WTF Biden's poll numbers??!!

[cilla4progress]

33% in Quinnipiac?!

[Demsrule86]

1. Thanks for sharing...a big who cares.

I looked at this post and maybe a little snarky...not my intention...Biden is not up fo election at the moment. IMHO, he is the only one who can win the presidency in 2024 so let's hope for better news then.

[cilla4progress]

5. Don't mean to be inflammatory

and hope not taken that way...

Are you at all concerned about "coattails" for the midterms?

[dutch777]

32. It's really not coattails but everyone in power may get painted with the broad brush of blame for...

... inflation, supply chain issues, not enough/too much response to RU/Ukraine war, lingering Covid, CRT, on and on. And while marginal in their power legislatively, Dems could get lion's share of the blame and could well be in poor position for the mid-terms as a result. I think Biden has been prudent in his actions, and while he may well wish to take more action in many instances, there is little he can do in the short term or on his sole authority that will cure many of the pains the country is feeling. And if he takes the wrong actions, such as direct military action in Ukraine or wage and price freezes, he could well make bad situations worse. And although one can reason through that many things are not in the power of the Presidency or even of Congress to quickly remedy, many folks want someone to blame and to punish them and the election is an opportunity to do that, right or wrong. Something like a perfect storm and its headed right for our Dem ship I fear.

[cilla4progress]

46. Idiocracy

no doubt

Prescient ..

[BlackSkimmer]

6. We loved it here when tfg cratered in the polls.

We can’t have it both ways.

[Celerity]

26. hopefully this is an outlier poll, but the internals are horrific with Latino and younger voters

Latinos: 24% approve, 54% disapprove (30 points underwater)

18-34yo's: 21% approve, 58% disapprove (37 points underwater)

35-49yo's: 34% approve, 50% disapprove (16 points underwater)

50-64yo's: 34% approve, 58% disapprove (24 points underwater)



https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us04132022_upip76.pdf

[JohnSJ]

51. I think it is horrific for Latinos because of the abortion issue, and the influence of the church on

That demographic

What would be useful is an approval poll on Democrats in Congress, verses an approval poll on republicans in Congress

An approval on prospective Republican candidates who may run for president would also be insightful

This poll is not the full picture

[Celerity]

62. Also a 25% approval rating with indies equals a Red tsunami, so I TRULY hope this a a major outlier

Only a 62% approval rate with black voters also is very worrisome.

some more background on Latinos:

for the first time ever in world history, a major group of Latinos (the US ones) are less than 50% Catholic

The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals

A new generation of Latino Protestants is poised to transform our religious and political landscapes.

https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/latinos-will-determine-future-american-evangelicalism/619551/



In 2007, when Obe and Jacqueline Arellano were in their mid-20s, they moved from the suburbs of Chicago to Aurora, Illinois, with the dream of starting a church. They chose Aurora, a midsize city with about 200,000 residents, mostly because about 40 percent of its population is Latino. Obe, a first-generation Mexican American pastor, told me, “We sensed God wanted us there.” By 2010, the couple had “planted a church,” the Protestant term for starting a brand-new congregation. This summer, the Arellanos moved to Long Beach, California, to pastor at Light & Life Christian Fellowship, which has planted 20 churches in 20 years. Their story is at once singular and representative of national trends: Across the United States, more Latino pastors are founding churches than ever before, a trend that challenges conventional views of evangelicalism and could have massive implications for the future of American politics.

Latinos are leaving the Catholic Church and converting to evangelical Protestantism in increased numbers, and evangelical organizations are putting more energy and resources toward reaching potential Latino congregants. Latinos are the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the country, and Latino Protestants, in particular, have higher levels of religiosity—meaning they tend to go to church, pray, and read the Bible more often than both Anglo Protestants and Latino Catholics, according to Mark Mulder, a sociology professor at Calvin University and a co-author of Latino Protestants in America. At the same time, a major demographic shift is under way. Arellano, who supports Light & Life’s Spanish-speaking campus, Luz y Vida, told me, “By 2060, the Hispanic population in the United States is expected to grow from 60 million to over 110 million.” None of this is lost on either Latino or Anglo evangelical leadership: They know they need to recruit and train Latino pastors if they’re going to achieve what Arellano describes as “our vision to see that the kingdom of God will go forward and reach more people and get into every nook and cranny of society.”

The stakes of intensified Latino evangelicalism are manifold, and they depend on what kind of evangelicalism prevails across the country. The term evangelical has become synonymous with a voting bloc of Anglo cultural conservatives, but in general theological terms, evangelicals are Christians who believe in the supremacy of the Bible and that they are compelled to spread its gospel. Some Christians who identify with the theological definition fit the political stereotype, but others don’t. That’s true among evangelical Latino leaders too—they have very different interpretations of how the teachings of Jesus Christ call them to act. Every pastor I spoke with told me that they want to see more Latino pastors in leadership positions, and they each had a different take on what new Latino leadership could mean for the future of evangelicalism. When we spoke over the phone, Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and the pastor of New Season Worship, in Sacramento, California, told me, “We’re not extending our hand out, asking, ‘Can you help us plant churches?’ We’re coming to primarily white denominations and going, ‘You all need our help.’ This is a flipping of the script.”

Although Latino congregations are too diverse to characterize in shorthand, one of the few declarative statements that can be made about Latino Protestants is a fact borne out with numbers: They are likelier than Latino Catholics to vote Republican. The expansion of Latino evangelicalism bucks assumptions that Democrats and progressives will soon have a clear advantage as the white church declines and the Hispanic electorate rises. “Some counterintuitive things that have happened [in our national politics] would make more sense if we better understood the faith communities that exist within Latinx Protestantism,” Mulder told me over the phone, alluding to the differing perspectives Latinos hold on many issues, including immigration, and how more Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, Protestant affiliation correlated more with Hispanic approval of Trump’s job in office than age or gender.

snip

excellent longform article, much more at the top link



In 2014, 11% of Latinos were Evangelicals.



Now, the latest numbers from Pew show it is up to 19% (in less that 7 years)

It is likely over 20% now and growing rapidly, driven by the younger gens,

less than half of Latinos in the US are now Catholic, which is pretty amazing

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/racial-and-ethnic-composition/latino/

[JohnSJ]

63. No doubt. Biggest issue I think Democrats have is they don't push back on republican

characterization of them.

It should be no surprise what their midterm campaign against Democrats will be. “Democrats are weak on crime, the economy, high taxes, inflation, etc.”

Democrats really need to get off their butts and not only push back on that, but show what they have done, and what they want to do, and that the republicans absolutely stand for nothing, but enriching their personal pocketbooks at the expense of the American public

[Celerity]

64. I just posted this (sort of along this line) on another thread

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16605824

[Igirl]

72. My brother in laws family is Hispanic

First generation from Mexico.
They have completely changed their stance and are down on Biden. The kids were showing YouTube vids at Easter that are exerts when he looks confused. It was immigration that turned my brother in law. I try and reach them with our successes…

[brooklynite]

37. The reason you should care...

It doesn't matter if Biden isn't up for re-election. His popularity is a reflection of opinions about the Democratic Party in general. Very few voters are going to say they're unhappy with the President's performance, but they like the performance of the Democratic Congress.

[uponit7771]

45. Dem/Rep generics are nearly even. The narrative presidential poll numbers effect local elections ...

... isn't recent history.

Dems need a good stoke and GOTv movement, we'll see how that goes by end of July

[cilla4progress]

47. I am making my plans!

STOKED!

[brooklynite]

50. Generics being nearly even tend to be bad news for Democrats.

[Calista241]

65. Generics being even is always very, very bad news for the party in power.

[uponit7771]

67. +1, US polling stanks to high heaven and dem polling was noted as a problem in 2020. Hopefully

... we've fixed them and can have a truth based stoke of our own that will drive GOTv efforts.

[Novara]

2. I want to know who is responding to these polls and how the questions are phrased

And I want to know why the media will harp on this shit and not his accomplishments, which have been substantial.

[Demsrule86]

7. People on our side are trashing Biden...there is no other explanation for those numbers.

The student loan stuff, BBB ETC...he gets blamed for Congress being 50-50. You think some would have learned the loyalty lesson in 2000,2010,2014, and 2016. Give me the name of another candidate who can take the rustbelt...trick question...there isn't one. This means we lose. We have no other way to win. I am hoping that Fetterman wins the Senate this year and can run in 2028.

[Walleye]

19. An example is in a post about Sharpton referring to latte liberals

Democrats picking on Democrats is not helpful. It’s the right wing that has made liberal a bad word

[Bettie]

60. No one on our side is being amplified by the media

which is 24/7 "Here's why A-Z are bad for Biden and Democrats!"

Very little good is spoken of on any news outlet.

[Mme. Defarge]

27. Every poll I have been asked to participate in

on Biden’s job performance has ended with a request for a donation. Could that be a turn off?

[TreasonousBastard]

3. I buy it, but I don't understand it. Best I can come up with is the other side is much better at...

getting the public bent over gas prices than we are at getting bent over a billion bucks or so of rotting fruit at the Mexican border.

And gas prices are going down, just like we said they would.

[Claustrum]

12. It's kind of hard to argue that life is going the right way right now.

With high inflation, COVID is still a thing, Putin's aggression toward Ukraine, if I have to answer a poll question if I think the country is going in the right direction, I would definitely say no. Of course, as a critical thinking person, I know Biden isn't the one to be blamed for most of those things. Sadly, Americans are known to vote with how their own wallets are (It's always the economy, stupid) rather than how things actually work in the world. So they mistakenly place the blame on Biden/democrats.

[cilla4progress]

29. You say this, and I dont know how it's going

Where you live...

But where I live people are out and about in a way they haven't been since March 2020!

Some are masked; enjoying and living life anew.

[Claustrum]

31. Yeah. COVID is definitely way better than it was back in 2020.

And having vaccines alone helped ease most of my worries. But until we are "done" with COVID, the possibility that a worst variant (more deadly) could pop up and we have to get back into more restrictions are still there.

[cilla4progress]

33. We may be done with COVID,

But it's not - and never will be - done with us!

Viruses > humans

[Claustrum]

35. Yeah. But if we have a year or 2 with different variants continually weaken

(like the difference of Delta and Omicron), we could be more confident that COVID risk is going down. But that takes time to see it pan out. Pandemic and virus risk do go down and eventually go away as their variants weaken and become less risky/dangerous.

[cilla4progress]

49. Ahhh...

thanks for the info!

(disclaimer: not a virologist! My only knowledge is what I learn from other!)

[sop]

4. Steve Kornacki was extremely animated while reporting these numbers at his "big board."

[Demsrule86]

16. This is why I don't watch MSNBC.

[Budi]

8. They didn't predict Biden to win the Primary much less the Presidency by 80 million votes either...

Pollsters & Media have destroyed their once reliable institutions.
$$$$$$$.
Oh ya, and everybody has a PAC protected from prying FEC eyes.

[former9thward]

71. Polls predicted Biden winning the primary.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

Polls do not predict the exact number of votes in the general election. They predict who is going to win and by what percentage. They did in the 2020 General election.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[smirkymonkey]

9. Just for the record, I have never, ever been polled on presidential approval in my

life. And I have always lived in very blue neighborhoods, in blue cities and in blue states. Just noticing.

[JohnSJ]

41. Just for the record, I will not answer any phone calls from an unknown number via caller ID

[Cuthbert Allgood]

78. Just for the record, based on sampling and how many are needed for a nationwide litmus

you would likely never be polled.

[doc03]

10. Let's be honest here at this time it looks like

this year will be a shellacing. A couple Democrats killed off the issues Biden ran on. In addition 15 months have gone by and no January 6th hearings. What started out to be early January is now maybe June.

[SoonerPride]

11. Inflation inflation inflation

Repeated ad nauseum on the news.

People feel the pinch an blame Biden.

Whether that is fair or not isn't the point.

It is driving his support into the ground.

[doc03]

13. It's only going to get worse since China is in lockdown

again. Then there is Ukraine.

[SoonerPride]

15. And Gov Abbot screwing up supply lines on purpose

It's a real thing and not going to ease anytime soon.

[Amishman]

30. agreed, the public is stupid and short sighted. They're hurting, Joe's president.

4% raise doesn't help when inflation is pushing 8%.

People's wallets are hurting, and they blame whoever is in power. They don't consider if the cause is the Fed mismanaging the financial markets, Russia, corporate greed, or the underpants gnomes.

We need things to turn around fast, otherwise November will have us on the ass end of an ass kicking.

[uponit7771]

43. Then there needs to be a counter message not just let disinformation sit in the air. The YoY wage ..

... increase was 5.6% !!!

The increase in prices aren't organic due to corp profit *MARGINS* the highest in 70 years.

[GoCubsGo]

14. It's an outlier.

All the other polls I have seen have Biden in the 40s. Which isn't great, but when the MSM is incessantly screeching about inflation and gas prices, without pointing out things like record corporate profits, price gouging, and the pandemic, it's not surprising that his numbers have deteriorated.

[uponit7771]

44. +1,

[Polybius]

58. While true, most aren't just in the 40's, but low 40's

That's no better than where Trump was in April, 2018.

[SmallFry]

17. Got Milk? NT

[Budi]

18. Media Propaganda- " We will tell you how to think"

Hitler' chief propaganda messenger, Joseph Goebbels. ~

Who's been pounding this message since 2016? The very same people who support the destruction of Democracies around the world.
They want one big fatcat party global rule.

You're either with Democracy or you're with Authoritarian rule
There are no other choices left.

The fact that they can be this relentless in convincing voters that Biden is somehow the bad guy, is straight from the playbook of Adolph Hitler.

And just look who's gone all-in on moving that same message since 2016.
They are no longer hard to spot in the crowd.

[Chainfire]

20. The Right wing blame game is working

If anything is not going perfectly in your life today, they will blame it on Biden. I truly believe that the Republicans are intentionally creating problems to blame on the President. Apparently it is even effective on a large number of people who voted for Biden. When you control the message, you control the population.

[helpisontheway]

21. Yeah..it is pretty bad. Several of my family members (always democrats)

have turned on Biden. I was just back home visiting family out of state. The inflation, gas and lack of workers in service jobs are hurting Biden. One of my family members (that benefited from the money) said Biden gave away to much money. Also, Biden was hurt by Afghanistan. That was the first hit and then things got worse. There is no universe in which I would ever vote for a Republican. However, I was concerned by the things I heard while visiting my family. It is extremely unlikely that Biden could turn this around and win again. I mean his numbers are extremely low. Hell there were polls that had him losing to Trump (ya know the ringleader of the insurrection). I’m getting the hell out of here if that happens. Anyway, Biden should just continue to do the best he can to improve this country until his final days in office. Then we have to buckle down because we are in for some hard years due to people not voting or falling for republican bs. As far as my family I think they will always vote for the democrats (and they always vote) but they will not be happy when voting for Biden. They blame him for everything because of media spin.

[Walleye]

23. Keep in mind that Joe has never lost in a general election

[Mariana]

34. " ... and lack of workers in service jobs ... "

Wait, they're upset that unemployment is so low that many workers are finding better opportunities than shitty low-wage "service jobs"? How can anyone think this is a bad thing?

[Walleye]

22. The media have predicted that we are going to get creamed in the midterms.

They are determined to see that their predictions come true one way or the other

[BlueJac]

24. Nonsense!

[FloridaBlues]

25. This poll is outlier look at average of polls he sits around 43-44%.

Prices are inching their way down. If media covers this.

[Polybius]

59. According to FiveThirtyEight, his average as of today is 41.8%

That's horrific.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[aeromanKC]

28. News Media: Mission Accomplished

[brooklynite]

36. Quinnipiac College conducted an opinion survey, as they have for years.

The media reported the survey as they have for years. Its called "news".

[Beautiful Disaster]

40. You don't think the media can shape the narrative that is then reflected in poll numbers?

It's naive to think that the media doesn't have control over perception.

If the media spends weeks telling voters how bad everything is, and how it's largely Biden's fault, it absolutely will be reflected in polling.

[brooklynite]

48. There's enough reality to the electorate's sour mood;

Inflation
School disruptions due to COVID
Economic anxiety
Disappearance of child-care and COVID credits

The media didn't make these up.

[Beautiful Disaster]

66. And yet - how much of that is Biden's fault?

Nearly none of it.

But the media's constant tying it to Biden is a problem. It's Biden's Problem and that has been the narrative since the start.

The fact is: Inflation is up all over the world. It's about as high in the UK as it is in the United States. Surely that isn't Biden's fault, right?

The media can absolutely do a better job with transparency but frequently they like to play a game where they focus in on the bad news and briefly only mention the good news, which would explain why a huge chunk of the country feels we're actually losing jobs - not gaining.

Biden will get the lion's share of the blame but a more truthful media that isn't built on sensationalism would absolutely help.

[brooklynite]

74. Doesn't matter who's FAULT it is; it matters who voters blame.

To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld: "You go to the election with the voters you have"

[Beautiful Disaster]

76. You're missing the point.

Your initial post dismissed the assumption the media plays a role in who the voters blame. If we had an honest media, the blame would be more understanding across all avenues. But instead we have a media whose narrative is to shift the blame to Biden, and constantly ask how this or that will hurt him, only reinforcing the thought that he is deserving of the blame.

France is seeing its highest inflation since the early 1980s, and while I'm sure some blame Macron, it's unlikely to cause him a reelection loss THIS YEAR. I wonder why? Maybe because their media is actually transparent and not focused on ginning up ratings like the media in the US.

[brooklynite]

79. No, you're missing mine...

The allegation ("mission accomplished&quot suggested that there was INTENT on the part of mainstream media to discourage voting for Biden and the Democrats. That's one of the many "they're out to get us" conspiracy theories I hear constantly, notwithstanding the fact that DNC pollsters and strategists say exactly the same thing.

As for France: yes, Macron will likely win, because the one alternative (Le Pen) is so extreme. But the fact that Le Pen did as well as she did in round one says something about how French voters feel about inflation, immigration and other matters. nb: France has prohibitions on reporting polls in the last two weeks of a campaign. We have the First Amendment. I'll take freedom of speech any day.

[Beautiful Disaster]

83. Evidence suggests there is intent.

You're free to turn your head to it but it's clear the media is perfectly fine framing a narrative that hurts Biden the most. The media is perfectly fine framing the issue as an issue for Biden, and constantly hammering him on it, despite a significant amount of inflation being out of his hands as it is a WORLD PROBLEM. It's pretty blatant.

As for Macron, I think you just proved my point. Here in the US, with our freedom of speech and greatness, if the election were held today between Biden and Trump, it's possible Trump wins, and certainly does better than La Pen, despite being similarly extreme. Why? Because our media is a joke and focuses on sensationalism, even when reporting important stories, as opposed to just reporting the facts.

Not everything has to be framed around how this negatively hurts Biden and the Democrats. It's not productive and it builds a narrative that they're to blame.

Especially when they don't report the full story and add growing context to the overall crisis WORLDWIDE.

And that's all I am going to say on that matter. It's clear the media is intent on leveling Biden as much as possible. I think even a blind person could see that. Why? Well that we can debate (whether it's just to gin up ratings or to push a Republican narrative, as I'm certain is the case with FOX News, who knows?). But there is no debate on whether it's happening. Because it is.

Have a good one.

[SWBTATTReg]

38. Personally, I call this (Pres. Biden's supposed low poll numbers) a result of trump burnout.

Seems like every time we turn around, tRump this, tRump that, tRump, tRump, tRump! I want to throw up.

It's nothing against Pres. Biden at all, it's an anti-tRump backlash if you ask me. Give us all a break, and I will think people will be pleasantly surprised when the voting counts, and the numbers come in, they will still be against tRump but more firmly so, after all, we are all sick and tired of hearing about grift number 1, steal number 2, rip off number 3, kushner/ivanka $2 billion dollar payoff number 4, and on and on and on.

[Claustrum]

52. What? So if I hate TFG, I hate Biden too and bring down his poll numbers?

I could understand for people who are not political and just turn off any news about politics. But those people mostly don't care about your numbers 1-4. They just want nothing to do with politics.

But if you are someone who care about your numbers 1-4, I bet they are voting for and support Biden/democrats.

I am extremely tired of politics and most of the right wing noise. That's why I turned off my cable news for almost 2 years now. And I care about your numbers 1-4. But you can be sure that I will vote in the midterms for democrats so the people that I don't want to hear from won't be taking charge in government.

[JohnSJ]

42. It would be interesting to see the poll numbers for the possible leading republican candidates for

President

What are the approval numbers for the Democrats in Congress?

What are the approval numbers for the republicans in in Congress?

Give me the full picture

[cilla4progress]

54. Good point.

Don't got em at hand...

[JohnSJ]

57. I don't know off hand either, but I suspect they wouldn't be great either

[Polybius]

61. They are no better

When both candidates have high negatives, it's a coin-toss (see 2016). In 2020, Biden's approval was over 50%. Trump at the time was low 40's.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

53. QPac seems to be a big outlier from the others.

Most other polls have Biden from 41-44 or so.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

55. Have to agree with those who call this an outlier

Most polls have him in the 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo

[JI7]

56. Inflation and Crime

[Aepps22]

68. Reality

I think Biden's poll numbers are just a reflection of the hyper partisan environment we're in so I say we use these polls to redouble our efforts on GOTV and telling others how great Biden has been doing. 56% of Republicans think the insurrection was an act of Patriotism so I don't panic too much. Based on polls Joe should've won in a landslide which didn't happen. People not polls vote and we still have time before the midterms to turn things around.

[Initech]

69. The scumbags will use the gas prices to their advantage in the midterms.

[albacore]

70. Just fucking great!

I got old.... too old to do the actual footwork in the upcoming Civil War for America.
The abortion struggle.... the "culture war"....shit... even the upcoming shooting festivities..
All I can do now is give money to good candidates and work some phones.

Actually, I'm glad I'm old and won't live to see the clusterfuck this country will be if those toads take over.

[budkin]

73. Inflation + War + COVID

Biden is President so he takes the blame, even if he's not responsible.

[LudwigPastorius]

75. James Carville said it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-highest-40-years/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_biden_job_approval_economy-7321.html

Whether it is justified, or not, the president always gets the hammering if prices start to rise.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

77. 2/3rds of people are unhappy no matter who is in charge

I feel like 70% of us are Democrats, no matter what happens....

[AntiFascist]

80. Not that I'm qualified as an armchair general, but...

I would bet that bringing about a relatively quick and decisive end to the Ukrainian conflict would do wonders for Biden's poll numbers, and he would then be able to focus more attention on domestic issues. Easier said than done, I realize.

[Bonx]

81. I feel like they will go up soon. People are figuring out he's actually doing a great job.

[diehardblue]

82. I believe the polls are rigged and are not a true picture of the opinions of

the major population. If the notion that he is a failing president, fed daily by the media, is allowed to be presented daily, the masses will soon believe it and want to replace him. Screw the polls!