Russia's military goals now:

[Tomconroy]

Link to tweet

This means they intend to assault Odessa.

[Chainfire]

1. Even if you are a Russian optimist, you have to know that taking and holding are two

different things. The only way they will be able to take, hold and utilize the areas in peace would be to beat the entire population of the country into submission. I don't think that the Russians are capable of that. Ukrainians won't forget what Russia has done to them for a dozen generations. Not matter the outcome of the battles, Russia loses more than it gains.

Lets see if Russia can live with being isolated from the world community for that long. We have entered an age where warfare is not limited to physical battlefields.

[Lovie777]

2. Retrieving mercenaries and Russian soldiers from Mariupol is any indication . ...

Russia has and will continue to have a tough time reaching their goals.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. That means an effective annexation of part of Moldova too, and taking all of Ukraine's coastline

The 'rebel' Transnistrian part of Moldova currently has Russian "peacekeeping" troops, which are there to keep Moldovan troops out. If there's any "oppression" going on there, it's by the Russian ally regime.

This is full-on old-fashioned imperialism, and wanting to make Ukraine permanently weak, even if it holds on to central Ukraine. Ukraine would have no option but to join the EU as fast as possible, because it would need export routes not dependent on the sociopath next door.

I think they'd have a hard time of it, though - the sinking of the Moskva shows the Ukrainians can defend a shoreline (their shoreline around the Sea of Azov was always harder for them to defend in the first few days, and the Russian army got there quickly; the Black Sea shore proper is where they had to withdraw ships after the Moskva was sunk. And they stalled on advancing west from Kherson.