhelmingly vote Democrat, but they also turn out in way fewer numbers. If we can get a few more of them to stumble into a voting booth, we could do something.
But in heavily Hispanic communities, we are getting our clocks cleaned by the Republican presence on Spanish-speaking channels. And it's the same refrain over and over again, but it speaks loudly to them. "Democrats=Socialism. Chavez=Socialism. Maduro=Socialism. Castro=Socialism." If we don't figure out this Hispanic issue, we might be in for a very, very difficult time because that's the population with the largest growth.
Thank you for explaining it in those terms.
LeftInTX
(25,253 posts)California benefitted from the Immigration Act of 1986.
For some reason, Texas really didn't.
California has a much higher percentage of naturalized citizens or children of naturalized citizens than Texas, due to the Immigration Act of 1986.
The voting population in Texas is not particularly supportive of immigration, because they don't have a strong connection to it.
Although there is immigration, (both documented and undocumented) most immigrants are not eligible for US citizenship.
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Very interesting.
Thank you for this information.
I_have_a_cat_bite
(38 posts)I think people here care more about guns than a woman being arrested for murder over an abortion. We'll never win back the white vote. They are awful. I'm white and I know what my southern relatives are like. Catholicism is peeling away Latino support for Democrats over abortion.
When I voted recently, there was like 10 democrats and 50+ Republicans. Republicans also had over twice as many machines (and no masks). As stupid as it is, Critical Race Theory hysteria has overtaken the country. I'm worried it is a winning message. I think white people deeply resent the phrase "white privilege" and are out for blood over it. It looks bleak. I still have my Beto stickers, but he lost to Ted Cruise and said the thing about taking AR-15s away. I agree with him, but I don't think he can win here. If we do ever win here, it will probably be a do-nothing like Manchin.
LeftInTX
(25,253 posts)Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)That has been my feeling for years.
However, every fricken' cycle I kind of think that there might there might be a small chance......
I was just horrified when I heard the recording of the Texas Administrator who was facilitating a professional development day for teachers at a school in Texas and she told them that if they had a book in their library on the Holocaust they needed another book with an opposing view (or words to that effect).....
LymphocyteLover
(5,643 posts)organization, organization, organization
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Thanks for your input...
Texasgal
(17,045 posts)All of our large cities are BLUE. We've had a shitload of growth in these cities and many of them are from Blue states.
Your run of the mill republicans are disgusted by trump and his butt buddies.
We just need to GOTV!
Upthevibe
(8,038 posts)Well, as I mentioned in another post, I actually believe in miracles so there's that.....