Have Republicans miscalculated political impact of January 6th coup attempt?

[kentuck]

I do believe that Kevin McCarthy was persuaded by Donald Trump that people would forget all about the coup, just as they forgot about all the other crimes he committed and the previous impeachment. There was plenty of time until the next election and by then, the coup attempt would be buried and forgotten.

But, in my opinion, if they are wrong, the midterm elections could be a shattering defeat for them. In normal times, the minority almost always picks up seats, commensurate with the state of the economy. However, this time, the voters might have a different idea?

Especially, since the coup attempt is about ready to take center stage in the next few weeks. We don't know what information will come out and we don't know how people might react? If it is shown in the starkest terms how the former President and the Republican Party tried to overthrow an election and keep the former dictator-wannabe in power, it may not reflect as favorably on the GOP as they now think?

When the people see how close they came to losing their democracy, I do not believe they will reward the insurrectionist Republicans, regardless of where the economy is at this time.

Just my opinion.

[Historic NY]

1. When the live hearings start the howling will start

Those that are avoiding the subpoena might regret it.

[LonePirate]

3. Nope. They are making a gamble that apathetic Americans will do nothing.

That gamble will likely pay off.

We here at DU along with many others on the left want justice and want protections put in place so that we don't experience another J6. However, our side is not enough to bring about these tings.

The bulk of the people in the middle 60% of the country largely does not care and/or has moved on with their lives. If change happens, they would be fine with it. If nothing happens, they won't mind.

Meanwhile, the right is doing everything possible to memory hole J6 and will likely get off free due to DoJ's refusal to go after the big names.

So, no, Republicans have not miscalculated here.

[uponit7771]

16. +1, which is why the DOJ will have to take action to give the the hearings credibility. Without DOJ

... action who cares what a bunch of partisans think but polling shows serious arrest or allegations highly affect both dem and rep choices of pols.

[Skittles]

20. yup

they care more about gas and grocery prices than direct threats to democracy

[Thomas Hurt]

4. You would hope so, but can it overcome the cultist base, citizen apathy, gerrymandering...

and the rash of voter intimidation, infiltration of election offices, and the voter suppression efforts of the christofascists?

[gab13by13]

5. Before I answer,

are we assuming a fair election?

[gulliver]

7. We need to do more to neutralize their wedge issues to put January 6th center stage

I hope we can do that. We shouldn't allow would be Republican voters any conscience-squelching reasons to look away from the attempted coup and how it jeopardizes us all. Focus on how the Republican destabilization of our country by a noisy mob of rotten-minded clowns could jeopardize our country's prosperity and peace. They're not just rocking the boat; they're trying to capsize it in a time when most Americans would love to get some sense of normality back.

[gab13by13]

8. It is a choice

between keeping democracy and the Constitution or not. It's that simple, let's not complicate it.

Do Magats really believe they will get more freedom living in an autocracy, in a dictatorship?

[MineralMan]

9. The timing of the House committee hearings is spot on.

Had it been done earlier, there would have been time for people to forget just how horrible it all was. Now, instead, they'll be reminded of that during the summer months before the midterms.

Other shoes are likely to fall, as well, prior to the November election. It will make an enormous difference in the outcome, I believe. It's not going to affect the 25% or so of voters who are hopelessly attached to the Trump big lie, but it will markedly affect the rest of the voting population, and in ways we are not really anticipating right now.

Timing matters. It matters very, very much.

[Hoyt]

10. I think most people have made up their minds, UNLESS there is some new HARD evidence.

I hope we have a lot more than some GOPer Rep texted, "Use very legal and constitutional means to keep trump in office."

Right now a Democratic Rep is hyping the June hearings with evidence like, "Meadows was calling Hannitty and asking him to remind people to vote because we need every vote." Sorry, it's going to take a lot more than that. I suspect/hope Democrats will be calling CNN, MSNBC, etc., making the same request as we approach November.

If that is all we have, the backlash will likely be immense in midterms. Our base will vote Democratic, their base will vote GOPer, and the 5-10% of "Independents" will skew toward GOPers. Now, if all the Reps, investigative reporters, criminal investigators, etc., have something that has not leaked out, it might be different. Not counting on that.



This is from October 2021. The poll question sucks, but think it pretty much indicates how people feel about the investigation.

[867-5309.]

11. Great post

If the hearings are a rehash of what we know I can't see them getting us any traction. The question could become "you're the majority party, why are you still spending time on this?"

That's my fear, anyway.

[Quixote1818]

18. They should have left out Nancy Pelosi's name off that poll. For anyone Conservative, they will have

a knee jerk negative reaction immediately.

[Hoyt]

19. Agree completely. I said the question sucked. But I think extrapolating it

to early May would yield similar, maybe more ominous, results.

But, maybe the Select Committee will surprise me and people won’t see it as in the poll. Their presentations almost a year ago were stunning and momentum was high. Then, they seemed to take off for recess or something.

A few updates along the way with hard evidence would have helped immensely, assuming they actually had any hard evidence. Hope their strategy of waiting right up to midterms doesn’t cause a backlash. Again, HARD evidence will change my concerns l

[Jurdas]

12. We'll find out In a few months (midterms)

Stay tuned.

[everyonematters]

13. Politically, I think it is useful to look at Jan 6th as two separate events.

Those being the proceedings in the chamber and the attack on the Capital. I don't think that most swing voters view the proceedings as ominous as most Democrats. However, the attack is a different story. The great majority of the public is deeply disturbed by that. If the Jan 6th committee can show that Trump, the administration, and multiple members of Congress are duplicit in this act, it's possible that the electorate could deem the Republican Party to be unacceptable.

[uponit7771]

14. ***100% YES!!!*** Frame dems as the ones who didn't attack America on J6 and they all get quiet

... and or try to deflect to private property destruction.

It stings, matter of fact it gets them to shut up quick because they know there is there there ... the hearings wont be televised on FAUX News but no on else is going to allow them to forget about it ever.

[Wounded Bear]

15. I certainly hope so...

they seem to think they can ignore it. Dems need to start running ads including video from the insurrection.

[Quixote1818]

17. I find it hard to believe that didn't solidify around 2 to 5% to never vote for Trump again

Not sure how it will impact the midterms but Trump's approval sunk about 7 pts after Jan 6th. It sunk below 40%.

[Stuart G]

21. NO one knows the impact that Trump has had in the last year or so.

Last edited Mon May 2, 2022, 01:07 AM - Edit history (2)

My guess is that the hearings and the facts have destroyed Trump's ability to sway the total population. Yes, Trump still
has 25 to 30 percent of the population of the United States. But here is the truth..............................................
..
.....NO ONE HAS WON AN ELECTION WITH 25 TO 30% OF THE VOTE (in a system like ours with just 2 opposing parties)

In 1972, George McGovern got 37& of the vote and won one state

Richard Nixon got 60%, of the vote and won the rest of the states.

Trump is a loser. Everyone knows it. Donald Trump is also a liar and killer. He said the virus was ..".A HOAX " and those
words will define him forever. Let's say he runs and gets the Republican nomination in 2024. The democratic ads will
repeat those words. "It's a hoax" over and over again, thousands of times around the country & Trump lied and never apologized. But deep inside of me , I believe that he will....... NOT GET THE NOMINATION.....

It is simple and here is why...

If Stuart can figure this out, then professionals in the Republican Party can figure it out too. The expert professionals
in the Republican Party know he is a loser, and cannot be elected to anything. When those words are played thousands
of times over and over again, all over the country..."It's a hoax"...and people are reminded that Trump did
nothing to stop the virus and made fun of it, then professionals know what the end game is. The war will not start against Trump until 2023 or maybe later. Trump may think he can win (Yes, he is delusional) but the pros know better.
He can't win anything ever. He is a loser, a killer and a liar... End of rant.