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Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 08:54 AM Apr 2022

Could Texas go Blue? I'm watching Lawrence O'Donnell's show

from last night.

He had a report about what Abbott is doing with trucks at the border. He then had Beto O'Rourke on as a guest.

As a native Texas (who's lived in California most of my adult life - since 1988), I'm wondering if there's a chance?

What do Du'ers think?

Thanks!

103 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Could Texas go Blue? I'm watching Lawrence O'Donnell's show (Original Post) Upthevibe Apr 2022 OP
We need to get the Hispanics back especially in south Texas. jimfields33 Apr 2022 #1
This is my concern, eroding hispanic voter support was a big factor in our underperforming in 2020 Amishman Apr 2022 #7
Amishman.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #45
Apparently the RW is funding Spanish language radio Liberal In Texas Apr 2022 #12
Liberal In Texas.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #46
Yes-- 100%. It's a big reason Trump did as well as he did with Hispanics in 2020 LymphocyteLover Apr 2022 #95
I think the Hispanic vote is very split because of the Catholic influence on abortion, and for some, JohnSJ Apr 2022 #18
JohnSJ.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #47
Don't forget the growing RW "evilangelical" outreach focusing on masculinity and prosperity gospel. haele Apr 2022 #65
It's not the Hispanic Catholic vote that Dems are losing. Elessar Zappa Apr 2022 #81
we are losing the Hispanic vote badly pinkstarburst Apr 2022 #31
pinkstarburst..... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #48
jimfields33.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #43
In a fair election gab13by13 Apr 2022 #2
gab13by13... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #44
What is Abbott doing with trucks at the border? Diamond_Dog Apr 2022 #3
Diamond_Dog .... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #49
Thank you Diamond_Dog Apr 2022 #76
Uhh, rownesheck Apr 2022 #4
rownesheck... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #50
Visual depiction of the Beto segment on Lawrence greenjar_01 Apr 2022 #5
Exactly. SoonerPride Apr 2022 #20
The Charlie Brown & Lucy Football Analogy Applies To So Many Things In America These Days nt SoCalDavidS Apr 2022 #26
greenjar_01 Upthevibe Apr 2022 #52
could we? yes, definitely anarch Apr 2022 #6
anarch ....... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #53
Voter suppression by GQP makes sure that does not happen ... Lovie777 Apr 2022 #8
Lovie777.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #54
If Texas wasn't a dictatorship, the GOTv has to be enormous ... Stacy Abrams organization is there uponit7771 Apr 2022 #9
uponit7771... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #55
Too much voter suppression Bettie Apr 2022 #10
Bettie.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #56
Oh, I feel that Bettie Apr 2022 #61
Bettie.....It's so sad what's happening.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #66
Not anytime soon, especially as we are haemorrhaging badly with the the Hispanic vote, Celerity Apr 2022 #11
Celerity.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #57
The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals (Latinos) Celerity Apr 2022 #62
Celerity.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #64
it's possible RussBLib Apr 2022 #13
RussBLib.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #58
Like the barker at the fair says. "You cannot win if you do not play!" Midnight Writer Apr 2022 #14
Midnight Writer.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #59
I'll believe it when I see it. shrike3 Apr 2022 #15
shrike3.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #60
Here's to miracles. shrike3 Apr 2022 #79
shrike3...... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #99
Maybe a year or so ago... carrowsboy Apr 2022 #16
carrowsboy.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #63
With the voting suppression legislation in Texas and 20% undecided, I seriously doubt it. However, JohnSJ Apr 2022 #17
JohnSJ.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #67
Am in California so I really have no idea JohnSJ Apr 2022 #69
JohnSJ.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #71
Not in our lifetime SoonerPride Apr 2022 #19
SoonerPride..... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #68
You're welcome. SoonerPride Apr 2022 #78
Republicans have jerrymandered Texas with a craftsmanship Emile Apr 2022 #21
Dont see how that matters in a statewide race jcgoldie Apr 2022 #25
Seriously? Emile Apr 2022 #27
Yes seriously jcgoldie Apr 2022 #29
You like to explain how the state is going to turn blue? Emile Apr 2022 #36
The op is in reference to Abbott and O'Rourke jcgoldie Apr 2022 #40
The OP is about the state turning blue! Emile Apr 2022 #41
jcgoldie and Emile.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #72
Have you seen any enlightenment in Emile Apr 2022 #94
Emile,,,, Upthevibe Apr 2022 #100
Emile.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #70
No chance fmdaddio Apr 2022 #22
fmdaddio... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #74
Our fingers crossed Torchlight Apr 2022 #23
Torchlight......... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #75
Not A Chance SoCalDavidS Apr 2022 #24
I get my hopes up every election hamsterjill Apr 2022 #28
We've been hearing that for almost two decades eissa Apr 2022 #30
eissa.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #77
High enough to make a difference eissa Apr 2022 #90
People don't think of the scale of elections in Texas brooklynite Apr 2022 #32
brooklynite ... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #80
Texas has too many 48656c6c6f20 Apr 2022 #33
48656c6c6f20 .... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #83
It's possible, but we have to do a much better job recruiting Latino/a votes. SYFROYH Apr 2022 #34
Post removed Post removed Apr 2022 #35
we do not have an "open border" RussBLib Apr 2022 #51
SYFROYH.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #84
In the recent primary 2 million Rs voted. former9thward Apr 2022 #37
former9thward.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #85
Texas won't go blue in my lifetime. No matter how much we wish it to dsp3000 Apr 2022 #38
dsp3000.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #86
Nope edhopper Apr 2022 #39
edhopper.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #87
It's a sad state of affairs edhopper Apr 2022 #98
Not in Texas JustAnotherGen Apr 2022 #42
JustAnotherGen... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #88
It's like anywhere, if Democrats turn out, we usually do well. SKKY Apr 2022 #73
SKKY.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #89
Latinos are different than California's LeftInTX Apr 2022 #82
LeftInTX.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #91
I live in Texas I_have_a_cat_bite Apr 2022 #92
A do-nothing like Manchin would be a dream compared to what we have now! LeftInTX Apr 2022 #93
I_have_a_cat_bite..... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #101
if he can get a ton of non-voters out to vote, yes LymphocyteLover Apr 2022 #96
LymphocyteLover... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #102
I believe there is a chance! Texasgal Apr 2022 #97
Texasgal.... Upthevibe Apr 2022 #103

Amishman

(5,555 posts)
7. This is my concern, eroding hispanic voter support was a big factor in our underperforming in 2020
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:18 AM
Apr 2022

and given how much public conversation is going on right now on social issues such as LBGTQ rights, I'm not sure how that is going to go. While viewing hispanic voters as a monolithic block is not a good idea, there is definitely an overall trend towards religion (particularly catholicism) and less progressive on social issues.

Doubly concerning is that this dropoff was not well represented in 2020 pre-election polling

Liberal In Texas

(13,546 posts)
12. Apparently the RW is funding Spanish language radio
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:04 AM
Apr 2022

This constant barrage of propaganda has taken its toll on listeners to regular English language radio over the years. It was only a question of when the RW would figure out that that would be how to get an edge in the Hispanic population vote.

Radio and TV control have been huge failings of the Democrats over the last 30 or 40 years.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
46. Liberal In Texas....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 11:28 AM
Apr 2022

That's a bummer.....

For the life of me I can't understand why some of the wealthy progressives don't buy some radio stations................

LymphocyteLover

(5,643 posts)
95. Yes-- 100%. It's a big reason Trump did as well as he did with Hispanics in 2020
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 10:55 PM
Apr 2022

Nonstop lies and propaganda... it's so gross

JohnSJ

(92,136 posts)
18. I think the Hispanic vote is very split because of the Catholic influence on abortion, and for some,
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:36 AM
Apr 2022

that trumps the bigotry against them


haele

(12,647 posts)
65. Don't forget the growing RW "evilangelical" outreach focusing on masculinity and prosperity gospel.
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 12:26 PM
Apr 2022

They've made significant inroads in existing Hispanic communities due to a conflict between previous hard-line Catholicism that justified profiteering on one's neighbors and toxic masculinity, and the more liberal outlook of Pope Francis.

Not every Hispanic community will be reliable open borders/we're all one people voters when it comes to the needs of other Hispanic communities nor refugees. Especially ones who have been established in the US for decades with leadership that moves in GOP circles. They don't like to see themselves as being similar to the average Guatemalan or Panamanian refugee.

Haele


Haele
I

Elessar Zappa

(13,964 posts)
81. It's not the Hispanic Catholic vote that Dems are losing.
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:57 PM
Apr 2022

It’s the evangelical Hispanics who have drifted toward Republicans. Many Hispanics are converting to evangelical religion and voting Republican.

pinkstarburst

(1,327 posts)
31. we are losing the Hispanic vote badly
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 11:55 AM
Apr 2022

in south Texas and the Rio Grande valley and border policies have a lot to do with it. Unfortunately, Abbott's position is going to play a lot better than ours at the moment.

rownesheck

(2,343 posts)
4. Uhh,
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:04 AM
Apr 2022

no. The state is too big with giant patches of area that are rural or ghost towns. Those areas are redder than red. I moved away from southeast Texas because I got tired of seeing confederate flags every fucking day. I got tired of hearing ignorant dipshits talk about the shit they talk about. Now, granted, I only moved 90 miles away, but at least the county I live in is blue. Still, though, it's Texas so there are ignorant dipshits here too, but certainly not as many. It's been 6 1/2 years since I moved and I've probably seen 3 confederate flags. That's an improvement at least.

Anyway, the sun will complete its life cycle before Texas turns blue.

anarch

(6,535 posts)
6. could we? yes, definitely
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:12 AM
Apr 2022

will we with this election cycle? I'm going to go with probably not; especially with the vote suppression tactics that the GOP has been rolling out, I think it's extremely unlikely.

Lovie777

(12,232 posts)
8. Voter suppression by GQP makes sure that does not happen ...
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:50 AM
Apr 2022

although miracles can happen.

P.S. that's something that majority of the "polls" don't factor in.

uponit7771

(90,335 posts)
9. If Texas wasn't a dictatorship, the GOTv has to be enormous ... Stacy Abrams organization is there
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:52 AM
Apr 2022

... I'm praying they make the impact they did in Georgia

Bettie

(16,089 posts)
10. Too much voter suppression
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:56 AM
Apr 2022

until that is dealt with, I doubt it.

But, I don't live in Texas, so I don't know what the word on the street is, so to speak.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
56. Bettie....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 11:52 AM
Apr 2022

Last edited Fri Apr 15, 2022, 01:14 PM - Edit history (1)

That's why I posted my question.

I wanted to hear what the word was on the street is. Since I'm from there, two of my very best childhood friends (we haven't hung out, obviously, since I moved to California in '88 but we kept in touch and would see each other every so often), are trumpsters. One because she's a evangelical and is majorily anti-choice (one of those real so-called 'pro-lifers"/anti-abortion types) and the other one because she's racist.

We simply don't speak anymore. We didn't have official "falling outs" but we've just moved away from each other (emotionally). I have NOTHING in common with them and they have nothing in common with me.....

Bettie

(16,089 posts)
61. Oh, I feel that
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 12:12 PM
Apr 2022

My one remaining friend from high school, known her since about the 6th grade. She's gone from apolitical to full on anti-vaxx MAGAt, mostly because her husband is.

I don't speak to her anymore. I also don't speak to my right wing brothers either because there is no point in banging my head against that particular brick wall. I have nothing in common with my brothers or with this former friend. The last straw was when she (former friend) told me I was stupid for being vaccinated, because it would "change my DNA". Whatever.

But, I honestly believe that Republicans are taking things too far. They are overshooting and I think (hope) that it will come back to bite them in the midterms. I would hope that women don't want to become second class citizens.

Iowa? Well, probably a lost cause for a while. I have more hope for Texas than this benighted state.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
66. Bettie.....It's so sad what's happening....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 12:42 PM
Apr 2022

I'm especially sorry about your family members.

I also wonder if things have gone too far - but how many times have I thought that!!!

The recent arrest in Texas of the young woman for murder (and thank God she's been released) for the self-induced abortion is my BIGGEST EFFING FEAR!....

Will this make the complacent and the "I don't get involved/I don't care about politics" wake up? If they haven't woken up already it seems like nothing will....I just don't know...

I know very little about Iowa. I've thought it's pretty much a red state but I don't know any of the dynamics.

I just wish TX didn't have 40 Electoral votes.....

Celerity

(43,312 posts)
11. Not anytime soon, especially as we are haemorrhaging badly with the the Hispanic vote,
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 09:59 AM
Apr 2022

which is becoming more conservative as evangelicalism is exploding with them.

The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem

https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc?s=r

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
57. Celerity....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 11:56 AM
Apr 2022

Thanks for your feedback.

That's exactly what I'm seeing here with the various posts and what I've heard from the couple of friends I have who still live in Texas and are progressives.

Celerity

(43,312 posts)
62. The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals (Latinos)
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 12:14 PM
Apr 2022
for the first time ever in world history, a major group of Latinos (the US ones) are less than 50% Catholic

The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals

A new generation of Latino Protestants is poised to transform our religious and political landscapes.

https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/latinos-will-determine-future-american-evangelicalism/619551/



In 2007, when Obe and Jacqueline Arellano were in their mid-20s, they moved from the suburbs of Chicago to Aurora, Illinois, with the dream of starting a church. They chose Aurora, a midsize city with about 200,000 residents, mostly because about 40 percent of its population is Latino. Obe, a first-generation Mexican American pastor, told me, “We sensed God wanted us there.” By 2010, the couple had “planted a church,” the Protestant term for starting a brand-new congregation. This summer, the Arellanos moved to Long Beach, California, to pastor at Light & Life Christian Fellowship, which has planted 20 churches in 20 years. Their story is at once singular and representative of national trends: Across the United States, more Latino pastors are founding churches than ever before, a trend that challenges conventional views of evangelicalism and could have massive implications for the future of American politics.

Latinos are leaving the Catholic Church and converting to evangelical Protestantism in increased numbers, and evangelical organizations are putting more energy and resources toward reaching potential Latino congregants. Latinos are the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the country, and Latino Protestants, in particular, have higher levels of religiosity—meaning they tend to go to church, pray, and read the Bible more often than both Anglo Protestants and Latino Catholics, according to Mark Mulder, a sociology professor at Calvin University and a co-author of Latino Protestants in America. At the same time, a major demographic shift is under way. Arellano, who supports Light & Life’s Spanish-speaking campus, Luz y Vida, told me, “By 2060, the Hispanic population in the United States is expected to grow from 60 million to over 110 million.” None of this is lost on either Latino or Anglo evangelical leadership: They know they need to recruit and train Latino pastors if they’re going to achieve what Arellano describes as “our vision to see that the kingdom of God will go forward and reach more people and get into every nook and cranny of society.”

The stakes of intensified Latino evangelicalism are manifold, and they depend on what kind of evangelicalism prevails across the country. The term evangelical has become synonymous with a voting bloc of Anglo cultural conservatives, but in general theological terms, evangelicals are Christians who believe in the supremacy of the Bible and that they are compelled to spread its gospel. Some Christians who identify with the theological definition fit the political stereotype, but others don’t. That’s true among evangelical Latino leaders too—they have very different interpretations of how the teachings of Jesus Christ call them to act. Every pastor I spoke with told me that they want to see more Latino pastors in leadership positions, and they each had a different take on what new Latino leadership could mean for the future of evangelicalism. When we spoke over the phone, Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and the pastor of New Season Worship, in Sacramento, California, told me, “We’re not extending our hand out, asking, ‘Can you help us plant churches?’ We’re coming to primarily white denominations and going, ‘You all need our help.’ This is a flipping of the script.”

Although Latino congregations are too diverse to characterize in shorthand, one of the few declarative statements that can be made about Latino Protestants is a fact borne out with numbers: They are likelier than Latino Catholics to vote Republican. The expansion of Latino evangelicalism bucks assumptions that Democrats and progressives will soon have a clear advantage as the white church declines and the Hispanic electorate rises. “Some counterintuitive things that have happened [in our national politics] would make more sense if we better understood the faith communities that exist within Latinx Protestantism,” Mulder told me over the phone, alluding to the differing perspectives Latinos hold on many issues, including immigration, and how more Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, Protestant affiliation correlated more with Hispanic approval of Trump’s job in office than age or gender.

snip

excellent longform article, much more at the top link



In 2014, 11% of Latinos were Evangelicals.



Now, the latest numbers from Pew show it is up to 19% (in less that 7 years)

It is likely over 20% now and growing rapidly, driven by the younger gens,

less than half of Latinos in the US are now Catholic, which is pretty amazing


https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/racial-and-ethnic-composition/latino/


RussBLib

(9,006 posts)
13. it's possible
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:08 AM
Apr 2022

with the right messaging and candidates.

I'm not convinced that Beto is the right candidate to do it. Lt Gov is a big deal in Texas, and Beto could win with that ass Dan Patrick as Lt Gov.

And then you have the lopsided state House and state Senate.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
58. RussBLib....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 12:05 PM
Apr 2022

Thanks for your input.....

I'm actually disappointed that Beto is the candidate because my sense has been that he's too progressive for Texas. His "taking your guns away" comments seem to have been taken out of context which, as we know, can sometimes be an obstacle too big to overcome in some situations.

Midnight Writer

(21,745 posts)
14. Like the barker at the fair says. "You cannot win if you do not play!"
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:27 AM
Apr 2022

Last I saw, Abbott is well below 50% in polls, with a large number of undecideds.

Undecided voters when a long time incumbent is running is a warning sign to the incumbent. It shows that the voters who are familiar with him are looking around for an alternative. Undecided votes traditionally break towards the challenger.

I think Beto has a shot. He is a hard worker and he is campaigning in areas that the Republicans take for granted.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
60. shrike3....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 12:11 PM
Apr 2022

I welcome your true feelings/thoughts. That's why I posted. I feel quite cynical about TX EVER turning blue in my lifetime or maybe ever......I actually believe in miracles (and I do mean literally) so there's that. IMHO, it would need to be a miracle from The Universe....🙏

carrowsboy

(2,095 posts)
16. Maybe a year or so ago...
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:32 AM
Apr 2022

BUT heavy GOP voter restrictions pretty much ensure a GOP dominance for awhile to come.

Thanks Manchin & Sinema

JohnSJ

(92,136 posts)
17. With the voting suppression legislation in Texas and 20% undecided, I seriously doubt it. However,
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:33 AM
Apr 2022

if subsequent pollsters actually show a shift toward Beto, there may be some validty


Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
71. JohnSJ....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:03 PM
Apr 2022

I'm in California too but am from TX.

As someone else mentioned, they didn't know what the word on the street was and I don't either so that's why I posted....

The state has 40 Electoral Votes.......

SoonerPride

(12,286 posts)
78. You're welcome.
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:44 PM
Apr 2022

I’m happy to be a buzzkill anytime it happens to be true.

Hey as much as I want texas to go blue I see how many Rs there are and add to that open disenfranchisement and I see no path to democrats taking any power in texas.

By design.

Emile

(22,669 posts)
21. Republicans have jerrymandered Texas with a craftsmanship
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:43 AM
Apr 2022

that is the most politically and racially skewed maps in the country!

Emile

(22,669 posts)
36. You like to explain how the state is going to turn blue?
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 01:17 PM
Apr 2022

I agree with the governor race, but how is the rest of the state turning blue?

jcgoldie

(11,631 posts)
40. The op is in reference to Abbott and O'Rourke
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 01:59 PM
Apr 2022

My reply to yours referenced a “statewide race” as well.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
72. jcgoldie and Emile....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:11 PM
Apr 2022

I'm wondering about Beto's chances at this time. Also, I'm wondering about the Electoral College's 40 votes....

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
100. Emile,,,,
Fri Apr 15, 2022, 01:26 PM
Apr 2022

Actually, I have a much better sense thanks to what I'm reading.

Am I enlightened? No! However, I'm working on it since I don't want to reincarnate to Planet Earth! I want to go to a happier more loving place!!!

fmdaddio

(192 posts)
22. No chance
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:48 AM
Apr 2022

Abbott is very unpopular right now so polling will show a closer race as many repugs do not want to answer the poll supporting him. I think Beto would be a great governor but he shot himself in the foot with his stance on guns. That might work in New York but not in Texas. Redistricting will not affect the governor's race but voter suppression efforts will. My reaction to the poll and level of undecided tells me that Abbott will win easily. Lawrence knows that but hr is just manufacturing a news hour.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
74. fmdaddio...
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:20 PM
Apr 2022

I mentioned in another post that I wish Beto wasn't the candidate.

I think he's way too progressive for TX and the comments about guns (although I completely agree with him) have been taken out of context and along with other variables is probably too much to overcome.....

Torchlight

(3,327 posts)
23. Our fingers crossed
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:49 AM
Apr 2022

We're doing what we can and hoping for the best; at this point, my guess is our best-case scenario is about as locked in as a flip of the coin is.

The spirit of Anne Richards still lives in the party, and it looks like O'Rourke is the right man for the job who's earned the respect of many Texas Democrats.

SoCalDavidS

(9,998 posts)
24. Not A Chance
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 10:49 AM
Apr 2022

That's my opinion.

I think the Party would be better served, spending it's money elsewhere, than on races in places like TX or FL.

The QOP is not going to let the Democrats win in those states, and will do whatever it takes. Although it probably won't take much, because those states are Red States, NOT Purple, despite any appearances of us being close.

They're not really close, and you're not going to get a majority to vote for someone with a (D) next to their name. Beto would probably stand a fairly good chance of winning elsewhere, but not in TX.

hamsterjill

(15,220 posts)
28. I get my hopes up every election
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 11:20 AM
Apr 2022

Only to be disappointed yet again. The redistricting is a factor, the border is a huge factor that Dems don’t message enough about, Hispanics are voting against their own interests and Repukes are still the elite at instilling fear.

One day, I hope it happens.

eissa

(4,238 posts)
30. We've been hearing that for almost two decades
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 11:47 AM
Apr 2022

I don't see it happening. The cities may have some blue spots, but the state overall is very red. Hispanic turnouts are usually unreliable, and the influx of conservative Californians isn't going to help.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
77. eissa....
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:37 PM
Apr 2022

I'm in CA and I realize some of "our" wingnuts have moved to TX.

Is it considered to be really significant?

eissa

(4,238 posts)
90. High enough to make a difference
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 02:33 PM
Apr 2022

I've seen statistics of about 700,000 over the past several years. I'm in CA as well, and every family I know that's cashed out and moved there have done so for ideological reasons.

brooklynite

(94,502 posts)
32. People don't think of the scale of elections in Texas
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 12:02 PM
Apr 2022

Greg Abbott won the 2018 election by 1.1 million votes.

Ted Cruz won the 2018 election by 220,000 votes.

John Cornyn won the 2020 election by 1.1 million votes.

Donald Trump won the 2020 election in Texas by 600,000.

Those are very large margins. Even a "close" (2-3%) race requires turnout a very large increase in voters.

 

48656c6c6f20

(7,638 posts)
33. Texas has too many
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 12:38 PM
Apr 2022

Ass cysts to turn blue. A snowball in hell would be a better bet than a blue Texas.

SYFROYH

(34,169 posts)
34. It's possible, but we have to do a much better job recruiting Latino/a votes.
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 01:12 PM
Apr 2022

I think many people assumed that Texans of Mexican descent would automatically vote Democratic and we've now seen how wrong that is even when the alternative is Trump.

Response to SYFROYH (Reply #34)

RussBLib

(9,006 posts)
51. we do not have an "open border"
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 11:33 AM
Apr 2022

if that were true, we would stop apprehending people crossing illegally.

If the border were "wide open" we would not be enforcing anything.

You are repeating a Republican talking point.

former9thward

(31,981 posts)
37. In the recent primary 2 million Rs voted.
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 01:22 PM
Apr 2022

About 1 million Ds voted. That is a 2 to 1 advantage. Hard to overcome.

dsp3000

(483 posts)
38. Texas won't go blue in my lifetime. No matter how much we wish it to
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 01:42 PM
Apr 2022

Too much corruption, gerrymandering and suppression even if the votes are there.

edhopper

(33,570 posts)
98. It's a sad state of affairs
Fri Apr 15, 2022, 08:42 AM
Apr 2022

But the Roberts Court and a Manchin's obstruction has made so Democracy is in retreat.

JustAnotherGen

(31,810 posts)
42. Not in Texas
Wed Apr 13, 2022, 02:01 PM
Apr 2022

But if their ground game is good, and they have voter ID's locked down - I think he could win.

It may take those of us who can, to continue to donate to the organizations that are helping folks in restrictive punitive Jim Crow Voter ID states - donating.

SKKY

(11,803 posts)
73. It's like anywhere, if Democrats turn out, we usually do well.
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 01:15 PM
Apr 2022

40% are registered as Democrats
39% are registered as Republicans
21% are non-affiliated or Indipendent.

I mean, sure we have a chance, but we have to turn out the vote, especially the 18-25 set, like never before. Young people overwhelmingly vote Democrat, but they also turn out in way fewer numbers. If we can get a few more of them to stumble into a voting booth, we could do something.

But in heavily Hispanic communities, we are getting our clocks cleaned by the Republican presence on Spanish-speaking channels. And it's the same refrain over and over again, but it speaks loudly to them. "Democrats=Socialism. Chavez=Socialism. Maduro=Socialism. Castro=Socialism." If we don't figure out this Hispanic issue, we might be in for a very, very difficult time because that's the population with the largest growth.

LeftInTX

(25,253 posts)
82. Latinos are different than California's
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 02:00 PM
Apr 2022

California benefitted from the Immigration Act of 1986.
For some reason, Texas really didn't.
California has a much higher percentage of naturalized citizens or children of naturalized citizens than Texas, due to the Immigration Act of 1986.

The voting population in Texas is not particularly supportive of immigration, because they don't have a strong connection to it.

Although there is immigration, (both documented and undocumented) most immigrants are not eligible for US citizenship.

 
92. I live in Texas
Thu Apr 14, 2022, 02:55 PM
Apr 2022

I think people here care more about guns than a woman being arrested for murder over an abortion. We'll never win back the white vote. They are awful. I'm white and I know what my southern relatives are like. Catholicism is peeling away Latino support for Democrats over abortion.

When I voted recently, there was like 10 democrats and 50+ Republicans. Republicans also had over twice as many machines (and no masks). As stupid as it is, Critical Race Theory hysteria has overtaken the country. I'm worried it is a winning message. I think white people deeply resent the phrase "white privilege" and are out for blood over it. It looks bleak. I still have my Beto stickers, but he lost to Ted Cruise and said the thing about taking AR-15s away. I agree with him, but I don't think he can win here. If we do ever win here, it will probably be a do-nothing like Manchin.

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
101. I_have_a_cat_bite.....
Fri Apr 15, 2022, 01:38 PM
Apr 2022

That has been my feeling for years.

However, every fricken' cycle I kind of think that there might there might be a small chance......

I was just horrified when I heard the recording of the Texas Administrator who was facilitating a professional development day for teachers at a school in Texas and she told them that if they had a book in their library on the Holocaust they needed another book with an opposing view (or words to that effect).....

Texasgal

(17,045 posts)
97. I believe there is a chance!
Fri Apr 15, 2022, 12:05 AM
Apr 2022

All of our large cities are BLUE. We've had a shitload of growth in these cities and many of them are from Blue states.

Your run of the mill republicans are disgusted by trump and his butt buddies.

We just need to GOTV!

Upthevibe

(8,038 posts)
103. Texasgal....
Tue Apr 19, 2022, 09:47 AM
Apr 2022

Well, as I mentioned in another post, I actually believe in miracles so there's that.....

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