US, allies promise Ukraine arms amid Russian nuclear warning

[Sherman A1]

The United States and its allies have pledged new packages of ever heavier weapons for Ukraine during a meeting at a German air base, brushing off a threat from Moscow that their support for Kyiv could lead to nuclear war.

US officials have switched emphasis this week from speaking mainly about helping Ukraine defend itself, to bolder talk of a Ukrainian victory that would weaken Russia's ability to threaten its neighbours.

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest allies, Nikolai Patrushev, said Ukraine was spiralling towards a collapse into "several states" due to what he cast as a US attempt to use Kyiv to undermine Russia.

The comments seemed to be an effort to blame Washington for any break-up of Ukraine that emerges from the war, now in its third month.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2022/0426/1294306-ukraine-russia/

[WarGamer]

1. I think the upcoming Eastern Offensive will forecast the end of this all...

If Ukraine can take back territory in the Donetsk/Luhansk regions... it will effectively end the Russian invasion.

If Russia encircles the Ukrainian defenders and destroys them, it guarantees a broken-up Ukraine.

We'll have a much better sense of the situation a month from now.

[Sherman A1]

2. My bets are on Ukraine

The Russians don’t seem to be able to generate much momentum. There’s lots of them, but having an army with low morale and no plan seems to be taking it’s toll.

[WarGamer]

3. I tend to agree.

No/poor strategy, low effort...no real commitment... just can't see them successfully executing some WW2 style encirclement and destruction.

[EndlessWire]

4. I think the South is key.

Putin is going after Odesa, and he will use Transnistria as part of it. That involves Moldova, who is a separate country, and NOT part of Romania. Because they already have troops there, they will think that it will work out for them, but it won't.

We have hit yet another crossroad. Russia may suddenly find itself fighting to retain Crimea, instead of the Donbas. Crimea is worth more than the Donbas, IMO. But, I don't know about industry, etc. That port of Mariupol is very strategic and important, even if flattened.

As far as undermining Russia--well, duh! Can't be any plainer when Biden tells them he wants to see Russia weakened. It is not a coincidence that all of a sudden Russia's infrastructure (all military targets) is being hit. This includes Transnistria, because of those embedded troops. Knocking off those troops will help immensely in defense of Odesa.

Putin appears to want to commit suicide. And, Ukraine will not be divided. The pendulum of the war is swinging. As was pointed out today by pundits, all Putin has to do to end the war and save face is to simply leave Ukraine. Ukraine is not spiraling towards any collapse; Russia is the one spinning his wheels because of general incompetence.